Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks, Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, October 22, 2025
Use Code SSWC A pair of Eastern Conference sides get their season off the ground when they meet on Wednesday and to make sure you are ready to roll, we are dropping Wizards vs. Bucks predictions for you. Though they improved from the year prior, Washington (18-64 SU, 34-46-2 ATS in 2024-25) still had the second-worst team in the league last year. Milwaukee (50-38 SU, 45-41-2 ATS in 2024-25) made the postseason but were unable to find their way out of the first round. Jump ball on this matchup is scheduled for 8:00 EST from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. No air balls here-only slam dunks with our NBA Picks!
Almost nowhere to go but up for Wizards
For the second straight season, the Wizards failed to win even 20 games and finished with the second-worst record in the league as they missed the postseason for a fourth straight season. Brian Keefe gets a second full season at the helm and should have a little added leeway working to bring a young group up to speed.
Washington made a little noise in the offseason when they traded leading scorer Jordan Poole to Washington in a package deal that landed them C.J. McCollum. Their new shooting guard averaged 21.1 points in 56 games last season. The lottery balls were unkind to Washington, and they fell to the sixth pick in the 2025 draft, where they grabbed Texas guard Tre Johnson, who is expected to open the season backing up Bub Carrington at the point. Alex Sarr, the 3rd overall pick of the 2024 draft, had a decent rookie campaign, averaging 13 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 blocks per game.
Last season, the Wizards’ offense was 27th in the league with 108 points per game. They were 17th in the league shooting from beyond the arc, as they averaged 13.1 threes a night. Washington had a 1.61 assist-to-turnover ratio, 27th overall, and they grabbed 43.7 rebounds a game, 18th. On defense, they allowed opponents to score 120.4 points per game, the second-worst scoring defense in the league. Teams shot 47.1% overall against them and hit 14.3 threes per game. The Wizards were able to coerce 12.4 turnovers from foes via their 7.6 steals and 5.1 blocks per game.
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Team notes
- Bilal Coulibaly will miss the season opener due to a thumb injury.
- The 7-foot Sarr knocked down 105 three pointers last season, tied for sixth most among rookies.
- McCollum averaged 32.7 minutes per game last season, 51st in the league.
Bucks are trending in the wrong direction
The Bucks once again fell shy of their own expectations, which have always been the highest since winning the 20-21 championship. Unfortunately for them, they’ve been eliminated in the first round in the last three seasons and last year they failed to secure a Central Division title for the first time in seven seasons.
Somehow, Milwaukee escaped the offseason with superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo remaining with the team amidst a fury of trade rumors. To appease the power forward, the team added big man Miles Turner to the mix. To make room for their new center, who averaged 15.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2 blocks per game last season, the Bucks waived Damian Lillard, who was already out for the season. After the Magic put him on waivers, Cole Anthony signed with the Bucks, providing some solid depth at the guard position. Kyle Kuzma, acquired at the trade deadline, will be looked to for more offense this season.
The 2024-25 version of the Bucks had a scoring offense that averaged 115.5 points per game, 11th best in the NBA. They were eighth with 14.2 threes a night and they had the fourth-best shooting team from the field at 48.6%. Their 1.89 assist-to-turnover ratio ranked 14th and their 43.4 rebounds each game were 22nd overall. Milwaukee’s defense ranked 13th, allowing 113 points and 13.9 threes per game. They were able to average 7.3 steals and 4.7 blocks, leading to 12 turnovers a night from their opponents.
Team notes
- Prior to the start of the season, the team agreed to a four-year deal with fourth-year guard AJ Green.
- Antetokounmpo was second in the league with 30.4 points per game while putting in 34.2 minutes a night.
- Gary Trent Jr. averaged 2.4 threes per game, mostly coming off the bench last season.
Wizards vs. Bucks Picks
Spread Pick for Wizards vs. Bucks
- Bucks -9.5 (4 units)
In three meetings last season, the Wizards were 2-1 ATS but the Bucks beat them by at least 10 points twice. The Antetokounmpo-Turner combo is going to be a difference maker in this one. The center wants to ingratiate himself in front of Bucks fans for the first time, and Giannis just wants to be Giannis, which is always a problem for the opposition. Washington should be an improved side with McCollum leading the way, but they are very young and inexperienced in most other places. It’s going to take some time for the group to come together and figure things out, if they are even able to do so this season. With Antetokounmpo either tossing the Bucks on his shoulders once again or auditioning for a new team, I’m expecting him to come out of the gates loudly.
Take the Bucks giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for Wizards vs. Bucks
- Over 229 (5 units)
In three meetings last season, the teams combined to average 218.7 points per game. Milwaukee had one of the better offenses last season, while Washington had one of the worst. However, the Wizards were actually fourth in the league in pace, averaging 101.8 possessions per 48 minutes. They just struggled with the scoring part. McCollum will change that fortune for the club. Milwaukee ranked 14th on that end, getting 99.9 possessions per 48 minutes. Defense is middle of the road for either team, though Milwaukee will be a bit firmer down low with Turner in the mix. Regardless, I’m expecting defenses to be a little slow to the start of things, allowing plenty of early scoring for both sides. The over is 5-2 in the last seven games between the two teams.
Take the over.
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