Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Picks - September 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC NFL action on Sunday afternoon, and we have a Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction lined up and ready to roll. The Ravens are off to a slow 1-2 start, which includes a 38-30 home loss to the Lions on Monday night. Kansas City is also 1-2 on the year, but they come in off a 22-9 road win over the NY Giants. Which team will make it back to .500? Continue reading to see our Ravens vs Chiefs Prediction
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Ravens Stunned At Home By Lions
Baltimore enters Week 4 at 1–2, but they’ve been the most explosive offense in football through three weeks, leading the NFL in scoring at 37.0 points per game. Lamar Jackson has been lights out, throwing for 722 yards and 9 touchdowns with just one interception, while completing 70.2% of his passes. He’s also added 117 rushing yards and remains the league’s most dangerous dual-threat quarterback. Derrick Henry has brought physicality to the backfield, averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 3 touchdowns, though his two fumbles have both led to short-field scores for opponents. Rookie WR Zay Flowers leads the team with 214 receiving yards, while Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews have combined for six touchdowns, giving Jackson a full arsenal of weapons in Todd Monken’s aggressive scheme.
The Ravens opened the season with a 41–40 shootout loss to Buffalo, followed by a dominant 41–17 win over Cleveland, and a 38–30 loss to Detroit on Monday night. They’ve scored 30+ in every game and rank top-3 in explosive play rate, red zone efficiency (81.3%), and yards per play (6.7). Monken has leaned into tempo, spacing, and vertical concepts, using play-action and motion to isolate matchups and stretch defenses. The offensive line has allowed 12 sacks — second-most in the league — but Jackson’s escapability has masked some of the breakdowns. Baltimore has converted 46.2% of third downs and committed just four penalties all season. If they can clean up protection and ball security, this offense is built to score with anyone, anywhere.
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Defensively, Baltimore has been a liability. They rank dead last in total defense (420.3 YPG), 31st against the pass (266.3 YPG), and 30th against the run (149.0 YPG), allowing 11 touchdowns and forcing just two turnovers. The front seven has struggled to generate pressure, with only four sacks through three games, and opponents are averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Roquan Smith leads the team with 28 tackles, but the secondary has been shredded by vertical routes and layered concepts, giving up six passing scores and ranking 29th in coverage success rate. The Ravens are allowing touchdowns on 83.3% of red zone trips and have surrendered 30+ points in every game. If they can’t contain Mahomes and force third-and-long, they’ll be in another shootout — and once again relying on Jackson to bail them out.
Chiefs Get 1st Win Of The Year
Kansas City enters Week 4 at 1–2 after a much-needed 22–9 win over the New York Giants, where the defense controlled the game and Patrick Mahomes delivered a clean, efficient performance. Mahomes went 24-of-35 for 263 yards and two touchdowns, bringing his season totals to 669 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 59.0% completion. Travis Kelce remains the heartbeat of the passing game, leading the team with 18 receptions and 3 touchdowns. Skyy Moore has stepped up in the absence of Rashee Rice, adding 154 receiving yards and a score, while rookie Xavier Worthy missed Week 3 with a hamstring injury and remains questionable for Sunday. Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 211 yards on 4.7 yards per carry, giving the Chiefs a balanced attack that ranks 11th in points scored (18.7 PPG) and 14th in total offense (373.7 YPG).
The offensive line has been inconsistent, allowing eight sacks through three games, and Kansas City ranks just 21st in third-down conversion rate (39.4%). Andy Reid’s play-calling has leaned conservative early in games, but the Chiefs have been strong in second halves, outscoring opponents 41–20 after halftime. They’ve committed three turnovers and rank 19th in red zone efficiency (58.3%), a surprising dip for a team known for surgical execution. Mahomes has been pressured on over 30% of dropbacks, and while he’s still elite at extending plays, the lack of separation from receivers has forced more checkdowns and stalled drives. If the Chiefs can protect Mahomes and get Kelce loose in the middle of the field, they’ll have a chance to exploit Baltimore’s bottom-ranked defense.
Defensively, Kansas City has been quietly effective. They rank 12th in total defense (297.0 YPG), 10th against the pass (183.0 YPG), and 18th against the run (114.0 YPG), allowing just 18.7 points per game — good for 11th in the league. Linebacker Nick Bolton leads the team with 26 tackles, and Mike Danna has posted three sacks off the edge. The secondary, anchored by L’Jarius Sneed and Justin Reid, has allowed four passing touchdowns and ranks middle-of-the-pack in coverage success rate. Kansas City has forced two takeaways and ranks 9th in third-down defense, showing an ability to get off the field when it matters. Against a Ravens offense that leads the league in scoring and thrives on tempo, the Chiefs will need to tackle in space, disguise coverage, and force Jackson into tight-window throws.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick
Ravens vs Chiefs Spread Pick
- Kansas City +2.5 (5 Units)
Kansas City +2.5 offers value in a matchup where Baltimore’s explosive offense masks a defense that’s been historically bad through three weeks. The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring (37.0 PPG) but rank dead last in total defense, allowing 420.3 yards per game and surrendering touchdowns on over 83% of red zone trips. Lamar Jackson has been brilliant, but he’s been under constant pressure behind a line that’s allowed 12 sacks, and Baltimore’s defense has failed to generate stops or turnovers. Kansas City, meanwhile, has quietly held opponents to just 297.0 yards and 18.7 points per game — both top-12 marks — and they’ve shown the ability to control tempo and win field position battles.
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t posted gaudy numbers, but he’s protected the ball and leaned on Travis Kelce and Skyy Moore to move the chains. The Chiefs have outscored opponents 41–20 in second halves and rank top-10 in third-down defense, which sets up well against a Ravens team that thrives on rhythm and early momentum. With Xavier Worthy potentially returning and Kansas City’s defense playing disciplined football, this feels like a spot where Mahomes can manage the game, Reid can scheme for red zone efficiency, and the Chiefs can cover — if not win outright — against a Ravens team that’s been forced to outscore its own flaws.
Ravens vs Chiefs Over/Under Pick
- Over 48.5 (4 Units)
The Over 48.5 sets up well in a matchup featuring the NFL’s highest-scoring offense and a defense that’s been unable to get stops. Baltimore leads the league at 37.0 points per game and has hit 30+ in all three contests, while their defense ranks last in total yards allowed and has surrendered 10+ touchdowns already. Kansas City, though not as explosive, still features Mahomes, Kelce, and a scheme built for second-half scoring — they’ve outscored opponents 41–20 after halftime and rank top-10 in red zone trips. With both teams capable of quick-strike drives and Baltimore’s defense bleeding yardage, this game profiles as a shootout where 50+ points is not just possible — it’s likely.
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