Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Prediction and Picks - Sunday, November 2, 2025
The Patriots are out for a sixth straight win this Sunday as they take on the struggling Falcons. Find out more about this big NFL Week 9 game and get great side and total picks with our Falcons vs. Patriots prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 1pm ET at Gillette Stadium, home of the Patriots.
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Falcons in slump after big loss
The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) have hit a low point in what looked like a promising 2025 season with two straight losses. While going down 20-10 to the 49ers in San Francisco was not exactly a disaster, Atlanta fans were fuming the following weekend as they saw their team lose 34-10 at home to the struggling Dolphins, with Tua Tagovailoa dominating the Falcons' backfield.
Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins got his first start of the season last Sunday due to an injury to Michael Penix Jr. Cousins completed 21-of-31 for 173 yards and could not get the Falcons' offense moving. There was little joy on the ground, either, as Atlanta picked up just 45 rushing yards. The Falcons scored just three points across the first three quarters before finally getting on the board with a six-yard run from Tyler Allegier when the game was already out of reach. Bijan Robinson was held to 65 yards combined in back-to-back losses after rushing for 170 yards against Buffalo. The Falcons rank 11th in rushing yards per game (123.3) and 16th in yards per carry (4.4).
The team ranks 28th in the NFL with 17.1 points scored per game and second in total yards allowed per game (275.6).
Penix, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts were among 12 players listed as limited on the Falcons' Thursday injury report, with Allgeier and LT Jake Matthews also joining that group. WR Darnell Mooney resumed full participation after recovering from a hamstring complaint. London and Pennix Jr. are expected to play this week.
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Pats gunning for AFC East title
The New England Patriots (6-2) were a long shot to overtake the Bills and claim the AFC East title this year after going 4-13 in 2024. This team has been turned around with new head coach Mike Vrabel and with Drake Maye flourishing at quarterback, and with five straight wins, they sit half a game ahead of Buffalo in the standings, having pulled off a huge upset against Josh Allen and Co. at the start of October.
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A strong surge in the second half led New England to victory last week over Cleveland after floundering early against a strong Browns defense. The Pats were held to three field goals in the first half and then came storming back by scoring three touchdowns in the third quarter on their way to a 32-13 win. Maye completed 18-24 passes for 282 total yards, three TDs, and an interception, despite intense pressure, which led to the QB getting sacked six times, also picking up 50 rushing yards, including a 28-yard scramble, which set the Pats up for their third score of the third quarter to put the game out of reach. He leads all starting NFL QBs with a 75% completion rate on the season, while his mark of 9 Y/A comes in second behind Sam Darnold.
The defense has been outstanding thus far, as they rank fourth in the NFL, allowing 18.3 points per game. They also rank second in rushing yards allowed per game (76) and yards per rush allowed (3.5). Offensively, they rank third in yards per play (6.2) and 25th in yards per rush (3.9).
RB Rhamondre Stevenson was the only non-participant in New England practice on Thursday as he struggles with a toe injury and will not play this week. WR Stefon Diggs returned to full participation, as did C Garrett Bradbury (toe) and DT Khyiris Tonga (knee).
Falcons vs. Patriots Pick
Spread Pick for Falcons vs. Patriots
- Patriots -5.5 (five units)
The Patriots are unstoppable right now and look good to beat Atlanta by at least a score, especially with Pennix and London banged up. Atlanta's running game is its strength and will be slowed down by one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. Maye should certainly find this Falcons pass rush easier to deal with after getting roughed up by Myles Garrett and the Browns last time out. The Pats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and 6-2 overall in 2025. Atlanta has failed to cover in its last two games and is 1-2 ATS away from home.
Take the Patriots.
Over/Under Pick for Falcons vs. Patriots
- Under 43.5 (four units)
This strong New England defense stifled Cleveland last week, and it should have no trouble doing the same to the Falcons, keeping the score down below the over. The Falcons are hurt badly by the absence of their starting QB and have also struggled to complete drives all year, with a third-down conversion rate of 33.3% (15th in NFL) and a RZ scoring percentage of just 45% (29th in NFL). Atlanta is a hard team to advance against in its own right and allows 275 yards per game, the second-best mark in the league. It is 1-5-1 on the over this year.
Take the under.
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