Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors Prediction and Picks - December 2, 2025
NBA action on Tuesday evening, and we have an Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors prediction locked and loaded for you. Oklahoma City comes in at a ridiculous 20-1 on the season, and they are off a 123-115 road win over Portland. The Warriors are off a 104-96 home win over New Orleans, and that puts them at 11-10 on the season. These teams met back in November, and the Thunder won that game by a score of 126-102. Can the Warriors get revenge for that loss? Read on to see our Thunder vs Warriors prediction.
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The Thunder Continue To Pile Up The Wins
Oklahoma City’s most recent game was a 123–115 win over Portland on November 30, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 26 points on 8-of-15 shooting, Chet Holmgren added 19 points and 9 rebounds, and Jalen Williams chipped in 18. The Thunder pulled away late with a 38-point fourth quarter, extending their winning streak to 12 games and improving to 20–1 on the season.
This Thunder team has been nothing short of dominant, averaging 122.2 points per game (3rd in the NBA) while shooting 48.7% from the field (6th) and 36.2% from three (12th). Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level, averaging over 32 points per game, and his streak of consecutive 20+ point outings has reached historic levels. Holmgren’s versatility as a rim protector and floor spacer has given OKC a unique two-way weapon, while Williams continues to thrive as a secondary scorer and playmaker. The Thunder also rank 2nd in free-throw percentage (84.1%), which makes them lethal in closing situations.
Defensively, Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league, allowing just 106.7 points per game (1st) and holding opponents to 42.2% shooting (1st). Their ability to contest shots and rebound (44 per game, 14th) has made them difficult to crack, even for high-powered offenses. With depth pieces like Isaiah Joe providing perimeter shooting and Luguentz Dort’s defensive presence, OKC has balance across the roster. Heading into San Francisco, the Thunder will look to keep their streak alive by leaning on their elite defense and Gilgeous-Alexander’s consistency to overwhelm a Warriors team missing its biggest star.
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Warriors Use Defense To Down The Pelicans
Golden State’s most recent game was a 104–96 win over New Orleans on November 29, where Jimmy Butler III led the way with 24 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds, while Gary Payton II added 19 points. The Warriors held the Pelicans to just 41% shooting and snapped a two-game losing streak, improving to 11–10 on the season.
Offensively, the Warriors have been middle of the pack, averaging 114.5 points per game (22nd) while shooting 45.1% from the field (24th) and 35.9% from three (14th). Stephen Curry, who leads the team with nearly 28 points per game, is out with a quadriceps injury, leaving Golden State without its primary scorer and floor-spacer. In his absence, Butler has shouldered the load, averaging 20.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, while Payton has stepped up with 19 points per game over the last 10. The Warriors still shoot well from the free-throw line (82.4%, 5th) and rebound at a respectable clip (43 per game, 20th), but their offensive ceiling is clearly lower without Curry.
Defensively, Golden State remains strong, allowing 113.6 points per game (7th) and holding opponents to 34.3% from three (7th). Draymond Green’s presence as a versatile defender and Butler’s two-way impact have kept them competitive, but the team has struggled to maintain consistency with multiple veterans sidelined. Their rebounding sits at 45.3 per game (23rd), which could be tested against OKC’s athletic frontcourt. Facing the league’s hottest team without Curry, the Warriors will need Butler, Payton, and Jonathan Kuminga to deliver offensively while leaning on their defensive structure to keep the game close.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors Pick
Thunder vs Warriors Spread Pick
- Oklahoma City -12 (4 Units)
The Thunder -12 looks like a strong play because Oklahoma City has been rolling through opponents with both offensive firepower and defensive dominance. In their most recent game, they beat Portland 123–115 behind 26 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 19 points and 9 rebounds from Chet Holmgren, and a balanced attack that saw Jalen Williams add 18. OKC is averaging 122.2 points per game (3rd in the NBA) while holding opponents to just 106.7 points (best in the league), a rare combination of pace and efficiency. Gilgeous-Alexander’s consistency, Holmgren’s rim protection, and Williams’ versatility give them multiple ways to control games, and their 84.1% free-throw shooting (2nd) makes them reliable in closing situations.
Golden State, meanwhile, is in a tough spot without Stephen Curry, who leads the team in scoring and stretches defenses with his shooting. The Warriors average 114.5 points per game (22nd) but have struggled to find rhythm offensively without their star, relying on Jimmy Butler III and Gary Payton II to carry the load. Defensively, they’re solid at 113.6 points allowed (7th), but against a Thunder team that ranks top‑10 in both scoring and rebounding, the margin for error is slim. OKC’s ability to dictate tempo and clamp down defensively makes them well-positioned to cover the -12, especially with Golden State missing its most dangerous weapon.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,763.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,400.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 4 |  Arthur Reyes | +375.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Thunder vs Warriors Over/Under Pick
- Under 221 (5 Units)
The Under 221 lines up well here because Oklahoma City has been the best defensive team in the league, holding opponents to just 106.7 points per game on 42.2% shooting, and Golden State has struggled to generate offense without Stephen Curry. The Warriors average 114.5 points per game, but that number dips significantly when Curry is sidelined, leaving Jimmy Butler III and Gary Payton II to shoulder the scoring load. Both teams rebound well and contest shots, with OKC ranking top‑10 in boards and Golden State holding opponents to 34.3% from three (7th). With the Thunder capable of slowing pace and the Warriors lacking their primary scorer, this matchup sets up as a grind where defensive execution outweighs offensive fireworks, making the Under 221 the sharper angle.
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