Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Picks - Sunday, November 16, 2025
The Atlanta Falcons are looking to make amends for a big loss in their last matchup against the Panthers as they host their NFC South rivals on Sunday in Week 11. The last time these two met, the Panthers put up a 30-0 win in Charlotte, one of six losses Atlanta has taken so far in this disappointing 2025 season. Get the inside track on this game with our Panthers vs. Falcons prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 1pm ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Falcons.
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Key Panthers vs. Falcons Matchup and Analysis
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Panthers still in playoff chase
The Carolina Panthers (5-5) are hanging on in their quest to reach the postseason for the first time in seven years. After going a woeful 5-12 in 2024 Carolina matched its wins total with a huge upset over Green Bay in Week 9, though a subsequent loss to the Saints robbed the team of a chance to put real pressure on Tampa Bay at the top of the NFC South and stay above .500. With seven games left on their schedule the Panthers trail the Bucs by 1.5 games, with a huge matchup in Charlotte looming in Week 16 that could decide the fate of the division.
Carolina will need more from Bryce Young and a spluttering pass offense to get over the hump. The third-year quarterback has broken 200 passing yards in just one of his 10 starts so far and against the Saints was held to 124 yards with an interception. He averages 5.6 yards per attempt, ranking 35th out of 36 NFL QBs in 2025. The Panthers have had more luck on the ground and rank eighth in the league with an average of 133.1 rushing yards per game. The Carolina defense has also shown a big improvement in recent weeks, holding opponents to less than 20 points in three of their last four games.
Rico Dowdle is Carolina's biggest concern ahead of the weekend. The running back was a limited participant in Thursday's practice due to a quad issue, having sat out the previous day. Dowdle leads the team with 788 rushing yards on 149 carries (78.8 ypg) and has five rushing TDs in 2025. LB Trevin Wallace (shoulder), who has 33 tackles and two sacks, is out for this game and is week-to-week.
Falcons on four-game skid
Things have gone downhill fast for the Atlanta Falcons (3-6) since an impressive win over Buffalo in Week 6. Atlanta has lost all four of its games since then and now looks set to miss the playoffs for an eighth straight year. They can claim to have been unlucky in their last two outings: a missed PAT cost the Falcons in a 24-23 loss to the Patriots, before the Colts tied with just 25 seconds left on the clock in Week 10 and went on to win 30-24 in overtime.
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Michael Penix Jr. has had a mixed sophomore year at quarterback. After splitting time with Kirk Cousins in 2024, the former Husky has started eight of Atlanta's nine games, throwing for 1807 yards, nine TDs and three INTs. Penix ranks 21st among NFL quarterbacks with 7 yards per attempt, but a lack of precision has held him back: his mark of 58% completion puts him down in 32nd out of 36 starters. His play-calling on third down also needs improvement, with the Falcons converting just 33.6% of attempts.
The Falcons' O-line looks compromised ahead of Sunday as guards Chris Lindstrom (foot) and Matthew Bergeron (ankle) did not participate in practice Wednesday or Thursday. Bergeron also sat last weekend in Germany against the Colts. Edge rusher Leonard Floyd (hamstring) also missed practice for the two days, while WR Drake London (illness, back) returned to limited participation. CB Dee Alford (23 tackles, 1 INT) is out due to a concussion. DE Zach Harrison (4.5 sacks) is questionable with a knee injury.
Panthers vs. Falcons Pick
Spread Pick for Panthers vs. Falcons
- Panthers +3.5 (five units)
The Panthers have found some form since midseason and look good value to cover against this struggling Falcons team. Penix will certainly have bad memories of his last game against Carolina, where he got shut out and picked twice while completing 50% of passing attempts. The QB will be exposed again on Sunday if Lindstrom and Bergeron cannot make it back and is coming off an erratic game against the Colts, where he made a season-low 42% of his throws. The Panthers are 3-2 ATS on the road this year and 4-1 in NFC games. The Falcons have gone 1-4 ATS playing as a favorite in 2025. Back Carolina to keep this one close or even come through to win as underdog.
Take the Panthers.
Over/Under Pick for Panthers vs. Falcons
- Under 42.5 (four units)
I can see the total staying low on Sunday. Both Young and Penix struggled in their first matchup of 2025, with the former throwing just 121 yards against the Falcons. Carolina's average of 17.7 ppg this season ranks 28th in the NFL. The Panthers are 1-3 on the over in their last four games. The doubts over Dowdle's availability will only weaken the Carolina offense, given Young's failure to get the passing game going.
Take the under.
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