Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions for Sunday, October 18, 2026
The Chicago Bears (3-2) visit the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX. Chicago is tied for second in the NFC North after losing 31-7 to Green Bay, while Atlanta sits second in the NFC South following a 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore. The Bears are 3-point favorites, with the spread unchanged from the opening line. The total has increased from 47.5 to 48.5 points. For more football betting predictions, check out our free NFL picks.
Chicago Bears Look to Rebound After Green Bay Loss
Chicago had its two-game winning streak snapped by Green Bay after defeating Philadelphia 27-7 and the New York Jets 23-12. The Bears average 23.8 points and 392.4 total yards per game. Tyson Bagent has thrown for 409 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions, completing 65.6% of his passes. Case Keenum has added 355 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Caleb Williams has thrown for 407 yards and two scores, but is inactive. Chicago has recorded five interceptions across its three quarterbacks.
D'Andre Swift has rushed for 354 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Kyle Monangai has added 324 rushing yards and three touchdowns, helping Chicago average 173.2 rushing yards per game. Rome Odunze leads the receivers with 273 yards, followed by Luther Burden III with 266. Defensively, the Bears allow 19.2 points and 311.4 yards per game. Dillon Thieneman leads with 37 tackles, while Austin Booker has recorded four sacks. Chicago has registered 12 sacks and three interceptions this season.
Injuries: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, out, undisclosed); Caleb Williams (QB, inactive, hamstring); Dayo Odeyingbo (DE, questionable, quadriceps); Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB, questionable, hamstring); T.J. Edwards (LB, questionable, hamstring).
Atlanta Falcons Rely on Their Ground Game
Atlanta enters Sunday after losing 30-23 in overtime against Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak. The Falcons previously defeated Green Bay 35-14 and New Orleans 45-24. Atlanta averages 23.8 points and 361.8 total yards per game. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 719 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, completing 67.5% of his passes. Cooper Rush has added 229 passing yards but has thrown four interceptions. Atlanta has seven interceptions as a team through five games.
Bijan Robinson has rushed for 580 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Brian Robinson Jr. has contributed 210 yards rushing and four touchdowns, helping Atlanta average 166.8 rushing yards per game. Drake London leads the receiving group with 488 yards, averaging 18.1 yards per reception. Defensively, Atlanta allows 24.4 points and 328.6 yards per game. Xavier Watts leads with 34 tackles and one interception, while Za'Darius Smith and Samson Ebukam have recorded 2.5 sacks each. The Falcons have registered 11 sacks this season.
Injuries: Michael Penix Jr. (QB, questionable, ribs); C.J. Henderson (CB, questionable, groin); Cooper Rush (QB, inactive, coach's decision); Ethan Onianwa (OT, inactive, coach's decision); Jack Strand (QB, inactive, coach's decision).
Key to the Game
Both teams rely heavily on their rushing attacks, with Chicago averaging 173.2 rushing yards and Atlanta producing 166.8 per game. Robinson has rushed for 580 yards, while Swift and Monangai have combined for 678 yards. Chicago's defense allows 96 rushing yards per game, giving the Bears an advantage against Atlanta's strongest offensive weapon. The Falcons allow 80.2 rushing yards per game, making this a challenging matchup for Chicago's running backs. Quarterback production and turnovers will be important, with both teams recording inconsistent passing performances.
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Game Pick
- Chicago -3 (-120)
Chicago enters Sunday with three victories in five games and a defense allowing just 19.2 points per contest. The Bears have held three opponents to 12 points or fewer, including Philadelphia and the Jets. Atlanta relies heavily on Robinson, but Chicago allows only 96 rushing yards per game. The Falcons have also thrown seven interceptions, creating opportunities for Chicago's defense. Swift and Monangai provide a strong rushing combination, while Atlanta has struggled at home with two losses. The Bears will win by more than three points and cover.
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Over/Under Pick
- Under 48.5 (-108)
Chicago allows just 19.2 points per game and has held three opponents to 12 points or fewer. Atlanta averages 23.8 points, but its offense has struggled with turnovers, throwing seven interceptions through five games. Both teams rely on their rushing attacks, with Chicago averaging 173.2 rushing yards and Atlanta producing 166.8 per contest. The Bears also allow only 96 rushing yards per game, limiting Robinson's opportunities for big gains. Strong defensive play and extended rushing drives keep the combined score below 48.5 points on Sunday.