Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction and Picks - December 10, 2025
Wednesday evening on the NBA hardwood, and we have a Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction locked and loaded for you. This is a quarterfinal game of the NBA Cup. The Suns enter this contest at 14-10 on the year, while the Thunder come in at a blistering 23-1. Can the Suns pull off a huge upset in this one? Read on to see our Suns vs Thunder prediction.
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Suns Look To Pull Huge Upset
Phoenix’s most recent game was a 108–105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on December 8, where Mark Williams scored 22 points and Collin Gillespie added 19, including 12 in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. The Suns overcame Anthony Edwards’ 40‑point performance and snapped Minnesota’s five‑game winning streak, showing resilience despite missing Devin Booker and Jalen Green. It was a gritty road win that pushed Phoenix to 14–10 on the season and gave them momentum heading into this NBA Cup quarterfinal matchup.
Offensively, Phoenix averages 115.9 points per game (18th) while shooting 46.7% from the field (16th) and 36.8% from three (11th). Gillespie has emerged as a reliable perimeter threat, while Dillon Brooks has stepped up in Booker’s absence, averaging over 20 points in recent outings. The Suns also rank 16th in free‑throw percentage (79.0%) and pull down 42.5 rebounds per game (21st), giving them balance but not dominance on the glass. Their ball movement has been solid, with 25+ assists in several recent games, though turnovers remain an issue.
Defensively, Phoenix allows 113.5 points per game (8th), ranking among the better units in terms of scoring defense. They hold opponents to 35.9% from three (13th) and limit second‑chance opportunities with 41.7 rebounds per game (8th). Royce O’Neale has been a steady presence, contributing both on the boards and as a playmaker. The Suns’ defense has kept them competitive even when their offense sputters, but against Oklahoma City’s explosive attack, they’ll need to be sharp in rotations and disciplined in transition.
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The Incredible Start Continues
Oklahoma City’s most recent game was a 131–101 win over the Utah Jazz on December 7, where Jalen Williams scored 25 points and Chet Holmgren added 25 on 12‑of‑15 shooting. The Thunder dominated from start to finish, shooting 58% from the field and hitting 21 threes, extending their winning streak to 15 games and improving to 23–1 overall. Even without Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander, who missed the game with an elbow issue, Oklahoma City showed its depth and balance in a convincing road victory.
Offensively, the Thunder are elite, averaging 123.0 points per game (2nd) while shooting 49.7% from the field (3rd) and 37.4% from three (6th). Gilgeous‑Alexander leads the team at 32.8 points per game, while Holmgren and Williams provide consistent scoring support. Their free‑throw shooting is outstanding at 83.0% (2nd), and they rebound well with 44.7 boards per game (13th). Oklahoma City’s pace and efficiency make them one of the toughest teams to slow down, and they’ve scored 120+ points in four of their last five games.
Defensively, Oklahoma City has been just as dominant, allowing only 106.9 points per game (1st) and holding opponents to 42.8% shooting (1st). They rebound effectively (43.3 per game, 13th) and force turnovers with aggressive perimeter defense. Even with injuries to role players like Lu Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder’s depth has carried them. Their ability to combine elite scoring with lockdown defense has made them nearly unbeatable, and they enter this quarterfinal matchup as heavy favorites.
Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
Suns vs Thunder Spread Pick
- Phoenix +14.5 (4 Units)
Phoenix looks like a team worth backing with the points, even against the league’s hottest squad. Their most recent outing was a 108–105 win over Minnesota on December 8, where Mark Williams scored 22 and Collin Gillespie added 19, including 12 in the fourth quarter to close it out. That victory snapped the Timberwolves’ five‑game win streak and showed the Suns can grind out wins even without Devin Booker and Jalen Green in the lineup. For the season, Phoenix averages 115.9 points per game and shoots 36.8% from three, with Dillon Brooks and Gillespie stepping up to provide scoring balance. Their defense has also been steady, holding opponents to 113.5 points per game (8th), which gives them a chance to hang around against elite competition.
Oklahoma City is rolling, coming off a 131–101 win over Utah on December 7, their 15th straight victory, but laying 14.5 points is a big number against a Suns team that has shown resilience. The Thunder average 123.0 points per game (2nd) and lead the league in defense at 106.9 points allowed (1st), yet Phoenix’s ability to slow tempo and contest threes (35.9% allowed) makes them capable of keeping this closer than expected. Even if OKC’s stars like Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander and Chet Holmgren put up big numbers, the Suns’ balanced scoring and rebounding (42.5 boards per game) should help them avoid getting blown out. Taking Phoenix +14.5 feels like a smart play, as their defense and recent form suggest they can stay competitive in this spot.
Suns vs Thunder Over/Under Pick
- Under 225.5 (5 Units)
The Under 225.5 looks appealing in Suns–Thunder given how both teams have been trending defensively. Phoenix’s most recent outing was a 108–105 win over Minnesota on December 8, where they held the Timberwolves to just 43% shooting and leaned on their defense late to close it out. The Suns allow 113.5 points per game (8th) and limit opponents to 35.9% from three, which helps keep games tighter. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, just rolled past Utah 131–101 on December 7, but the Thunder still own the league’s top defense at 106.9 points allowed per game and hold opponents to 42.8% shooting (1st). With both teams capable of slowing pace and contesting shots, this matchup has the makings of a lower‑scoring battle than the line suggests, making the Under 225.5 a strong angle.
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