Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Line Movement for Christmas Day
Denver vs Kansas City picks close out Christmas night in Week 17, and this AFC West rivalry carries a very different look than bettors are used to seeing at Arrowhead Stadium. With Denver firmly in control of its playoff destiny and Kansas City dealing with major quarterback issues, this matchup stands out on the board for anyone digging into the latest NFL picks.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Broncos -13.5
- Total: Under 36.5
- Projected Final Score: Broncos 24, Chiefs 10
Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Denver vs Kansas City
- Denver has drawn over 90 percent of spread tickets throughout the week.
- The Broncos have consistently been bet up from earlier single-digit spreads.
- Kansas City games have trended toward the under with totals sitting in the mid-30s.
- Public betting is heavily aligned with Denver on both spread and moneyline.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Denver | -13.5 | 36.5 |
| Kansas City | +13.5 | 36.5 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Denver | Kansas City | Public |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/23 | -12.5 | +12.5 | DEN 90% |
| 12/22 | -13 | +13 | DEN 95% |
| 12/21 | -10.5 | +10.5 | DEN 90% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/23 | 36.5 | 36.5 | Under 72% |
| 12/22 | 37 | 37 | Under 76% |
Team vs Team Game Preview and Analysis: Denver vs Kansas City
This Christmas night matchup is defined by quarterback availability and offensive ceiling. Denver enters as one of the league’s most complete teams, while Kansas City is operating with severe limitations under center. With Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both sidelined due to knee injuries, Chris Oladokun is expected to start for the Chiefs, which dramatically alters how Kansas City can approach this game.
Denver does not need to push tempo or chase explosive plays to win. The Broncos can lean on efficiency, field position, and defense to slowly separate, especially if Kansas City struggles to sustain drives. Weather is not expected to be a major factor at Arrowhead, removing one of the usual volatility angles that can keep heavy favorites in check.
Injury depth also favors Denver. Kansas City is dealing with multiple defensive back and wide receiver absences, further shrinking the margin for error. If the Chiefs cannot generate offense or flip the field with special teams, this game sets up as a controlled road win for Denver.
Key Injuries and Notes (DEN vs KC)
- Kansas City is without Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew at quarterback.
- Denver has several interior and second-level defenders listed as questionable.
- Kansas City is thin at cornerback and wide receiver entering this matchup.
Final Score Prediction
Broncos 24, Chiefs 10
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: Broncos -13.5
- Over Under: Under 36.5