Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons, Picks and Predictions, Monday, October 13, 2025
Georgia plays host to the first Monday Night Football game of the evening and we’re breaking down the teams, then dropping our Bills vs. Falcons predictions to help you make the play of the day. Buffalo (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) fell for the first time this season in a 23-20 upset at home against New England last weekend. Atlanta (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) is coming off of a bye week after beating Washington, 34-27, at home two weeks ago. Kickoff from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled for 7:15 EST and be sure to check out all our award-winning NFL Predictions.
Bills caught napping
Eight-point favorites over division rival New England, the Bills got stung by a former teammate. The offense coughed up three turnovers and scored just three points in the first half. They had 363 yards and 25 first downs, while on defense, Buffalo held their opponent to 338 yards and 21 first downs, and they forced a turnover.
Despite their lowest offense output of the season, Buffalo still ranks third in the league in scoring offense, averaging 30.6 points per game. They are also third in the league with 395.8 yards and second with 154.4 rushing yards per game. James Cook was held to 49 yards last weekend but is still second in the NFL with 450 rushing yards. Josh Allen heads the passing game which averages 241.4 yards a week. The QB is ninth in the league with 1,217 passing yards, with 9 TDs and 2 INTs. He’s distributed the ball very well, having three receivers with at least 20 catches. Tight end Dalton Kincaid leads the team with 287 receiving yards and 3 TDs.
The Bills' scoring defense ranks 16th in the NFL, giving up 22.6 points per game. They’ve allowed 299.6 total yards and have the second-best passing defense in the game, allowing 154 yards per game. Against the rush, they are giving up 145.6 yards per game, the fifth-worst mark in the league. The team has 13 sacks and two interceptions. Terrel Bernard leads the team with 26 tackles and had one of the two interceptions. Cole Bishop is second on the team with 21 tackles and is one of three players with two sacks.
Injury report (with Friday's practice availability)
- T Dion Dawkins (thumb) full
- S Damar Hamlin (pectoral) DNP
- TE Dalton Kincaid (oblique) limited
- LB Matt Milano (pectoral) DNP
- DT Ed Oliver (ankle) limited
- S Tayloe Rapp (nose) full
- WR Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs) DNP
- DT T.J. Sanders (knee) DNP
- LB Dorian Williams (knee) full
Falcons get one month reset
The Falcons enjoyed their bye week after playing a month’s worth of games, which they split. Last time out, the offense was rolling, grabbing a 10-0 lead after the first quarter before keeping pace with Washington the rest of the way. They gained 435 yards in the win and had 25 first downs while the defense kept the Commanders to 194 yards and 17 first downs.
The 34 points scored last time out were their best offensive performance of the season. The Falcons’ scoring offense averages only 19 points per game, 27th in the NFL. On the flip side, they rank seventh in yardage, averaging 362.8 yards per game. They average 226.3 yards per game through the air. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 313 yards, 2 TDs, and an interception against Washington. On the year, he’s completed 62.4% of his passes for 918 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs, and he’s been sacked five times. Drake London has a team-high 24 catches for 269 yards. On the ground, Atlanta has three players with over 200 yards, and they average 136.5 yards per game, sixth in the NFL. Bijan Robinson had a team-high 314 rushing yards, as well as a team-high 270 receiving yards.
Defensively, Atlanta is giving up 21.5 points, 15th in the NFL, and 244 total yards per game, which is the best average in the league. Against the run, they are allowing 109 yards each time out and they have the best passing defense in the league, yielding only 135 yards per game. They have also been able to record 10 sacks to go with three interceptions. Jessie Bates III leads the team with 24 tackles. Xavier Watts is right behind him with 23 tackles and leads the Falcons with two interceptions and four pass deflections.
Injury report (with Friday's practice availability)
- RB Nate Carter (hamstring) full
- DT Ta’Quon Graham (calf) full
- WR KhaDarel Hodge (groin) limited
- CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) limited
- CB Natrone Brooks (concusion/shoulder) limited
- WR Darnell Mooney (hamstring) DNP
- CB Clark Phillips III (triceps/illness) DNP
- S Billy Bowman Jr. (knee) limited
- DT LaCale London (tricep) limited
- S Xavier Watts (ankle) limited
Bills vs. Falcons Picks
Spread Pick for Bills vs. Falcons
- Buffalo -4.5 (5 units)
These two last met in 2022, a game the Bills won by 14 points, as -14.5-point favorites. The Bills are going to be coming into this one with a major chip on their shoulder. They know they are a better team than New England and they should be undefeated still. However, that isn’t the case because they didn’t play a full football game. They’ll be ready to roll in this one, especially with the spotlight on them once again. Kincaid is questionable, but Allen has plenty of targets and shouldn’t be affected if his tight end is limited. I also believe that the Bills’ QB, with his ability to make things happen, is going to use his feet to switch up passing looks against a very strong passing defense. This is going to open things up for the Buffalo run game as well. Atlanta saw the momentum of their Washington win go by the wayside in their bye week, and I would expect them to be slow to the start in this one. I also like for Buffalo’s defense to stand firm after catching that loss last week. Buffalo won the last two meetings between the teams by an average of 10.5 points per game.
Take the Bills giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for Bills vs. Falcons
- Under 50 (5 units)
The combined score between these teams when they last played was 44 points against a 45.5-point total. The game features a pair of offenses at opposite ends of the scoring spectrum. The Bills scored at least 30 points a game through their first four efforts before New England halted their momentum. However, in their lone road game, they put up exactly 30, which was their lowest total before last weekend. The Falcons exploded in their last game, but against a mediocre Washington defense. Prior to that they were shut out in Carolina, so the offense can be hit-or-miss. Against a strong Buffalo defense, I’m leaning towards the latter. The under is 3-1 in the last four games between the teams and a combined 5-4 between the two teams this season.
Take the under.