Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Prediction for Thursday September 24 2026
The Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET with coverage on Prime Video. Atlanta enters the Thursday night matchup at 0-2, while Green Bay is 1-1 following a 20-17 victory over the New York Jets. The Falcons are trying to recover from an ugly 34-3 home loss to Carolina in Week 2, while Green Bay gets a short week after surviving a much tighter contest. The current market has Green Bay favored by approximately 6.5 points with the total around 44. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Atlanta Faces an Early-Season Gut Check
Atlanta could hardly have asked for a more difficult way to enter a short week. The Falcons were beaten 34-3 by Carolina on Sunday, dropping them to 0-2 and increasing the pressure on an offense that has struggled to consistently finish drives. Now they have only a few days to make adjustments before playing in one of the NFL’s more difficult road environments.
The offensive problems are particularly concerning because Green Bay has shown that it can force opponents into uncomfortable situations. Atlanta cannot afford another game in which possessions stall before becoming legitimate scoring opportunities. Playing from behind would also allow Green Bay to become more aggressive defensively, making early-down efficiency particularly important for the Falcons.
Atlanta’s path to covering the spread probably requires keeping this game relatively slow and preventing Green Bay from building an early two-score advantage. The Falcons need to stay ahead of the chains, avoid turnovers and give their defense reasonable field position. Atlanta does not need an explosive offensive performance to remain competitive, but it does need a dramatically cleaner effort than the one it produced against Carolina.
Green Bay Has the Home-Field Edge
Green Bay improved to 1-1 by defeating the Jets 20-17 after opening the season with a loss. The Packers did not dominate the Week 2 matchup, but finding a way to win a close game matters heading into a Thursday night contest. They now return to Lambeau Field against an Atlanta team still searching for its first victory.
The Packers have a significant situational advantage because Atlanta is coming off such a poor offensive showing. Green Bay does not necessarily need to turn Thursday into a shootout. If the Packers can establish field position, avoid giving Atlanta short fields and steadily accumulate points, the pressure will increasingly shift toward the Falcons.
The biggest question is whether Green Bay can create enough separation to cover a spread of nearly a touchdown. Atlanta’s 31-point Week 2 defeat makes the Packers attractive, but Thursday games can produce unusual results because of the shortened preparation period. Green Bay therefore needs to convert scoring opportunities rather than simply controlling possession between the 20-yard lines.
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Prediction
Pick: Green Bay Packers -6.5
Green Bay -6.5 is the preferred side. Atlanta’s 34-3 loss to Carolina exposed enough offensive concerns to make it difficult to trust the Falcons on a short week, particularly at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is not being asked to cover double digits, and a touchdown victory would be enough at the current number. The Packers should have the better opportunity to control field position and force Atlanta to play from behind.
Pick: Under 44
The Under 44 is the stronger total angle. Atlanta scored only three points Sunday, and the Falcons’ most realistic route to remaining competitive involves slowing the game rather than trading scores with Green Bay. The Packers are also coming off a 20-17 game. A result somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-13 or 27-14 would put Green Bay in position to cover while still keeping the game beneath the current total.
Final Picks: Green Bay Packers -6.5 and Under 44