Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday January 9 2026
Thunder vs Grizzlies picks are tricky on Thursday night given the number of moving parts, but there is still value to be found if you focus on the right angle. This Western Conference matchup comes with heavy injury uncertainty on both sides, which is exactly why bettors should be selective and lean on trends when breaking down the latest NBA picks.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Thunder -4
- Total: Under 228
- Projected Final Score: Thunder 114, Grizzlies 109
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Oklahoma City vs Memphis
- Oklahoma City has won 15 straight games against Memphis.
- The Thunder have covered in both meetings this season, including a 16-point home win on December 22.
- Memphis is 1-5 straight-up and 2-4 against the spread over its last six games.
- The under is 5-2 in Memphis’ last seven games.
- Eight of the last nine meetings between these teams have stayed under the total.
- Over the last 15 games, Memphis ranks No. 9 in defensive rating, while Oklahoma City ranks No. 1.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | -4 (-110) | Over 228 (-110) |
| Memphis | +4 (-110) | Under 228 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Oklahoma City | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
| 01/08 | -3.5 (-114) | +3.5 (-106) |
| 01/09 | -4 (-114) | +4 (-106) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | 234 (-110) | 234 (-110) |
| 01/08 | 231 (-110) | 231 (-110) |
| 01/09 | 228 (-110) | 228 (-110) |
Team vs Team Game Preview and Analysis
Oklahoma City has dominated this series, winning 15 straight against Memphis and covering the number in both meetings this season. The most recent matchup was a comfortable 16-point Thunder win at home on December 22.
That said, this version of Oklahoma City is far from full strength. The Thunder needed overtime to escape Utah after blowing a 20-point lead, and they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games, including outright losses to Phoenix and Charlotte as double-digit favorites.
Memphis has not been much better. The Grizzlies are just 1-5 straight-up over their last six games, with the lone win coming by a single point. Offensively, they have struggled to generate consistency, which has helped drive several recent games under the total.
The biggest story here is availability. Memphis continues to carry one of the longest injury reports in the league, while Oklahoma City is also missing several key pieces. With so many regular rotation players sidelined or questionable on both sides, it is hard to project a clean game flow or trust either team to separate.
What does remain consistent is defense. Over the last 15 games, Memphis ranks inside the top 10 in defensive rating, while Oklahoma City sits at No. 1. Both teams typically like to play fast, but with this many injuries, a slower and more controlled pace makes a lot of sense.
Key Injuries and Notes (OKC and MEM)
- Memphis: Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, Zach Edey and Ty Jerome are expected to be out. Vince Williams Jr. and John Konchar are questionable.
- Oklahoma City: Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are expected to be out. Alex Caruso is questionable.
Final Score Prediction
Thunder 114, Grizzlies 109
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS: No play
- Total: Under 228
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