Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The Buffalo Bills travel to Houston to face the Houston Texans on Sunday, September 13, in one of the most evenly priced games on the Week 1 NFL schedule. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. Buffalo enters a new era under head coach Joe Brady but still has one of the NFL's premier quarterbacks leading an offense that went 12-5 last season. Houston counters with C.J. Stroud and a roster capable of making the Texans a serious factor in the AFC. The current betting market has Buffalo favored by approximately one point with a total of 44.5, essentially treating this as a toss-up after accounting for Houston's home field. In the NFL season it is very hard to find accurate winners each week on your own, which is why you need to use our free NFL picks.

Josh Allen Keeps Buffalo Among the AFC Contenders

The centerpiece remains Josh Allen, who enters his ninth NFL season after another excellent year in 2025. Allen completed 69.4% of his passes for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 102.2 passer rating. He remained just as dangerous with his legs, rushing for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns. That combination gives Buffalo an advantage few opponents can completely neutralize.

Buffalo's offensive identity last season extended beyond Allen. The Bills finished first in the NFL with 2,714 rushing yards, averaging 159.6 per game, while their 30 rushing touchdowns also led the league. James Cook remains a major part of that equation, allowing Buffalo to attack opponents without forcing Allen to carry the entire offense through the air.

There is encouraging injury news along Buffalo's offensive line entering Week 1. Starting center Connor McGovern returned to practice as the opener approached, improving the likelihood that Buffalo can enter Houston with its preferred offensive line intact. That matters against a Texans defense capable of creating problems when quarterbacks are forced into obvious passing situations.

Buffalo's defense also deserves attention. The Bills finished first in the NFL last season in passing yards allowed at 2,668, or just 156.9 per game. That creates a fascinating matchup against a Houston offense that will want Stroud to generate explosive plays through the air.

C.J. Stroud Gives Houston a Chance to Win This Outright

C.J. Stroud remains the centerpiece of Houston's offense. In 14 games last season, Stroud completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions while posting a 92.9 passer rating. Those numbers were not as explosive as his rookie season, but his ability to protect the football and challenge defenses vertically keeps Houston dangerous.

Nico Collins remains one of the most important weapons in the Houston passing game, but the Texans enter Week 1 dealing with some questions around their receiving corps. Houston lost Jayden Higgins for the season, thinning the depth available around Stroud. That becomes more important against a Buffalo secondary coming off an outstanding 2025 season.

There is another concern along Houston's offensive line. Starting right tackle Braden Smith is expected to miss Week 1, creating a potential pressure point Buffalo can attack. Losing a starting tackle against an opponent capable of forcing quarterbacks away from their preferred reads is significant, particularly in the first regular-season game.

The matchup is still much closer than those concerns might suggest. Houston is at home, and the market has kept this game near pick'em. The Texans also defeated Buffalo last season even without Stroud available for that matchup, providing at least some evidence that Houston's roster can compete with Buffalo beyond the quarterback position.

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Picks and Prediction

Pick: Buffalo Bills -1

This is one of the smallest Week 1 spreads, and Buffalo is the preferred side at -1. Allen remains the biggest individual difference-maker in the matchup after accounting for 39 passing and rushing touchdowns last season, while Buffalo can support him with a rushing attack that led the NFL in yards and touchdowns. Houston has legitimate home-field value and enough defensive talent to keep this close, but the injury at right tackle and reduced receiving depth are meaningful against Buffalo. With the number essentially asking the Bills only to win the game, I'll back Allen and Buffalo -1.

Pick: Under 44.5

The Under 44.5 is the second play. Buffalo allowed only 156.9 passing yards per game last season, while Houston enters the opener with questions at receiver and right tackle. The Texans' defense should also prevent Buffalo from simply turning this into an offensive track meet. Buffalo has the ability to control possession through its running game rather than asking Allen to throw 40-plus times. This looks more like a physical AFC matchup decided in the low 20s than a shootout. Take Under 44.5.

Final Picks: Buffalo Bills -1 and Under 44.5