Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Prediction for Friday August 28, 2026

The Atlanta Falcons head to South Florida to face the Miami Dolphins on Friday, August 28, 2026, in the preseason finale for both teams. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Atlanta enters the matchup at 1-1, while Miami is 0-2 after losses to Washington and the New York Giants. The Falcons have announced that their starters will see action Friday, adding considerably more intrigue to what would ordinarily be a reserve-heavy preseason finale. Get ready for the action with our free NFL picks.

The betting market has been moving, so this is one to monitor closely before kickoff. Current prices are not completely uniform across books, with the most important factor being how oddsmakers react to Atlanta's announced plan for its starters. With that in mind, Atlanta is the side I prefer, while the total in the 36.5 range provides an interesting opportunity after the very different offensive performances these teams produced last weekend.

Falcons Look to Build on Dominant Performance

Atlanta's preseason couldn't have started much worse. The Falcons were beaten 27-7 by Denver in their opener, but their response against Indianapolis was about as convincing as they could have wanted. Atlanta crushed the Colts 34-6, improving to 1-1 while outgaining Indianapolis 461-164.

The quarterback play was particularly impressive. Cooper Rush and Jack Strand combined to complete 14 of 15 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown during the first half, while Atlanta's offensive line created running lanes and kept its quarterbacks clean. Strand finished with 212 passing yards and also contributed a rushing touchdown as the Falcons turned the game into a rout.

Friday presents a different situation because Atlanta intends to use its starters. One of the biggest questions surrounds Michael Penix Jr., who has now been medically cleared for 11-on-11 work after recovering from his knee injury. The Falcons were still monitoring how his body responded before determining his exact role Friday.

There's also an obvious storyline surrounding Tua Tagovailoa, who returns to Miami after joining Atlanta. He saw limited action in the preseason opener, completing 3 of 5 passes for 22 yards. With Penix and Tagovailoa competing for the starting job, Atlanta has more reason than most teams to use meaningful quarterback snaps in its preseason finale.

Even after the starters leave, the Falcons have shown they can move the football with their reserves. That's important when handicapping preseason games. Atlanta doesn't necessarily lose its offensive advantage when it reaches the second and third units, especially after what that group accomplished against Indianapolis.

Dolphins Searching for Offensive Answers

Miami's preseason has gone in the opposite direction. The Dolphins opened with a 20-7 loss to Washington and followed it with an ugly 26-3 defeat against the New York Giants. That leaves Miami 0-2 with only 10 points scored across two preseason games.

The three-point showing against New York is particularly concerning heading into this matchup. Miami's reserve quarterback situation hasn't produced much offensive momentum. Quinn Ewers returned to practice after dealing with a groin injury, but he completed only 1 of 8 passes for 27 yards in the preseason opener. With Ewers unavailable against New York, Cam Miller completed 6 of 11 passes for 60 yards, while Mark Gronowski went 2 of 5 for one yard.

That is a major contrast to Atlanta's quarterback depth. The Falcons just received a highly efficient performance from their reserve group, while Miami is still trying to determine what it has behind its starter.

There are some reasons for Miami to expect improvement. Rookie receiver Chris Bell is expected to play Friday as he works his way back from an ACL injury, and Ewers' return to practice potentially gives the Dolphins another option at quarterback. Still, Miami has to prove it can translate those developments into points after scoring seven and three in its first two games.

Home field matters somewhat in preseason football, but personnel usage matters more. Atlanta's decision to play starters combined with the performance of its reserves creates a difficult matchup for a Miami team that has been outscored 46-10 through two games.

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Atlanta Falcons ATS

I'm taking Atlanta against the spread. The Falcons' 34-6 demolition of Indianapolis showed that their reserve units are capable of controlling a preseason game, and now Atlanta plans to add meaningful work from its starters. That's an attractive combination. Miami has been held to 10 total points through two games and hasn't received enough production from its backup quarterbacks. Atlanta should have the quarterback and depth advantage for much of the evening, making the Falcons my preferred side Friday.

Pick: Under 36.5

I'm also taking Under 36.5. Atlanta exploding for 34 against Indianapolis makes the over tempting, but Miami's offense is the problem. The Dolphins have scored just 10 points in two games, including three against New York, and their reserve passing game has struggled badly. Atlanta could control this matchup without the game becoming particularly high scoring. A result somewhere around 23-10 Atlanta would fit both the personnel situation and what we've seen from Miami offensively this preseason.

Final Picks: Atlanta Falcons ATS and Under 36.5.