Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction for Monday November 2 2026

Sacramento has played six games and lost all six.

The Kings just gave up 136 points to Memphis. Before that, New Orleans scored 132 against them.

Now they’re heading into Dallas against a Mavericks team that’s won three straight.

I’m not going to pretend this is some difficult choice. Sacramento has been awful defensively, and Dallas has been playing much better basketball.

The Kings visit American Airlines Center in Dallas on Monday, November 2, with tipoff at 8 PM ET. Dallas is coming off a 116-111 win over Houston on Friday, while Sacramento lost 136-105 in Memphis on Saturday. I couldn’t verify a current sportsbook spread or total, so I’m taking Dallas to win and using a target number for the total. Get into the action for the NBA season with our free NBA picks.

Sacramento Kings Can’t Stop Anybody

Sacramento is 0-6, including 0-4 on the road. The Kings have lost to Memphis twice, New Orleans, San Antonio and other opponents during this miserable opening stretch. The last two games have been particularly ugly. They’ve allowed 268 points combined while scoring 225. You aren’t going to win many games with that kind of defense.

The Kings are averaging about 110 points and allowing nearly 127. Their defensive rating is above 120 points allowed per 100 possessions, which is terrible. Opponents have been getting too many clean looks, and Sacramento hasn’t been making enough outside shots to compensate. The Kings are shooting only around 31 percent from three. Against Dallas, that’s a problem because the Mavericks have been much better at contesting shots.

Sacramento is missing Keegan Murray with an ankle injury, while Maxime Raynaud has a knee problem. Dylan Cardwell is out with a calf strain, and Ben Simmons remains sidelined after Achilles surgery. That’s a lot of missing size and versatility. The Kings need somebody to settle the offense down, but they also need better defensive communication. Right now, neither has been dependable.

Dallas Mavericks Are Starting to Win Games

Dallas is 4-2, including 2-1 at home. The Mavericks have won three straight, most recently beating Houston 116-111 Friday. They also beat Oklahoma City 120-96 Wednesday. Those are two impressive results against good opponents. Dallas isn’t just taking advantage of struggling teams.

The Mavericks average 114.3 points and allow 111.8. Their offensive rating is around 111, while the defense is allowing about 109 points per 100 possessions. That’s a much better balance than Sacramento has shown. Dallas has also been shooting 35 percent from three, compared with Sacramento’s 30.7 percent. That difference matters when both teams are trying to create space around the basket.

Dallas is dealing with injuries of its own. Dereck Lively II is out after foot surgery, Santi Aldama is sidelined with a knee injury, Sergio de Larrea has a knee problem, and Tarik Biberovic is unavailable with a heel issue. Those absences hurt the depth, particularly inside. But the Mavericks have been winning anyway, and their recent performances against Oklahoma City and Houston tell me the remaining rotation is doing enough.

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Moneyline

I’m taking Dallas. Sacramento is going to win eventually, and the Kings could surprise somebody if their outside shots start falling. But I don’t see a reason to expect that turnaround Monday. Dallas has won three straight, Sacramento has lost six straight, and the Kings are allowing nearly 127 points a game. That’s the kind of defense that makes an opponent look better than it really is. I think Dallas gets plenty of good shots and wins comfortably.

Over 229.5 Points — Target Total

I’ll look Over 229.5 if that’s the number available. Sacramento has been giving up 127 a game, and Dallas just scored 120 against Oklahoma City. The Mavericks should have plenty of scoring opportunities. The danger is Sacramento having another miserable shooting night and failing to contribute enough. The Kings scored only 105 against Memphis Saturday. But Dallas has been allowing around 112, so I think Sacramento can reach 110 if it avoids another collapse. Something like Dallas 123-111 works for me.

Final Picks: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline and Over 229.5 Points (target total)