Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Prediction for Sunday October 11 2026

Historic Lambeau Field will play host to a NFC North Division clash between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. The game is scheduled for Sunday October 11, 2026 at 1:00 pm EST. Fox will broadcast this intriguing week five matchup, which could go a long way in determining the division winner. Chicago is a small 1.5 road favorite and the total is currently 45.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.

Chicago Ascending into the NFL Elite

The Chicago Bears made it to the divisional round of the playoffs a season ago and could be in store for bigger things with second year head coach Ben Johnson at the helm. The Bears (3-1) erupted for 59 points in a season opening win at Carolina and trail Minnesota by one full game for first place. On Sunday, Chicago racked up 34 first downs during a dominant 23-12 home victory. 

Chicago jumped out to a lead after one quarter on Kyle Monangai’s one-yard touchdown plunge. Monangai finished with 146 rushing yards and put the game away with a second-half touchdown. Rome Odunze contributed 94 receiving yards for the Bears, who limited the Jets to 157 total yards. 

Chicago finished sixth in total offense last year and is currently the top offense in the NFL. The Bears are averaging 28 points per game, but could improve in the red zone where they have scored touchdowns on just 42 percent of their opportunities. Chicago is much improved on defense and is allowing just 16.3 points per contest.

Green Bay No Longer a Dominant Force 

The Green Bay Packers have been the class of the NFC North Division over the last couple of decades, but things appear to be changing. The Packers (2-2) are lucky to have split their four games and have a negative 32 scoring margin. Last week, Green Bay took advantage of a Tampa Bay squad starting an undrafted rookie quarterback to escape with a 17-14 road victory. 

Green Bay started the scoring with a two-yard touchdown pass from Jordan Love to Matthew Golden. Trey Smack nailed a 58-yard field goal as time expired in the first half. TE Tucker Kraft caught a two-yard touchdown pass for the Packers, who converted just 2-of-10 third down attempts.

The Packers are a middle of the pack offensive unit and are scoring a measly 18.3 points per game. Green Bay has issues on the offensive line and are averaging an NFL worst 58 yards on the ground. The Packers are not much better on the defensive side of the ball, where they are giving up 26.3 points per contest.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Bears -1.5

Chicago QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’s practice and is listed as questionable for this game. The Bears are a well-oiled machine and they have won games with three different starting quarterbacks already this season. The Packers lack a consistent pash rush and the Bears will make a statement with a road victory.

Pick: Over 45.5

The forecast for Green Bay on Sunday is 73 degrees with a 12 mph wind. The Bears can create explosive plays on the ground and through the air. Chicago will score in the high 20s or low 30s, which will make Green Bay throw a bunch. The Packers have enough weapons on offense to put 17 plus points on the scoreboard at home. Take the over.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Bears 31, Green Bay Packers 20