Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The Dallas Cowboys travel to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, to face the New York Giants on Sunday, September 13, in the first Sunday Night Football game of the 2026 season. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET with NBC carrying the national broadcast and Peacock providing the stream. Dallas finished 7-9-1 last season despite possessing one of the NFL's most productive passing attacks, while New York finished 4-13 and enters a new era under head coach John Harbaugh. The current market has the Cowboys favored by 2.5 points with a total of 48.5. Get ready for the NFL season with our free NFL picks.

Dak Prescott Gives Dallas the Proven Quarterback Advantage

Dak Prescott remains the foundation of the Dallas offense and enters 2026 after another productive season. The Cowboys threw for 4,527 yards and scored 471 points last year despite finishing below .500, illustrating just how productive the offense could be when things were functioning properly. Prescott also finished sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring, with several of his biggest performances coming when Dallas was able to protect him and attack aggressively through the air.

Dallas still surrounds Prescott with considerable receiving talent. CeeDee Lamb returns as the centerpiece of the passing game, while George Pickens gives the Cowboys another major downfield threat. Pickens and Lamb force defenses into difficult coverage decisions because concentrating additional help on one side can create favorable one-on-one opportunities on the other.

The Cowboys made additional changes during the offseason designed to compete immediately rather than begin a rebuild. Veteran Von Miller is preparing to make his Dallas debut, while Quinnen Williams remains a major part of a defensive front that needs to improve substantially from last season. Dallas also added Caleb Downs to a defense that badly needed another playmaker.

That defense is the biggest reason to hesitate before making Dallas a major Week 1 play. The Cowboys surrendered 511 points in 2025, more than any team playing during the opening weekend, while opposing quarterbacks generated a 109.6 passer rating. Dallas intercepted only six passes. Those numbers put enormous pressure on the revamped defense to show immediate improvement.

Jaxson Dart Gets His First Opening Day Start

Jaxson Dart is unquestionably New York's starting quarterback entering his second NFL season. Dart completed 216 of 339 passes for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions as a rookie, producing a 91.7 passer rating. Those are respectable numbers for a young quarterback playing on a four-win team, but his rushing production is what makes him particularly interesting against Dallas.

Dart rushed 86 times for 487 yards and nine touchdowns last season, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. That gave him 24 combined passing and rushing touchdowns. His mobility should be a major part of New York's game plan against a Dallas defense that struggled badly in 2025. The Giants can create additional stress by moving Dart outside the pocket and forcing Dallas to account for him as both a passer and runner.

The Giants have also changed considerably around their young quarterback. Cam Skattebo is currently listed as the starting running back after rushing for 410 yards and five touchdowns on 101 attempts last season. Isaiah Likely sits atop the tight end depth chart, while the receiving group includes Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton, Darnell Mooney and the returning Odell Beckham Jr.

Nabers is the important name to monitor before kickoff. He remains atop New York's depth chart but has not committed to playing Week 1 as he completes his recovery from the ACL injury that ended his 2025 season after four games. Nabers caught 18 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns before the injury. If he plays and can handle something close to his normal workload, New York's offensive ceiling increases considerably.

Giants Defense Could Make Life Difficult for Prescott

New York has legitimate defensive talent, which is one reason I'm reluctant to simply assume Dallas' passing numbers from last season carry directly into this game. Brian Burns recorded 16.5 sacks in 2025 and remains atop the Giants' depth chart at the rush position. Abdul Carter is another dangerous edge player, while New York added veteran Tremaine Edmunds at middle linebacker.

The secondary has also been reworked. Paulson Adebo and Greg Newsome II are currently listed as the starting cornerbacks, with Jevón Holland and Tyler Nubin at safety. The Giants surrendered 3,908 passing yards last season, so there is clearly room for improvement, but the personnel gives new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson some interesting pieces with which to challenge Prescott.

Dart has also spoken positively about facing this defense throughout camp, describing the daily work against New York's defensive personnel as valuable preparation for Week 1. The Giants limited Minnesota to 13 points in their preseason opener, Miami to three in a 26-3 victory and the Jets to six in a 23-6 win. Preseason results need to be treated cautiously, but allowing only 22 points across three games is at least an encouraging start for the new coaching staff.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Picks and Prediction

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -2.5

This is close, but Dallas -2.5 is my preferred side because we're laying less than a field goal with the more proven quarterback. Prescott directs an offense that threw for 4,527 yards and scored 471 points last season, while Lamb and Pickens give him two established weapons capable of exploiting New York's secondary. Dart is dangerous enough with his legs to keep the Giants competitive, and the possibility of Nabers returning makes New York even more interesting, but the Giants are beginning their first regular-season game under Harbaugh and still have to demonstrate that their offseason changes translate immediately. Dallas' defense is the concern, so I would not want the Cowboys if this moves beyond -3. At -2.5, take Dallas to win and cover a competitive Sunday night matchup.

Pick: Over 48.5

The Over 48.5 is my second play. Dallas scored 471 points last season but surrendered 511, which is exactly the type of profile that can produce high-scoring games. Prescott has Lamb and Pickens, while Dart's dual-threat ability creates an interesting matchup against a Cowboys defense that allowed opposing quarterbacks to produce a 109.6 passer rating last season. Nabers' availability matters, but New York still has Skattebo, Slayton, Mooney, Beckham and Likely available around Dart. A game reaching something around 27-24 or 30-24 is realistic. Take Over 48.5.

Final Picks: Dallas Cowboys -2.5 and Over 48.5