Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears Prediction and Picks for Sunday, September 21st, 2025
A pair of playoff hopefuls square off in the Windy City on Sunday afternoon, as the Chicago Bears (0-2) gear up to host the Dallas Cowboys (1-1). We’ve got you covered with our Cowboys vs. Bears prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NFL Betting Picks!
Cowboys Bounce Back, Beat Giants
The masses were ready to discard the Dallas Cowboys before the season even started when they shipped superstar LB Micah Parsons to the Packers. I’m with them, but with Dallas’ high-octane offense, they should still manage to be an average team this season. Coach Brian Schottenheimer, who’s in his first year at the helm, has the Cowboys off to a 1-1 start. They dropped the opener on the road to the Eagles (24-20), but bounced back with a barnburning 40-37 victory over the Giants in week 2. Dallas is 1-1 ATS, and they’ve gone 1-1 to the over in 2025.
In terms of offensive personnel, it’s a star-studded group led by QB Dak Prescott. The signal caller has already thrown for 549 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT ratio this season. His top target is none other than CeeDee Lamb, who has 222 yards on 16 catches. Newcomer George Pickens has eight catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. Javonte Williams has spearheaded the rushing attack, gaining 151 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries (4.6 YPC). Dallas’ offensive line is currently ranked the worst in the NFL in pass blocking, per the Pro Football Focus grading system.
- Dallas’ offense has been solid this season, ranking fifth in scoring (30.0 PPG) and putting up 392.5 yards per game (third).
- On the defensive side, the Cowboys are 27th this season, allowing 30.5 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 30th, conceding 404.0 yards per contest.
- Injury Report: As of Thursday’s report, only CB DaRon Bland (foot) wasn’t a participant at practice. CB Trevon Diggs (illness), T Tyler Guyton (shoulder), and WR KaVontae Turpin (neck) were all full participants.
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Bears Drop to 0-2
Meanwhile, the expectations were high for the Chicago Bears entering the season, as they brought in offensive guru Ben Johnson to try and refine a team that has a core of players with major upside. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone well for Chicago, as they’re 0-2 out of the gate with losses to Minnesota (27-24) and Detroit (52-21). The Bears are 0-2 ATS and they’ve gone 2-0 to the over. Chicago is now priced at +600 just to make the postseason.
It’s second-year quarterback Caleb Williams running the offense this season. He has thrown for 417 yards on a 61.5% completion rate, while adding three touchdowns and one interception. Williams’ top target thus far is WR Rome Odunze, who has 165 yards and three touchdowns on 13 receptions. RB D’Andre Swift (116 yards, 1 TD, 4.0 YPC) is the leading rusher, while Williams has also logged 85 yards and a touchdown on 11 totes (7.7 YPC).
- Offensively, the Bears are averaging 22.5 points per game (15th) this season, while gaining 328.0 yards per contest (15th).
- On the defensive side, Chicago is 32nd in points allowed per game (39.5) and they’re surrendering 382.5 yards per week (28th).
- Injury Report: Chicago has a laundry list of DNPs from Thursday, including LB D’Marco Jackson (hamstring), OL Kiran Amegadjie (elbow), DB Jaylon Johnson (groin), DB Jaylon Jones (hamstring), DB Kyler Gordon (hamstring), and LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring).
Cowboys vs. Bears Pick
Spread Pick for Cowboys vs. Bears
- Dallas Cowboys -1.0 (-110) (5 units)
This line originally opened up at Chicago -1.5, and it quickly flipped midweek to have Dallas favored by a point. I agree with the market movement, and as long as we can land the Cowboys inside of field goal favorites, then I’m going to back them.
Both of these defenses are horrible, so I do expect the offenses to score at will. However, sometimes the handicap is as simple as saying, “Who do you trust more: Dak Prescott or Caleb Williams?” For me, I trust this veteran offensive group of the Cowboys more than the Bears' inexperienced skilled group. There’s no denying that Chicago has some young talent; it’s just that they haven’t been able to mesh well under Ben Johnson yet. The Prescott-CeeDee Lamb-George Pickens trio should flourish against Chicago’s banged-up secondary and outpace the Bears.
Over/Under Pick for Cowboys vs. Bears
- Over 50.0 (-110) (5 units)
Chicago’s defense has been gashed this season. A major part of that is due to injuries to key defensive backs Jaylon Johnson (groin) and Kyler Gordon (hamstring). Now this banged-up Bears defense, which is dead last in points allowed per game (39.5) and 28th in yards conceded per contest (382.5), will try to stop a Cowboys offense that’s scoring 30.0 points per game (fifth).
On the other hand, the Cowboys just got lit up by an aging Russel Wilson for 37 points last weekend. They’re allowing more than 400 yards per game defensively. The Bears are averaging 22.5 points per game this season, and if they come anywhere close to that, then we should sail over this total. With two of the worst defenses in the league and a couple of great offensive minds attacking them, this seems like a no-brainer to lock in the over.
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