Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions for Saturday, October 31, 2026

A rough night in Dallas has left Oklahoma City looking for a response against unbeaten Houston. The Thunder are 4-1, second in the Northwest Division, after Wednesday's 120-96 loss to the Mavericks. Houston leads the Southwest at 5-0, coming off a 132-100 win in Milwaukee. The Rockets will complete a back-to-back Saturday after visiting Dallas on Friday. The game takes place at Toyota Center in Houston, with tipoff at 8:30 pm ET on NBA TV. Cash in a winner with our free NBA picks.

Oklahoma City Thunder Have Some Problems to Fix

The trouble for Oklahoma City in Dallas wasn't simply that shots weren't falling. The Mavericks were getting good looks from outside throughout the first half, and the Thunder never found a way to slow them down. Dallas made 11 three-pointers before halftime. Oklahoma City was still close enough to compete, trailing by six, but things went downhill after the break. The Thunder scored only 37 points in the second half, and what had been a competitive game turned into a 120-96 loss. Ajay Mitchell did his part with 29 points. There just wasn't enough help around him.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the player Oklahoma City depends on most, averaging 26 points per game. He scored 21 against Dallas, although that wasn't nearly enough to overcome the shooting problems elsewhere. The Thunder could certainly use Chet Holmgren back, particularly against Houston's frontcourt. Isaiah Hartenstein has been holding his own on the glass with 9.6 rebounds per game, but Oklahoma City is missing several important pieces. The Thunder had won their first four games by playing strong defense. Against Dallas, they couldn't get enough stops or make enough shots to stay close.

Injuries: Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic are out. Chet Holmgren is questionable.

Houston Rockets Didn't Need Sengun Against Milwaukee

Milwaukee was still hanging around after the first quarter Wednesday, trailing Houston by only two points. That changed quickly. The Bucks scored just 14 in the second, and by halftime the Rockets were already ahead 57-35. Fred VanVleet made sure there wouldn't be much of a comeback. He scored 15 straight Houston points during the third quarter and finished with 24. Amen Thompson added 23 in a game the Rockets won 132-100. What made the performance particularly impressive was that Houston managed all of it without Alperen Sengun.

Sengun has been Houston's leading scorer at 24.5 points per game, and his ability to pass out of the post gives the Rockets another way to attack defenses. Yet Wednesday showed they don't need to run everything through him. VanVleet was comfortable taking charge, and Houston had enough scoring to pull away before the fourth quarter. The Rockets are averaging 120.8 points while giving up 108.8. Facing Oklahoma City will bring a different defensive challenge, but Houston has already shown it can adjust when one of its main players is unavailable.

Injuries: Steven Adams is out. Alperen Sengun and Marcus Smart are questionable.

Key To The Game

Dallas made Oklahoma City pay for its poor shooting, and Houston has enough scoring threats to do something similar. The Thunder need Gilgeous-Alexander to get into better positions and create opportunities for teammates. Houston, meanwhile, must be prepared for a stronger defensive challenge than Milwaukee offered. Hartenstein could cause problems around the basket, especially if Sengun cannot play. The Rockets have several players comfortable handling the ball, but Oklahoma City's defense can still make life difficult when it's working properly.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Game Pick

• Houston Rockets

The Rockets have been convincing so far, and Wednesday's performance was another example of their scoring depth. VanVleet stepped forward without Sengun, helping Houston put 132 points on Milwaukee. Oklahoma City should offer more resistance, but the Thunder are missing important players and just struggled badly against Dallas. Gilgeous-Alexander can keep the visitors involved, although Houston has enough offensive options to answer. I expect a better showing from Oklahoma City than Wednesday, but I'm taking the Rockets to win at Toyota Center.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Over/Under Pick

• Under

Houston has been putting up big scores, but Oklahoma City is capable of making games uncomfortable for opposing offenses. The Thunder allow 104.6 points per contest, and Houston isn't giving up much more at 108.8. Dallas broke through against Oklahoma City on Wednesday, but that kind of outside shooting isn't something every opponent can repeat. Both teams also have strong rebounders who can limit easy chances around the basket. I expect a closer, more physical contest than Houston's win over Milwaukee. Under is my pick.