Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The Baltimore Ravens head to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, to face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, September 13, as both teams begin the 2026 NFL regular season. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. Baltimore enters another season with championship expectations, while Indianapolis begins the year looking to build around an offense that has more quarterback stability than it had entering the 2025 campaign. This matchup provides a fascinating contrast between Baltimore's established contender and an Indianapolis team hoping improved health and personnel can close the gap. With the NFL season just kicking off it is important to find all the best free NFL picks.

Baltimore Remains Built Around Lamar Jackson

Everything starts with Lamar Jackson for Baltimore. The Ravens remain one of the NFL's most difficult teams to prepare for because Jackson changes the geometry of a defense. Indianapolis has to account for designed quarterback runs, scrambles and Baltimore's conventional passing game simultaneously, making discipline along the defensive front essential.

Baltimore also continues to possess the kind of supporting cast that allows the offense to attack opponents in different ways rather than relying exclusively on Jackson. That becomes particularly important against an Indianapolis defense with considerable talent at multiple levels. Baltimore's objective should be to force the Colts to defend the entire field and create favorable situations rather than repeatedly challenging Indianapolis' best individual defenders.

The Ravens also enter the season with expectations extending well beyond simply making the playoffs. Baltimore has been priced among the more prominent Super Bowl contenders entering 2026, reflecting the market's continued confidence in Jackson and the overall roster. That doesn't automatically make Baltimore the correct Week 1 bet, but it illustrates the difference in expectations surrounding these teams.

The biggest advantage Baltimore brings into Indianapolis may simply be continuity at quarterback and within its overall identity. There is very little mystery about what the Ravens want to do. The challenge is stopping it.

Daniel Jones Returns to Lead Indianapolis

The Colts enter the season with Daniel Jones firmly established as their starting quarterback. Jones re-signed with Indianapolis in March after his 2025 season ended when he was placed on injured reserve in December. He spent the offseason recovering from his Achilles injury and was healthy enough by early September to discuss his return to the field after completing the rehabilitation process.

Indianapolis also settled the rest of its quarterback hierarchy before Week 1. Anthony Richardson Sr. won the backup job, while Riley Leonard enters the season as the third quarterback. That removes one of the uncertainties that surrounded Indianapolis during previous seasons and allows the offense to enter Baltimore week knowing exactly who is running it.

Jones has some significant help. Jonathan Taylor remains atop the Indianapolis running back depth chart, while the offensive line includes Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Tanor Bortolini, Matt Goncalves and Jalen Travis on the preseason depth chart. Indianapolis also added veteran receiver Keenan Allen, giving Jones an experienced option in the passing game. Tyler Warren is another potentially important piece at tight end, although his health entering Week 1 warrants attention.

The Indianapolis defense has enough recognizable talent to make Baltimore work. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart anchor the interior, Laiatu Latu provides pressure off the edge, and the secondary includes Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward Sr. and Camryn Bynum. That is an intriguing collection of personnel for a defense preparing to deal with Jackson.

Can Indianapolis Make Baltimore Play From Behind?

That's the key question in this matchup. Indianapolis' best opportunity is to establish Taylor early, keep Jackson on the sideline and prevent Baltimore from building the type of lead that forces Jones into obvious passing situations.

Jones' mobility following the Achilles injury is another variable. Indianapolis doesn't need him functioning as a primary runner, but his ability to move within the pocket and escape pressure could be important against Baltimore. The Colts deliberately held Jones out of their first preseason game while Richardson and Leonard handled the quarterback work, illustrating the priority Indianapolis placed on getting its starter to Week 1 healthy.

Baltimore presents a much more difficult regular-season challenge. Indianapolis has upgraded pieces around Jones, but the Colts now have to prove that those additions can translate into consistent offense against one of the AFC teams expected to contend deep into January.

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3.5

Baltimore is the preferred side if the spread is available at -3.5. Indianapolis has enough talent to make this competitive, particularly with Taylor supporting Jones and an upgraded secondary attempting to contain Baltimore's passing game. The difference is Jackson. Baltimore enters Week 1 with an established quarterback, established offensive identity and championship-level expectations, while Indianapolis is asking Jones to return from a significant Achilles injury and immediately deal with a difficult opponent. The Colts could keep this within one possession for much of the afternoon, but Baltimore has more ways to create decisive plays. Take the Ravens -3.5.

Pick: Under 47.5

Under 47.5 is the preferred total. Indianapolis' best offensive strategy should involve Taylor and a controlled rushing attack that shortens the game while limiting Baltimore's possessions. The Colts have also assembled enough defensive talent to avoid turning this into a completely one-sided matchup. Baltimore can certainly score, but the Ravens don't necessarily need to force an aggressive tempo if they're controlling the game. Jones returning from his Achilles injury provides another reason to expect Indianapolis to emphasize manageable situations rather than a high-volume passing attack. A Baltimore victory in the neighborhood of 27-17 or 27-20 puts us on the right side of the number.

Final Picks: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 and Under 47.5