Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots Prediction and Picks – Sunday, September 28
Use Code SSWC The Carolina Panthers will visit the New England Patriots for an early-afternoon Week 4 matchup, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Panthers vs. Patriots prediction. The Panthers are coming off a surprisingly impressive Week 3 win against the division rival Atlanta Falcons, while the Patriots are coming off a 21-14 loss to the Steelers. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, September 28.
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How will Panthers follow 30-0 Week 3 win?
Fans of the Carolina Panthers got their money's worth out of the team's home opener in Week 3. The offense jumped quickly, taking their first possession from where John Parker Romo missed a 49-yard field goal and ending it with Bryce Young carrying the ball over the left pylon. Young looked effective – he missed Hunter Renfrow on a couple of throws early but hit most of his open targets down the stretch. Tetairoa McMillan got plenty of chances to make plays against one-on-one coverage, finishing the game with three catches for 48 yards on eight targets.
Defensively, Carolina was helped out by some Falcons' miscues. Both of Atlanta's first two drives ended in missed field goals. They failed to score on a long drive at the end of the first half due to poor clock management, and Michael Penix made increasingly short and suspect throws throughout the game. Chau Smith-Wade jumped a late checkdown at the start of the second half, intercepting it and running untouched to the endzone to put the Panthers up 17-0. Mike Jackson intercepted another pass later in the third quarter, undercutting the pass as Ray-Ray McCloud fell behind him before returning the ball 54 yards. By their first possession of the fourth quarter, the Falcons had punted on the game and sat Penix for Kirk Cousins.
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With a head-to-head win over the Falcons, the Panthers rank second in the NFC South at 1-2. Week 4 will present them with an opportunity to win their first road game of the season.
Turnovers Haunt Pats
The New England Patriots made a few too many mistakes against the Steelers in Week 3—some of which they got away with, others of which they didn't. Their first drive exhibited both: on three consecutive plays, Drake Maye took a sack while trying to step up in the pocket, bounced a would-be interception off the hands of Steelers safety Chuck Clark, then watched Rhamondre Stevenson fumble to end the possession.
The offense finished the first quarter with 20 yards across two drives, sandwiching a Steelers drive that ended in a touchdown. The second-to-last play of that touchdown drive was a 3rd-and-1 where cornerback Alex Austin drew a pass interference flag against tight end Darnell Washington, giving the Steelers a fresh set of downs on their own one-yard line. In the second quarter, the Pats ended a 20-play drive on the Steelers' two-yard line with an interception to Brandin Echols, who Maye didn't see lurking under a corner route from Kayshon Boutte. In the third quarter, they ended two drives with a second fumble from Rhamondre Stevenson and another from Antonio Gibson. They put up a 16-play touchdown drive in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 14, before ending their subsequent drive with another fumble after Maye took a sack from Nick Herbig. Five turnovers cost the Patriots a chance of beating the Steelers.
At 1-2, the Patriots still rank second in the AFC East ahead of the winless Jets and Dolphins. They'll be looking to extend that lead with a home win on Sunday.
Panthers vs. Patriots Pick
Spread Pick for Panthers vs. Patriots
- Panthers +5.5 (-110) (4 Units)
After the show the Panthers put on against the Falcons, I'd take them to stay within a touchdown in what I'd expect to be a low-scoring game. Their offense showed the ability to avoid mistakes, move the ball, and take advantage of good field position. Their defense showed the ability to capitalize on poor play from opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots, conversely, showed an alarming ability to blunder their way out of otherwise successful offensive play. I'd expect the Patriots to trend back toward competence, but they're still a 1-2 team with a one-score win against a suspect Dolphins unit.
Over/Under Pick for Panthers vs. Patriots
- Under 43.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 2-1 through each of these teams' games this season. New England isn't likely to suffer four drive-ending fumbles to take points off the board a second time, but their slow-paced offense – Antonio Gibson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Rhamondre Stevenson combined for 74 yards on 22 carries –wasn't a fluke. The Panthers scored 30 points against the Falcons, but they got one touchdown directly from their defense and another set up easily from a 54-yard interception return. I'd expect their point total to trend down.
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