Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Prediction and Picks - December 25, 2025
The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) head to Northwest Stadium this Christmas afternoon to face the Washington Commanders (4-11) in a classic NFC East rivalry. While neither team will be participating in the postseason this year, there is plenty of pride on the line for this holiday broadcast on Netflix. Dallas is looking to break a three-game losing streak that has derailed their late-season momentum, while Washington is simply trying to find a spark in front of their home crowd to end a disappointing campaign on a high note.
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Dallas Cowboys Seeking Road Redemption
The Cowboys enter this matchup following a 34-17 loss to the Chargers, marking their third consecutive defeat. Statistically, the Cowboys have been one of the more explosive offenses in the league, led by Dak Prescott, who has put up 4,175 yards and 28 touchdowns. The emergence of George Pickens (1,342 yards) has given Dallas a true vertical threat, but the team has struggled to translate those yards into wins away from home, posting a meager 2-5 road record.
Defensively, Dallas has hit a wall. They've allowed an average of 37 points per game over their last three contests. They are also dealing with key injuries in the trenches, with Quinnen Williams and Tyler Booker listed as questionable. For Dallas to secure a win on Christmas, they’ll need their defense to step up against a Washington offense that will be without its starting quarterback.
Washington Commanders Dealing with Key Absences
It has been a rough stretch for the Commanders, who have lost four of their last five games. The injury report is the biggest story for Washington heading into Thursday. Starting QB Marcus Mariota has been ruled out with a hand injury, and the offensive line takes a massive hit with Laremy Tunsil sidelined. Defensively, the absence of Daron Payne in the middle of the line will make it difficult to contain Cowboys' RB Javonte Williams.
Despite the 4-11 record, veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner continues to be a tackling machine, racking up 147 stops this season. Washington’s path to an upset rests on their ability to shorten the game and force Prescott into mistakes, but with a 2-5 home record and a depleted roster, the uphill climb looks steep for the Burgundy and Gold.
Expert Picks and Predictions
ATS Pick For Cowboys vs Commanders
Dallas Cowboys -8.5
When I look at this matchup, the injury situation for Washington is simply too much to ignore. The Commanders are missing their starting quarterback, their best offensive lineman, and their most impactful interior defender. While the Cowboys have been struggling lately, they still have their primary weapons healthy. I expect Dak Prescott and George Pickens to exploit a Washington secondary that won't get much help from a depleted pass rush. I'm laying the points with the Cowboys to win comfortably in a "get-right" game.
Spread Pick for Commanders vs Cowboys
Over 50.5
I am leaning toward the Over in this Christmas Day clash. Dallas has seen the Over hit in four of their last five games, largely because their defense has been unable to stop anyone, surrendered 30+ points in three straight. Even with a backup quarterback, Washington should be able to find some success against a Dallas unit that is reeling. On the other side, the Cowboys' offense should have no trouble scoring against a Commanders defense missing Daron Payne. I'm predicting a high-scoring affair that clears the 50.5-point total.
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