Chiefs vs. Cowboys, Preview, Odds, Prediction and Picks, Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025
Use Code SSWC Two teams looking to make a late push towards the postseason meet up on Thanksgiving and we have all the fixing to fill you up, including our Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions. Kansas City (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) won at home against Indianapolis on Sunday, 23-20, as -3.5 favorites. Dallas (5-5-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) came from behind to beat Philadelphia, 24-21, as +3 underdogs at home. Kickoff from AT&T Stadium is scheduled for 4:30 EST and feast on all of the day’s action with our award-winning NFL Predictions.
Chiefs creeping up
The Chiefs were able to halt a two-game losing streak with Sunday’s win over Indianapolis and they’ve now gone 4-2 SU over their last six games. The defending AFC Champs have their work cut out of them as they sit 10th in the conference playoff standings.
Patrick Mahomes threw for a season-high 352 yards in the win over Indy, though he had no touchdown strikes and was intercepted once. On the year, he’s thrown for 2,977 yards, second most in the NFL, with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. He leads an offense that averages 376 total yards, fourth in the league, and 25.2 points per game, ninth in the NFL. The Chiefs average 257.7 passing yards and 118.3 rushing yards each game. Travis Kelce leads the team with 54 catches on 72 targets, with 674 yards and 4 TDs. The run game has been led by Kareem Hunt who has rumbled for 457 yards and 7 TDs on 116 carries.
On defense, Kansas City has allowed 18.3 points per game, the fourth best mark in the NFL. Their total defense has yielded 293 yards per games, sixth overall, with opponents averaging just 195.4 passing yards and 97.6 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs have 22 sacks and 6 interceptions on the year. Nick Bolton leads the team and is tied for 14th in the league with 89 tackles, with 3 pass deflections. George Karlaftis leads the team with 5 sacks.
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Injury report for Chiefs
- TE Noah Gray (concussion) is questionable
- G Trey Smith (ankle) is doubtful.
- CB Chris Roland-Wallace is questionable.
Defense stepping up for Cowboys
The Cowboys have won back-to-back games for the first time this season and are back at .500 following their big win over Philly. Like the Chiefs, Dallas currently sits 10th in the NFC playoff picture with six games to play.
Dak Prescott paced a 17-0 second half against the Eagles by throwing for a season-high 354 yards in the win, with 2 TDs. The Dallas QB is third in the league with 2,941 yards and tied for second with 23 TDs, with 7 interceptions. George Pickens is second in the league with 1,054 receiving yards and has 8 TDs on 67 catches. The offense as a whole is averaging 29.1 points, fourth overall, and 387.3 total yards per game, tops in the NFL. They have the top passing attack, averaging 266.8 yards per game, while also averaging 120.5 on the ground. Javonte Williams sits fifth in the NFL with 896 rushing yards, and he’s found the end zone 8 times.
Dallas has the 31st-ranked scoring defense in the game, allowing 28.5 points per game. The 377.5 total yards allowed are the fourth most in the league. The Cowboys are yielding 252.3 passing yards and 125.2 rushing yards per game. The team has 25 sacks and 5 interceptions coming into this game. Kenneth Murray Jr. leads the team with 68 tackles and has a sack, 4 tackles for loss and 2 passes defensed. James Houston has a team-high 4.5 sacks with 5 tackles for loss.
Injury report for Cowboys
- DT Osa Odighizuma (elbow) DNP is questionable.
- WR George Pickens (knee/calf) is questionable
- DE Jadeveon Clowney (neck) limited is questionable.
- DE Dante Fowler (shoulder) limited is questionable
- S Malik Hooker (toe/thigh) limited is questionable
- S Donovan Wilson (neck) limited is questionable.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Picks
Spread Pick for Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Dallas +3 (5 units)
These two teams last met in 2021, a game the Chiefs won by 10 as -2.5 favorites at home. The Cowboys are 34-22-1 SU on Thanksgiving, winning in their last three efforts. The Chiefs are 5-5 SU when playing on the holiday, with their last game coming in 2006 versus Denver. The Dallas defense has been a floodgate at points this season, but they’ve closed the doors a bit over the past two weeks, allowing an average of just 18.5 points. The Chiefs offense hasn’t been rolling by any means of late as they averaged just 21 points in their last three games. Even with Mahomes going off, they still scored only 23 points. The Cowboys have an offense that can go toe-to-toe with them and that’s what I expect to happen. Dallas is 2-1 ATS in their last three games against Kansas City. Take the Cowboys, getting the points at home.
Over/Under Pick for Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Over 51.5 (5 units)
This matchup features a pair of Top 9 scoring offenses with the brightest spotlight on them. Two of the top three quarterbacks in the game are going toe-to-toe and both are coming off season-high efforts. We should expect nothing less than a shootout in this matchup. Neither side does a whole lot to get into the opposition’s backfield and interceptions have been minimal for both defenses, so Mahomes and Prescott should have plenty of time to do work. The Cowboys get offensive on Thanksgiving, scoring at least 27 points in the last four annual home showcases.
Take the over.
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