Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction and Picks – Sunday, November 9, 2025
The Miami Dolphins will host the Buffalo Bills this Sunday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Bills vs. Dolphins prediction. The Bills spent last week pulling out a cinematic late afternoon win over the Chiefs, while the Dolphins were thrashed by the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 9. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best NFL Betting Picks to help you out!
Bills vs. Dolphins Matchup
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Bills 2-0 since bye week after beating Chiefs 28-21
The Buffalo Bills are 6-2 heading into Week 10, narrowly trailing the 7-2 Patriots for the lead in the AFC East. They're 2-0 since their bye after last Sunday's 28-21 over the Chiefs.
Josh Allen was electric for the Bills, completing 23 of 26 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown while running in two more scores from a yard out of the endzone. James Cook gained 114 yards on 27 carries, while Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir hauled in a combined 13 of 14 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. The defense came up big as well–Joey Bosa logged two TFLs, a sack, and five QB hits. Cole Bishop and Maxwell Hairston both had phenomenal games in coverage, including five pass defenses between them and a fourth-quarter interception by Hairston that nearly sealed the game. When the Chiefs retook possession with 22 seconds to go and a seven-point deficit, the Bills' defense closed things out by forcing three deep passes to the endzone to fall incomplete.
Buffalo ranks first among NFL teams with 385.5 total yards per game and 161.5 rushing yards per game. They lead the league with 1,292 rushing yards despite having played only eight games–the Broncos, who played their tenth game of the season on Thursday night, rank second with 1,286. Cook (867) trails only the Colts' Jonathan Taylor (895) in rushing yards. Allen and Cook are tied for the fourth-highest mark in rushing touchdowns this season with seven each.
Dolphins fire GM, sell at trade deadline after 28-6 loss
The Miami Dolphins are 2-7 after losing 28-6 to the Ravens last Thursday night. Chris Grier was relieved of his duties as the team's general manager–a position he's held since 2016–on Friday. Jaelan Phillips was sent to Philadelphia in exchange for a third-round pick on Monday, one day before the trade deadline. Darren Waller, who ranks fifth on the team with 117 receiving yards and ties Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane for a team-high four receiving touchdowns, was put on injured reserve two weeks ago. Tyreek Hill, who was placed on injured reserve at the start of October, still ranks third on the team with 265 receiving yards. Tanner Conner, a tight end who ranks sixth on the team with 91 receiving yards, was waived on Wednesday.
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Somehow, the Dolphins have been competitive in more of their losses than not. They gave up fourth-quarter leads against the Patriots (33-27), Panthers (27-24), and Chargers (29-27) earlier this season, and they only lost 31-21 in their trip to play the Bills in Week 3. Close games are common in the NFL, and placement in the standings is often heavily influenced by how teams perform–or how lucky they get–in the closing minutes of such games.
Last week's 28-6 loss to the Ravens wasn't close. The Dolphins' offense committed three turnovers, starting with a fumble forced by recently-acquired Ravens safety Alohi Gilman within the Dolphins' own ten-yard line. Their next possession made it to 4th-and-1 on the Ravens' 12-yard line, then ended in a missed 35-yard field goal after right tackle Larry Borom committed a false start. Another first-half possession went 67 yards before ending in a turnover on downs, and Tua Tagovailoa gave himself up for a sack on the last possession of the half. The Ravens scored 14 points in the second half; the Dolphins ended their only drive to go over 20 yards with another fumble.
The Dolphins might steal a game or two down the stretch, but the team's higher management has clearly shifted focus to 2026. It'll be hard to find wins betting on their success.
Key Injuries and Analysis
Buffalo:
- Starting CB Taron Johnson (groin) is ?
- Starting DT DaQuan Jones (calf) is ?
- LB Shaq Thompson (hamstring) is out
- Starting CB Christian Benford (groin) is ?
Miami:
- RB Ollie Gordon (ankle) is ?
- Starting LB Chop Robinson (concussion) is doubtful.
- Starting S Ashtyn Davis (quad) is ?
- Starting Nickel CB Rasul Douglas (foot) is doubtful.
Bills vs. Dolphins pick
Spread Pick for Bills vs. Dolphins
- Bills (-9.5) (-110) (5 Units)
There are faults in the Bills' game, but they'll clear the Dolphins by 20 points if both teams play like they did last week. The Bills won 40-9 in a road game against the Panthers after their bye week and beat the Chiefs 28-21 last Sunday, covering the spread in both games. The Dolphins' last three games consist of their loss to the Ravens, a 31-6 loss to the moribund Browns, and a 34-10 win over a Falcons team that was missing quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and top receiver Drake London. I'd lean heavily toward Buffalo here.
Over/Under Pick for Bills vs. Dolphins
- Under 50.0 (-110) (4 Units)
In the last three weeks, neither of these teams has been part of a game to hit 50 total points. The Dolphins have been held below 10 points twice, and the Bills held the Panthers to nine points two weeks ago. If Buffalo looks nearly as good on defense against Miami as they did against Kansas City, they'll be able to cover here while leaning on their run game and keeping the point total low.
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