Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Picks - December 11, 2025
It's Thursday Night Football, and we have an Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction locked and loaded for you. The Falcons come in off a 37-9 home loss to the Seahawks, and they are now 4-9 on the year. Tampa Bay has gone 7-6 on the year, but they are off a very bad 24-20 home loss to the Saints. Tampa won the first meeting this year by a score of 23-30. Read on to see our Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction.
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Falcons Get Crushed By Seattle
Atlanta’s most recent game was a 37–9 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on December 7, a contest that unraveled after halftime when Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff of the third quarter 100 yards for a touchdown. Kirk Cousins threw for 162 yards but was intercepted twice, and Bijan Robinson managed 86 rushing yards on 20 carries. The Falcons were held without a touchdown, settling for three field goals, and the defeat marked their seventh loss in eight games, officially eliminating them from playoff contention.
Offensively, Atlanta averages 330.0 total yards per game (16th), with 206.4 passing yards (18th) and 123.6 rushing yards (12th). Robinson remains the centerpiece, ranking among the league’s top backs in yardage, while Kyle Pitts continues to be a reliable target, highlighted by his 90‑yard receiving effort against Seattle. The Falcons’ struggles come in the red zone and on third down, where drives stall too often, leaving them at just 19.4 points per game (27th). Turnovers have also been costly, with 14 giveaways (12th most), often flipping momentum in close contests.
Defensively, Atlanta allows 322.5 yards per game (14th), ranking well against the pass (191.5 yards, 9th) but struggling against the run (131.0 yards, 24th). They give up 24.1 points per game (20th) and have forced only 10 takeaways (12th), leaving them unable to consistently change games with big plays. The secondary, led by A.J. Terrell, has been solid, but the front seven has struggled to generate pressure. Against Tampa Bay’s balanced attack, the Falcons will need to tighten their run defense and avoid the special teams breakdowns that doomed them against Seattle.
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Bucs Suffer Bad Loss To Saints
Tampa Bay’s most recent game was a 24–20 loss to the New Orleans Saints on December 7, where rookie quarterback Tyler Shough ran for two touchdowns to stun the Bucs. Baker Mayfield completed just 14 of 30 passes for 122 yards with one interception, while Rachaad White and Sean Tucker combined for 68 rushing yards and a score. Tampa Bay had chances late, including a dropped pass in the end zone by Emeka Egbuka, but couldn’t finish drives in a rain‑soaked contest. The defeat was their fourth in five games, dropping them to 7–6 and into a tie with Carolina atop the NFC South.
Offensively, the Buccaneers average 315.0 total yards per game (22nd), with 199.8 passing yards (20th) and 115.2 rushing yards (20th). Mayfield has thrown for over 2,400 yards this season, but his efficiency has dipped in recent weeks, and injuries to key receivers like Mike Evans have limited the passing attack. White has been steady in the backfield, while Egbuka has emerged as a reliable target with over 700 receiving yards. Tampa Bay scores 23.0 points per game (17th) and has protected the ball well, committing only 10 turnovers (3rd fewest), which has kept them competitive despite offensive inconsistency.
Defensively, Tampa Bay allows 338.4 yards per game (21st), struggling against the pass (237.8 yards, 27th) but ranking strong against the run (100.6 yards, 8th). They give up 25.0 points per game (23rd) but have forced 12 takeaways (7th), with Antoine Winfield Jr. and Lavonte David leading the charge. The Bucs’ ability to stop the run will be tested against Robinson, while their secondary must rebound after being picked apart by Shough and the Saints. With the division race tightening, Tampa Bay knows this is a must‑win game to avoid slipping further behind.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick
Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread Pick
- Atlanta +4 (5 Units)
Atlanta +4 feels like a live number in this matchup, especially considering how competitive they’ve been despite their record. Their most recent outing was a 37–9 loss to Seattle on December 7, a game that got away after halftime when Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff of the third quarter 100 yards for a touchdown. Kirk Cousins threw for 162 yards but was intercepted twice, and Bijan Robinson ran hard for 86 yards on 20 carries. Even in defeat, Robinson showed he can move the chains against a strong defense, and Atlanta’s passing defense remains one of the better units in the league, allowing just 191.5 yards per game (9th). Getting more than a field goal here gives them room to lean on their run game and keep things close.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is coming off a 24–20 loss to New Orleans on December 7, where Baker Mayfield struggled to find rhythm, completing just 14 of 30 passes for 122 yards with one interception. The Bucs average 23.0 points per game (17th) but have been inconsistent, and their defense has been vulnerable against the pass, ranking 27th at 237.8 yards allowed per game. While they’ve been solid against the run, Atlanta’s ability to control tempo with Robinson and limit turnovers could neutralize that edge. With the Falcons’ defense capable of slowing Mayfield and the Bucs’ passing attack, grabbing the +4 looks like a solid position, as Atlanta has the tools to grind out a tight divisional game.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Over/Under Pick
- Over 44.5 (4 Units)
The Over 44.5 looks like a solid angle in Falcons–Buccaneers given how both defenses have been trending. Atlanta’s most recent outing was a 37–9 loss to Seattle on December 7, where Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions and the Falcons’ defense gave up big plays on special teams and through the air. They allow 24.1 points per game (20th) and have struggled against the run (131.0 yards per game, 24th). Tampa Bay, meanwhile, just dropped a 24–20 game to New Orleans on December 7, and while Baker Mayfield was inconsistent, the Bucs still average 23.0 points per game (17th) with a balanced attack. Their defense has been vulnerable against the pass (237.8 yards per game, 27th) and gives up 25.0 points per game (23rd). With Atlanta capable of moving the ball on the ground behind Bijan Robinson and Tampa Bay’s offense finding ways to score despite recent struggles, this divisional matchup sets up for enough points on both sides to push past the total.
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