Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The Atlanta Falcons travel to Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, September 13, in the 2026 regular-season opener for both teams. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with FOX carrying the game. Pittsburgh comes into the season after finishing 10-7 and winning the AFC North in 2025, while Atlanta finished 8-9 and missed the postseason. The early betting market has Pittsburgh favored by approximately a field goal, setting up what could be one of the more competitive games on the Week 1 afternoon slate. The NFL season is just kicking off make sure you capture all the fun with our free NFL picks.

Atlanta Enters Week 1 With a Major Quarterback Decision

The biggest storyline surrounding Atlanta is one that still hasn't been officially settled. Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. have competed for the starting quarterback position, and the Falcons have not officially announced which quarterback will get the first snap against Pittsburgh. Tagovailoa started Atlanta's first preseason game, but the coaching staff made it clear at the time that the assignment did not automatically make him the regular-season starter.

Penix complicates the decision because of his recovery from an ACL injury. He returned to full practice late in the preseason, and Atlanta has continued evaluating whether he is ready to reclaim the starting role. Tagovailoa has therefore been viewed as the safer Week 1 option, but until Atlanta makes its announcement, bettors have to account for uncertainty at the most important position on the field.

Whichever quarterback gets the assignment will have an impressive collection of offensive talent around him. Bijan Robinson remains the centerpiece of Atlanta's running game, while Drake London, Jahan Dotson and Kyle Pitts give the Falcons multiple options through the air. Robinson is particularly important in this matchup because establishing the running game would reduce Pittsburgh's opportunities to attack Atlanta's quarterback with obvious passing situations.

Atlanta's defense could be the unit that keeps this game close. The Falcons finished last season with 57 sacks, giving them a pass rush capable of challenging Pittsburgh's offensive front. If Atlanta can create pressure without consistently sending extra defenders, the Falcons have the defensive formula needed to make this a lower-scoring Week 1 battle.

Pittsburgh Begins the Mike McCarthy Era With Aaron Rodgers

The Steelers enter a new era under head coach Mike McCarthy, but the quarterback position is considerably more settled than Atlanta's. Aaron Rodgers sits atop Pittsburgh's depth chart, with Mason Rudolph behind him. That stability is meaningful in a Week 1 matchup where the opposing team is still working through its quarterback decision.

Rodgers gives Pittsburgh a veteran quarterback capable of controlling the game at the line of scrimmage, but the Steelers should not need to put the entire offensive burden on him. Jaylen Warren entered training camp atop the running back depth chart, with Rico Dowdle giving Pittsburgh another proven option in what McCarthy has described as a potentially balanced backfield. Pat Freiermuth remains the starting tight end and provides Rodgers with an established target in the middle of the field.

The primary concern is Atlanta's ability to generate pressure. Pittsburgh allowed 31 sacks last season compared with Atlanta's 57 defensive sacks, making protection one of the most important matchup variables. Rodgers' experience should help Pittsburgh identify pressure and get the football out quickly, but Atlanta can make this game considerably more difficult if it consistently wins up front.

Pittsburgh also owns one advantage that should not be overlooked: location. Opening the season at Acrisure Stadium rather than taking an immediate road trip gives the Steelers a meaningful edge, especially against an Atlanta offense potentially breaking in a different starting quarterback.

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

There isn't enough separation between these teams to justify laying a large number, but Pittsburgh -3 is playable. The Steelers have the more settled quarterback situation with Rodgers, they're playing the opener at Acrisure Stadium, and Atlanta's uncertainty at quarterback introduces another variable into an already difficult road assignment. The Falcons' pass rush and Robinson's presence should prevent Pittsburgh from simply controlling the game from start to finish, which is why I would not want the Steelers at -3.5 or higher. At a field goal, however, Pittsburgh has enough advantages to warrant the side. Take Pittsburgh -3.

Pick: Under 43.5

The Under is the stronger total angle if 43.5 is available. Atlanta's best path is likely to involve Robinson, its running game and a defense that generated 57 sacks last season rather than asking an unsettled quarterback situation to produce a shootout on the road. Pittsburgh has an experienced quarterback but is beginning a new coaching era, which could also encourage a controlled offensive approach in Week 1. Both teams have reasons to emphasize field position and avoid giving the opposing defense short fields. A game landing somewhere around 23-17 or 24-20 fits the matchup profile, making Under 43.5 the preferred total.

Final Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 and Under 43.5