Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction for Wednesday October 28, 2026
The Oklahoma City Thunder will travel to Dallas, Texas, Wednesday night for a Western Conference matchup against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oklahoma City enters the matchup undefeated at 4-0 after a double-digit win over Phoenix in their last outing. Dallas is 2-2 through four games after a win against Miami. Oklahoma City comes into Wednesday a -5.5 favorite and -205 on the money line. Dallas is a +170, and the total is set at 230.5. Stay in the news with our NBA Picks.
OKC looks to stay perfect
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been strong through their first four games of the season, averaging 111.3 points on 45% shooting. Defensively, Oklahoma City has been fantastic, holding opponents to under 101 points per game overall. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Oklahoma City offense this season, averaging 27.2 points, and he is tied for the team lead with 3.8 assists per game. Ajay Mitchell is 2nd on the Oklahoma City roster, averaging 16 points in just under 25 minutes per contest. Jalen Williams was averaging 13.7 points, good enough for third on the roster, before his season-ending injury. Chet Holmgren is averaging 12 points and leads the team, pulling in 9.3 rebounds per game.
Offensively, Oklahoma City was fantastic in its last outing, scoring 125 points on 51% shooting and 30% from beyond the arc. Defensively, Oklahoma City did the work, allowing 114 points on 43% shooting. Ajay Mitchell led the way for Oklahoma City with 30 points on 16 shots in 25 minutes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was second on the roster with 26 points, and big man Isaiah Hartenstein added 15 points and a team-leading 13 rebounds.
Key Injury Report for Oklahoma City:
- Thomas Sorber (Out) – Knee
- Chet Holmgren (Out) – Knee
- Nikola Topic (Out) – Back
- Ajay Mitchell (GTD) – Ankle
- Alex Caruso (Out) – Ankle
Dallas hunts the home upset
The Dallas Mavericks offense is scoring the ball well this season, averaging 112.5 points on 49% shooting. Defensively, Dallas has struggled, giving up 116 points per game this season, including 122 points in its most recent loss. Cooper Flagg is leading the Dallas offense this season, averaging 25 points and 6.3 assists per game. Kyrie Irving is second on the roster with 19 points, and Naji Marshall is averaging a fourth-best 13.7 points per game. PJ Washington is averaging 15.5 points and leads the team, pulling in 7.5 rebounds per game.
The Dallas offense did just enough in its last outing, scoring 113 points, including 60 in the second half, on 46% shooting and 30% from beyond the arc. Defensively, Dallas gave up 109 points on 45% shooting. Cooper Flagg led the Dallas offense with 29 points on 23 shots. PJ Washington added 20 points on 15 shots, and Kyrie Irving chipped in 18 points in 33 minutes. Max Christie added 11 points, and Walter Clayton Jr. led the way off the bench with 15 points on seven shots in 17 minutes.
Key Injury Report for Dallas:
- Tarik Biberovic (GTD) – Heel
- Santi Aldama (GTD) – Knee
- Sergio de Larrea (Out) – Knee
- Caleb Martin (GTD) – Thumb
- Naji Marshall (GTD) – Illness
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
Oklahoma City has impressed in its first four games, and the Thunder have enough talent to continue their winning streak Wednesday night. Despite dealing with several injuries, Oklahoma City has remained effective defensively, holding three of its first four opponents to 104 points or fewer. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the biggest problem for Dallas, as his ability to attack the basket, create separation, and get to the free-throw line will put constant pressure on the Mavericks defense. Dallas has struggled defensively early in the season, allowing at least 109 points in each of its first four games. The Mavericks have enough offensive talent to compete, especially with Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg, but Oklahoma City's defensive pressure and ability to force turnovers should make the difference. Look for the Thunder to control the second half and pick up another road victory.
Pick: Under 230.5
Both teams have offensive weapons capable of putting points on the board, but Oklahoma City's defensive consistency makes the under an appealing option Wednesday night. The Thunder have already held Denver to 84 points and the Clippers to 101, showing their ability to slow down opposing offenses and force difficult shots. Dallas has been more productive offensively in its two victories, but the Mavericks will have a tougher time finding clean looks against Oklahoma City's aggressive perimeter defense. Injuries could also impact the offensive rhythm of both teams, particularly with the Thunder missing several important contributors. Dallas should find some success attacking the paint and creating opportunities in transition, but Oklahoma City's ability to limit second-chance opportunities and force turnovers should keep the Mavericks from consistently scoring. Expect a competitive game that finishes below the projected total.