Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 8 2026

Dallas heads to Indianapolis on Sunday for a 1 PM ET game against the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. FOX has the broadcast, and the Cowboys are favored by 5.5 points, with the total at 51.5. That’s a pretty high total for a matchup involving a Colts team that just scored seven points. Then again, Dallas just gave up 33 to Arizona, so maybe the sportsbooks know something about these defenses. Both teams are coming off losses, and somebody needs to figure out how to stop the other team from moving the football. Check out our free NFL picks for more predictions.

Dallas Cowboys Have Been Scoring but Giving Up Too Much

Dallas is 3-5 after losing 33-30 to Arizona in overtime on Sunday. That’s a frustrating way to lose, especially when you’ve scored 30 points at home. The Cowboys had beaten Philadelphia 38-21 the previous week, so the offense has been doing its job lately. Sixty-eight points in two games should be enough to win both. Instead, Dallas split them.

The problem is the defense. You can’t keep giving up big plays and expecting the offense to bail you out. Arizona moved the ball well enough to score 33, and now Dallas is heading into another road game. Indianapolis hasn’t been particularly dangerous offensively, but the Cowboys have made life easier for opponents who probably shouldn’t be scoring as much as they are.

Still, I like Dallas’ chances of moving the football Sunday. The Cowboys have scored at least 30 points in consecutive games, and Indianapolis just got embarrassed by Jacksonville. If Dallas gets into a rhythm early, the Colts could have a difficult time keeping up. That’s especially true if Indianapolis has to abandon its running game and start chasing points.

Indianapolis Colts Need to Forget About Jacksonville

Indianapolis is 2-6 after losing 42-7 to Jacksonville last Sunday. That’s the kind of game where you probably don’t want to watch the film more than once. The Colts also lost 16-10 to Minnesota the previous week, so they’ve scored just 17 points over their last two games. That’s not going to get it done against many NFL teams.

The defense has been a major concern, too. Giving up 42 points to Jacksonville is bad enough, but now Indianapolis has to face a Dallas offense that’s been putting up some pretty good numbers. The Colts need to make the Cowboys work for their points instead of giving away easy scoring opportunities. If Dallas starts hitting big plays, this could get ugly.

Here’s the one thing that gives Indianapolis a chance. Dallas has been allowing plenty of points itself. The Colts don’t need to be perfect to find some success against that defense. If Indianapolis can run the football, keep the game close, and avoid turnovers, it might be able to hang around. But after scoring seven against Jacksonville, I’m not ready to trust the Colts to do enough offensively.

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5.5

I’m laying the 5.5 with Dallas. I don’t love backing a 3-5 team on the road, but Indianapolis has been even worse. The Colts just lost by 35 points and have scored only 17 over their last two games. Dallas, meanwhile, has scored 68 in its last two. That’s a pretty significant difference. The Cowboys’ defense worries me, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Indianapolis finds some success against it. But I think Dallas has enough offense to pull away. Give me the Cowboys by a touchdown or more.

Total Pick: Over 51.5

I’ll take the over 51.5, but this one comes with some risk. Dallas has been involved in some high-scoring games lately, and its defense just gave up 33 to Arizona. The Cowboys can probably get into the 30s against Indianapolis, which gives us a good start. The question is whether the Colts can contribute enough. Scoring seven against Jacksonville doesn’t inspire confidence, but Dallas has been allowing opponents to move the football. If Indianapolis gets into the low 20s, I think we have a good chance. Something like 34-21 would get us there.

Final Picks: Dallas Cowboys -5.5 | Over 51.5