San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, October 22, 2025

In the season opener for both teams in the Lone Star State, the Dallas Mavericks play host to the San Antonio Spurs. This game sees 2023 Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama facing off with #1 pick and highly touted rookie Cooper Flagg. Right here in this San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction, you can get the full score info as well as other free NBA picks.

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The Mavericks come into this opening game as a home favorite posted at -3.5 with a total of 226.

Can “The Alien” Stay Healthy for the Spurs?

Last season, the Spurs increased their win total by 12 games but still missed out on the playoffs after the 7-4 Wembanyama (23.4 ppg, 11 rpg, 3.8 blocks per game) was shut down for the season in February with a blood clot issue. He is a rising star who needs to be on the court, and he has a solid young core around him. The backcourt should be fun to watch with reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle (14.7 ppg), De’Aaron Fox (19.7 ppg), who they traded for last season, Devin Vassell (16.3 ppg), and the second pick in the last draft, Dylan Harper. San Antonio also has three forwards who averaged in double figures last season and added Carter Bryant with the 14th pick in the draft, so the lineup is balanced.

• After last season, longtime legendary coach Gregg Popovich, who has the most NBA wins, retired after 29 seasons, and Mitch Johnson takes over.
• The Spurs have not made the playoffs in the last six seasons.
• Last season, the Spurs lost three of four games against the Mavericks.
• The team was quiet in terms of off-season additions, and while they brought in three new players, none averaged over 9 ppg last season.
• Early on, San Antonio is a little banged up, as Jeremy Sochan (11.4 ppg) and Lindy Waters III (4.9 ppg) are out, Fox is doubtful, and Kelly Olynyk (8.7 ppg) is a game-time decision.

Luck is With the Mavericks

Everyone knew Flagg would be the #1 pick, and the Mavericks lucked out to get him, having only a 1.8% chance to get the first pick in the draft. He is a generational talent, as in his one season at Duke, he won the Naismith Award, averaging 19.2 ppg and 7.5 rpg. Last season, after the blockbuster Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis trade, the team finished 10th in the West and lost in the play-in tournament. Health is key this season and last season. Davis (24.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg) only played nine games for the team after the trade because of injuries, and they lost star Kyrie Irving (24.7 ppg) after 50 games with a torn ACL.

• They brought in D'Angelo Russell (12.6 ppg) to help out at the point until Irving comes back.
• Klay Thompson (14 ppg) is back, as is P.J. Washington (14.7 ppg), who signed an extension in the off-season.
• Irving will miss much of the season, and one of the concerns for the Mavs is their lack of backcourt depth.
• Dante Exum (8.7 ppg) and Daniel Gafford (12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg) are both listed as day-to-day.

 

Spurs vs. Mavericks Pick

Spread Pick Spurs vs. Mavericks

• Mavericks -3.5 (4 units)

The season opens, so all teams have hope, but the Mavs and Spurs have the talent to back it up as well. However, early on, injuries have hampered these teams, as the Spurs have a few banged-up players, and Irving will likely be out until the second half. This game is the Wemby vs. Flagg show, and there is a ton of hype in Flagg’s first regular-season game. Flagg may have some jitters as a 19-year-old, but he will play well and is backed by a deeper and healthier roster. Regarding the San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction, the Spurs have Wemby and young talent, but are without some players, and Fox is not likely to go. In contrast, the Mavs have more veteran players that will suit up, and in their house in the opener, they will get the win and cover.

 

Over/Under Pick for Spurs vs. Mavericks

• Under 226 (4 units)

Last season, both of these teams ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of points per game, but neither ranked in the top 19 in opponents’ ppg. I am leaning towards the Under in this game, as each team should be better on defense with Wemby back and healthy and Flagg, who is also a solid defender. Wemby led the league last season, averaging 3.8 blocks per game, and is a great rim protector. Flagg and AD also give Dallas a strong defensive presence in the paint. San Antonio is also banged up, and if Fox cannot go, they are missing a player who averaged 23.5 ppg last season. This will not be a high-scoring game with two teams that should be good on defense, on paper, so the Under is the pick.