Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction and Picks - November 16, 2025
Use Code SSWC Pro hoops action on Sunday evening, and we have a Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks prediction locked and loaded for you. The Trail Blazers enter this game at 6-6 on the year and off a demoralizing 140-116 road loss to Houston. Dallas has had a rough 3-10 start and they are off a 133-127 OT loss to the Clippers. Read on to see our Trail Blazers vs Mavericks prediction.
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Blazers Get Crushed in H-Town
Portland comes into this matchup against Dallas sitting at 6-6 after a tough 140-116 loss to Houston in NBA Cup play. Deni Avdija led the way with 27 points, while Shaedon Sharpe added 31 in the prior game against Orlando, showing the young core’s ability to score in bunches. Jrue Holiday continues to provide veteran stability in the backcourt, averaging over six assists per game, while Jerami Grant has been a steady scoring option around 19 points per night. Donovan Clingan, the rookie center, has flashed potential with his rebounding and rim protection, though the Blazers have struggled to contain opposing bigs.
The Blazers’ offense has been respectable, averaging 120.6 points per game, ranking eighth in the league. Their pace is among the fastest in the NBA, but that tempo has come at the cost of defensive efficiency, as they’ve allowed 120.8 points per game, ranking 21st. Injuries have also played a role, with Scoot Henderson sidelined by a hamstring issue and Damian Lillard out for the season with an Achilles injury. Despite those setbacks, Portland has leaned on Sharpe’s scoring bursts, Avdija’s versatility, and Holiday’s leadership to stay competitive.
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Coach Tiago Splitter has emphasized ball movement and energy, but the Blazers’ inconsistency has been evident in their alternating wins and losses. Against Dallas, Portland will need Sharpe to stay aggressive, Grant to provide steady scoring, and Clingan to hold his own against Dereck Lively II in the paint. The Blazers have shown they can hang with playoff-caliber teams when their shooters are hot, but their defensive lapses remain the biggest obstacle to pulling off an upset on the road.
It Has Been A Slow Start For Dallas
Dallas comes into this matchup at 3-10, reeling from a three-game losing streak capped by a 133-127 double-overtime loss to the Clippers on November 14. Rookie Cooper Flagg has been the bright spot, flashing star potential with his athleticism and defensive instincts, while veteran Anthony Davis remains sidelined with a calf injury. The Mavericks’ offense has been their Achilles heel, averaging just 107.8 points per game, last in the NBA, despite playing at the fourth-fastest pace. Veterans Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell have provided scoring bursts, but the team has struggled to find consistency from deep, ranking last in three-pointers made per game.
Defensively, Dallas has been much stronger, ranking fifth in defensive rating at 111.3, but turnovers have been a killer. They’re averaging 17.1 giveaways per game, third-most in the league, which has stalled their ability to close out tight contests. Injuries have compounded the problem, with Kyrie Irving still recovering from ACL surgery and Dereck Lively II only just returning from a knee sprain. Coach Jason Kidd has leaned heavily on Flagg to carry the load, but the rookie has been asked to do too much too soon.
The Mavericks are desperate to avoid a winless homestand, and this matchup against Portland offers a chance to reset. Flagg’s energy, Davis’ potential return, and Lively’s rim protection are the keys, but Dallas must cut down on turnovers and find reliable scoring from its veterans. With front-office turmoil following the firing of GM Nico Harrison, the Mavericks are trying to stabilize around their young core, but the pressure is mounting quickly.
Portland Trailblazers vs Dallas Mavericks Pick
Trail Blazers vs Mavericks Spread Pick
- Portland -3.5 (2 Units)
Portland -3.5 looks like the right side given how the Blazers have been scoring and pushing pace compared to a Dallas team that’s been stuck in neutral. The Blazers are averaging over 120 points per game this season, with Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe both stepping up as reliable scorers, while Jrue Holiday provides veteran stability. Even in their recent loss to Houston, Portland showed flashes of offensive firepower, and their ability to force turnovers (third in the league at 17.5 per game) gives them extra possessions that Dallas simply hasn’t been able to match. With Scoot Henderson still sidelined, Portland has leaned on its depth, and that balance has kept them competitive against stronger opponents.
Dallas, on the other hand, has dropped three straight and sits at 3-10, struggling to find rhythm offensively. They’re 27th in the NBA in scoring at just 109.2 points per game, and even with Cooper Flagg showing promise and Anthony Davis anchoring the paint when healthy, the Mavericks haven’t had enough consistent production from their veterans. Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell have been streaky, and turnovers have killed momentum late in games. Facing a Portland team that thrives in transition and has multiple scoring options, Dallas looks vulnerable, and the Blazers’ ability to dictate tempo makes them well-positioned to cover the -3.5 spread.
Trail Blazers vs Mavericks Over/Under Pick
- Over 231.5 (3 Units)
The Over 231.5 feels like the right call because Portland has been playing at one of the fastest tempos in the league, averaging 120.6 points per game, while Dallas ranks fourth in pace despite sitting 27th in scoring at 109.2 ppg. The Mavericks’ offensive struggles have been real, but with Cooper Flagg pushing the tempo and Anthony Davis expected to contribute inside, they’re capable of generating enough possessions to keep this total high. Portland’s defense has allowed 119.3 points per game, and their turnover-heavy style often leads to quick scores on both ends. With both teams pushing pace and defensive lapses likely, this matchup sets up for a game where the scoreboard keeps moving and the Over 231.5 is well within reach.
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