Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 15 2026

Buffalo heads to MetLife Stadium on Sunday for a 1 PM ET game against the Jets. The Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total is 51.5. The early forecast calls for temperatures around 49-51 degrees, winds around 10-12 mph, gusts potentially reaching the low twenties, and little chance of rain. Nothing extreme, but the wind could affect a few deep throws. Buffalo has been the best offensive team in football, while the Jets have been struggling to win games. I like the Bills, although laying more than a touchdown on the road always deserves a little thought. With the NFL season heating up you should make sure you are fully prepared with our free NFL picks.

Buffalo Has Been Scoring on Everybody

Buffalo is 7-1 after beating Minnesota 23-6 on Monday night. That’s a pretty impressive defensive performance against a team that had been playing good football. The Bills have been winning in different ways. Sometimes they score 35. Sometimes they hold somebody to six. That’s what makes them dangerous. Buffalo doesn’t need everything to go perfectly to win.

The Bills lead the league in scoring at 32 points per game and total offense at 386.4 yards. That’s a lot of production. Buffalo has also been controlling the football, averaging nearly 32 minutes of possession. The defense has been solid enough, although the pass rush hasn’t been overwhelming with 17 sacks. Against the Jets, the Bills should be able to move the ball. New York hasn’t been generating enough offense to consistently keep up.

Josh Allen has thrown for 2,027 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. James Cook has rushed for 814 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 4.8 per carry. That’s the kind of balance that makes Buffalo difficult to defend. Dalton Kincaid has added 429 receiving yards. The Bills need to keep Cook involved because the Jets have enough pass-rushing ability to make obvious passing downs uncomfortable. Buffalo doesn’t need to force anything.

The Jets Have Been Having a Rough Season

New York is 2-7 after losing 35-12 to Kansas City on Sunday. That was another ugly result for a team that hasn’t been able to put everything together. The Jets have had some competitive games, but they’ve been getting beaten too easily by good opponents. Buffalo certainly qualifies as a good opponent.

The Jets are averaging 20.2 points and 309.9 yards per game. That’s not enough offense to consistently keep up with a team scoring 32. New York has recorded 22 sacks, so the defense can create pressure. But the Jets have only one interception all season. That’s a problem. They aren’t taking the football away enough to make up for their offensive limitations.

Geno Smith has thrown for 2,078 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. That’s actually a respectable touchdown-to-interception ratio. Braelon Allen has rushed for 598 yards, while Garrett Wilson has 527 receiving yards. The Jets have some offensive talent, but they need to finish drives. Against Buffalo, settling for field goals isn’t going to be enough. New York also needs to protect Smith because falling behind early would force the Jets to throw more than they’d like.

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Buffalo Bills -8.5

I’m taking Buffalo and laying the 8.5 points. I know that’s a big number for a divisional road game. The Jets have enough pass rush to make things uncomfortable, and Buffalo could get careless after a big Monday night win. But the Bills are scoring almost 12 more points per game than New York. They also have the better running game and a much more dependable offense. I think Buffalo gets ahead and forces the Jets to chase. Give me the Bills by double digits.

Total Pick: Under 51.5

I’ll take the under 51.5. Buffalo can score 35 by itself, so there’s some danger here. But the Jets just managed 12 against Kansas City, and Buffalo held Minnesota to six. The Bills should be able to control the game with Cook and avoid taking unnecessary chances. The wind could also make the longer passing game a little more difficult. Something around 30-17 Buffalo makes sense. That’s plenty of points for the Bills, but still under the number.

Final Picks: Buffalo Bills -8.5 | Under 51.5