Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Picks and Prediction for Sunday, November 23, 2025
We have an interesting Week 12 game at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, as the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints battle it out in an NFC South battle for our Falcons vs. Saints prediction. The Saints are a 2-point favorite and the total is 40.5. The Falcons are struggling as they are third in the NFC South with a 3-7 record and are onl a five-game losing streak as they are coming off a 30-27 overtime home loss on Sunday to the Carolina Panthers. The Saints are last in the NFC South with a 2-8 record as they are coming off a 17-7 road win over the Carolina Panthers on Nov. 9. These teams will also play again in Week 18, so this will be a good test. On Stat Salt, we have free NFL picks and other sports are available this weekend.
Falcons Looking to Snap Losing Streak
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a tough 30-27 overtime home loss in Week 11 against the Carolina Panthers. Quarterback Kirk Cousins struggled in the game coming off the bench for an injured Michael Penix Jr. as he completed 6-of-14 passes for 48 yards. The team scored 27 points on 348 total yards (223 passing, 125 rushing). The team could sustain drives as they were 4-for-11 on third downs. However, they were able to run the ball effectively as Atlanta ran the football for 4.5 yards per attempt.
The defense of the Falcons allowed the Carolina Panthers to record 30 points on 486 total yards (419 passing, 67 rushing). The defense was able to do well as they held Carolina to 2-for-6 in the red zone and only allowed 2.7 yards per rushing attempt throughout the game. The Panthers' offense remained on the field as they held the football for 37:07.
The Atlanta Falcons have been a brutal offensive team as they rank 27th in the NFL with 19.5 points per game. With Penix (ACL) out for the season and big WR Drake London (knee) likely out, that means Kirk Cousins will be under center, and running back Bijan Robinson will need to take control. He has 158 rushing attempts for 783 yards (5.0 yards per carry) with four rushing touchdowns as well as 47 catches for 506 yards (10.8 yards per reception) with a pair of receiving touchdowns. Their defense is looking to get better than average as they are 19th in the sport with 23.9 opposing points per game.
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Key Injury Report for Atlanta
- Safety Xavier Watts: Illness (Questionable)
- OG Chris Lindstrom (foot) is questionable.
- LB Dee Alford (concussion) is questionable. Did practice in full on Thursday. Has 23 tackles and a pick
- Starting QB Michael Penix (ACL) is out for the season.
- WR Drake London (knee) is doubtful. Has 60 catches for 810 yards and six TDs.
Saints Looking to Figure Things Out
The New Orleans Saints are coming off a bye week, but they were able to record a road win in Week 10, 17-7 against Carolina. The offense was able to score 17 points on 388 total yards (266 passing, 122 rushing) in the game. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough completed 19-of-27 passes for 282 yards with a pair of passing touchdowns. New Orleans did turn the ball over once (one fumble lost) and failed to record a touchdown on either of their red zone drives. The Saints could not run the football too well as they averaged 3.3 yards per carry over the course of the game.
The defense allowed just seven points on 175 yards (102 passing, 73 rushing). New Orleans allowed Carolina to go 3-for-9 on third downs throughout the game as well and a big reason was the fact that the Panthers were limited to throwing for 3.8 yards per pass attempt. Their defense forced a pair of turnovers (one fumble recovery, one interception) and limited Carolina to 13 total first downs throughout the 60 minutes.
The Saints are putting up a terrible 15.5 points per game this season, which places them tied for 30th in the sport. Shough has completed 51-of-83 (61.4%) of his passes for 586 yards with three passing touchdowns and two interceptions as well as eight rushing attempts for 11 yards (1.4 yards per carry) without any touchdowns. The Saints rank 21st in the NFL with 25.0 points allowed per game.
Key Injury Report for New Orleans
- Offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga: Ankle (Questionable)
- Running back Alvin Kamara: Ankle (Questionable)
- Running back Kendre Miller (knee) is on the IR. Has 193 yards rushing.
- Offensive tackle Barrely Wesley (hip) is out.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Pick
Spread Pick for Falcons vs. Saints
- New Orleans Saints -130 (4 units)
Betting on the New Orleans Saints to win is a tough pill to swallow, especially after the team released veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks as a deep threat. However, the Atlanta Falcons are without their starting quarterback and likely without their best receiver in Drake London, among others. The Saints have momentum and getting their bye week before this game gives them a better chance to gameplan for this matchup. This game is not going to be pretty, but go with the New Orleans Saints at home to pull out the win.
Over/Under Pick for Falcons vs. Saints
- UNDER 39.5 (5 units)
Yes, this is a low total, but looking at the offenses for these two teams, there is not much else we can expect. The Saints have scored 30 total points over their previous three games, so they are not going to be able to score too well. Kirk Cousins did not look too well under center since joining the Falcons last offseason and Tyler Shough is still an unknown quantity at best. Atlanta has a 5-4-1 record for unders this season, while New Orleans has a 3-6-1 record thus far, so take UNDER 39.5 POINTS as the better bet here.
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