New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 12, 2025
The biggest rivalry in all of baseball heats up on Friday night at Fenway Park with the Boston Red Sox (81-66) hosting the New York Yankees (81-65). The Yankees are coming off a win to avoid a series sweep while the Red Sox could not complete a sweep in losing their last game. Right here you can check out the pitching matchup, full score info, and other free MLB picks.
The Yankees are a road favorite in this series opener posted at -125 with the Red Sox at +105 and a total of 9 runs.
Yankees Turn Things Around in Win
After losing two in a row in a home series against the Detroit Tigers, who outscored them 23-3, the Yankees turned things around in Game 3 with a 9-3 win. Aaron Judge had two solo HR, Giancarlo Stanton also had a solo shot and Jazz Chisholm Jr. had two RBI. The Bronx Bombers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, in second place in the AL East, three games back of the Toronto Blue Jays and lead the AL Wild Card a half a game up on the Red Sox.
- On the season, New York is the highest scoring team in the Majors and ranks 17th in team ERA.
- Judge (.322 46 HR 100 RBI) leads baseball in batting average, ranks fourth in HR, and has three solo HR in the last three games.
- Cody Bellinger (.277 28 HR 90 RBI) leads the club in at bats and ranks second in RBI and in eight games this month is batting .233 with two HR and six RBI.
- Anthony Volpe (.206 19 HR 70 RBI) has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury and is listed as day-to-day.
- This season, the Yankees are 37-34 on the road.
Luis Gil (3-1 3.31 ERA 1.53 WHIP) gets the nod for Game 1 and was solid in his last start giving up one run on three hits in six innings in a 3-1 win over the Blue Jays. Since his season debut in early August, when he gave up five runs, he has not given up more than two runs in the last six starts. Gil faced the Red Sox and gave up two runs in six innings in a Yankees’ loss.
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Chapman’s Streak Over in Loss
In their last game, the Red Sox were on the road in a 5-4 loss to the Athletics, where closer Aroldis Chapman gave up the walk-off hit, which snapped his streak of 17 appearances, facing 50 batters, not allowing a hit. Four different players had an RB,I including Nate Eaton, who was the only player with a multi-hit game. Boston is 6-4 in their last 10 games, 3.5 games out of the top spot in the AL East, and a half-game back of the Yankees for the lead in the Wild Card.
- On the season, the Red Sox rank fourth in the Majors in runs scored and fifth in team ERA.
- Trevor Story (.263 24 HR 91 RBI) leads the team in batting average, HR, and RBI and has a HR and four RBI over the last four games.
- Jarren Duran (.258 14 HR 79 RBI) has the most hits and the second most RBI and while he has three RBI in the last four games, he struck out multiple times in those three games.
- On the season, Boston is 44-28 at home.
Lucas Giolito (10-3 3.38 ERA 1.26 WHIP) takes the hill for the opener and was not sharp in his last start giving up four runs on seven hits in five innings in a 5-1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. The Red Sox had won four of his previous starts, including one over the Yankees, where he gave up three runs.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Pick
Spread Pick for Yankees vs. Red Sox
- Red Sox +105
This season, the Red Sox have had the Yankees’ number, winning eight of 10 games facing them. Both of these teams are in good shape for the Wild Card, but each still has a chance to win the AL East. Gil has been solid in his last several starts after a bad season debut in the start of last month. Giolito was not sharp in his last outing, but the Red Sox did win his lone start against the Yankees, where he gave up three runs. Regarding the New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox prediction, both starters will pitch well but the Red Sox have a much better bullpen and that will be key in them taking the first game of this big series.
Over/Under Pick for Yankees vs. Red Sox
- Under 9 runs
The total has gone over for the last three games for the Yankees, while it has gone Under for the last three games for the Red Sox and that is the pick I am leaning towards. Giolito gave up four runs in a loss in his last start but was solid in his previous few. Gil has pitched very well in his last several starts after a shaky debut. Gil gave up two runs in his lone outing against the Sox and Giolito gave up three runs in his lone start against the Yankees. They will have similar outings in this game, so it will not be a pitcher’s duel but not a high scoring game, so the Under is the pick.
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