Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Prediction for Friday August 14 2026
The Denver Broncos visit the Atlanta Falcons for an NFL preseason matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on Friday, August 14, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, with 9NEWS carrying the game in Denver and NFL+ providing out-of-market streaming. Atlanta is a 5.5-point favorite, Denver is available at +5.5, and the total is set at 38.5. The Broncos are priced around +195 on the moneyline. Football bettors can find more analysis throughout the season by visiting our free NFL picks.
Preseason handicapping is driven primarily by coaching intentions, quarterback rotations, and the quality of each team’s reserves. Denver enters its fourth season under Sean Payton with considerable continuity throughout the organization. Atlanta is preparing for its first game under Kevin Stefanski and must evaluate a quarterback room affected by injuries during training camp.
Denver Offers Continuity and Experienced Quarterback Depth
Bo Nix remains firmly established as Denver’s starting quarterback after helping the Broncos reach the playoffs in each of his first two seasons. Nix has recovered from the fractured ankle he suffered during Denver’s postseason run, but Payton has not confirmed how much he will play in the preseason opener. Protecting Nix could take priority over giving him an extended series of live repetitions.
Payton has previously been willing to use important offensive players during the preseason. However, Denver’s established starters have less to prove than they did earlier in his tenure. Nix may receive a short appearance, but the majority of the quarterback work should belong to Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger.
Stidham has spent several seasons in Payton’s system and remains one of the more experienced reserve quarterbacks appearing during the opening week of the preseason. He understands the terminology, protections, and timing of Denver’s passing game. That familiarity should allow the Broncos to maintain offensive structure once Nix and the first-team players leave the field.
Ehlinger supplies additional NFL experience and a useful running dimension. His mobility can protect a preseason offense when reserve linemen miss assignments or receivers fail to create immediate separation. Denver does not need to redesign its offense completely when Ehlinger enters, as designed quarterback runs and movement passes can help him create manageable situations.
The Broncos should also use the game to evaluate their crowded backfield. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey occupy the leading positions, while rookie Jonah Coleman has generated positive attention during training camp. Payton’s commitment to the running game should keep the clock moving and reduce the pressure placed on Denver’s reserve quarterbacks.
Atlanta Opens the Kevin Stefanski Era
Kevin Stefanski will coach his first game with Atlanta after being hired during the offseason. The Falcons retained defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich but introduced a new offensive structure under coordinator Tommy Rees. That transition gives the coaching staff numerous personnel and schematic questions to address during the preseason.
Atlanta’s quarterback situation is the most important handicapping factor. Tua Tagovailoa has been dealing with an injury during training camp, while Michael Penix Jr. has continued working his way back from knee surgery. Penix has participated in portions of practice but was initially restricted from full 11-on-11 work. Those circumstances could lead Stefanski to protect both quarterbacks Friday.
The Falcons signed Cooper Rush to provide veteran insurance while Tagovailoa and Penix recovered. Rush has extensive experience as a reserve quarterback and has started regular-season games, but he joined the team during training camp and has had limited time to learn the new offense. His ability to operate a simplified game plan should still give Atlanta stability against Denver’s second-team defense.
Rookie Jack Strand is the developmental quarterback behind Rush. Strand should receive meaningful preseason repetitions, particularly if Atlanta limits or rests Tagovailoa and Penix. His performance during the second half could determine whether the Falcons cover a relatively substantial spread.
Atlanta also has little reason to place a heavy workload on its most important offensive players. Bijan Robinson recently completed a major contract extension, while Drake London and Kyle Pitts are established starters. The Falcons should use the game to evaluate Brian Robinson Jr., Tyler Goodson, and the reserve skill-position players instead of exposing their offensive core to unnecessary contact.
The Falcons’ reserve defense will be particularly important following the season-ending knee injury suffered by Jalon Walker. Atlanta must identify additional edge-rushing depth, and those roster competitions should create urgency. However, playing aggressively can also produce missed assignments and penalties when defenders are adjusting to preseason combinations.
Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Prediction
- Pick: Denver Broncos +5.5
Denver is the preferred side at the available spread. Receiving more than a field goal is valuable in any preseason matchup, particularly when the favorite has uncertainty surrounding its top two quarterbacks. Atlanta could be forced to give most of the game’s repetitions to Rush and Strand.
Rush is capable of managing the offense, but he has only had a short period to learn Atlanta’s terminology. Strand could encounter a considerably more difficult assignment during the second half against Denver’s reserve defense. The rookie must adjust to NFL speed while operating behind an offensive line composed largely of players competing for roster positions.
Denver counters with Stidham and Ehlinger, two quarterbacks possessing meaningful NFL experience. Stidham’s familiarity with Payton’s system should make him one of the more dependable reserve passers in this matchup, while Ehlinger can extend possessions with his mobility. The Broncos should have a capable quarterback on the field throughout the game.
Atlanta may still win its first game under Stefanski, but laying 5.5 points requires the Falcons to create meaningful separation. Denver’s coaching continuity, quarterback experience, and ability to establish the running game should keep the Broncos competitive into the fourth quarter.
- Pick: Under 38.5
The under is the preferred total. Atlanta’s quarterback injuries could prevent Tagovailoa and Penix from making significant appearances. Even if one of them plays, Stefanski has little incentive to expose an important quarterback to more than a brief series in the first exhibition game.
Rush is likely to operate a simplified offense because of his limited preparation time with the team. Atlanta should lean on its reserve running backs, short completions, and controlled possessions rather than asking him or Strand to attack Denver aggressively downfield.
Denver should follow a similarly conservative approach. Nix is returning from ankle surgery, making an extended workload unnecessary. Payton can evaluate the offensive line and backfield by leaning on the running game once Stidham and Ehlinger take control.
The Broncos possess enough quarterback stability to remain within the spread, but their likely ball-control approach should keep the overall pace manageable. Atlanta’s offensive transition and uncertain rotation create additional reasons to expect stalled drives. A game finishing in the teens for both teams would remain below 38.5.
Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 20, Denver Broncos 17