Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Picks - Sunday, September 21, 2025
The Chargers are looking to go 3-0 this Sunday with a win over AFC West rival Denver. For great side and total picks on this game, read on for our Broncos vs. Chargers prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 1:05pm PT (4:05pm ET) at SoFi Stadium, home of the Chargers.
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Broncos reeling after late loss
The Denver Broncos (1-1) were left to rue their failure to close out a winnable game in Week 2 as they let the Colts off the hook. Denver led by eight points at the start of the third quarter thanks to J.K Dobbins' rushing TD, but were then shut out for the rest of the game while the Colts kicked three straight field goals to take the win 29-28. The loss pushes Denver back to .500 after two games, having impressed in the opener by beating the Titans 20-12. Perhaps the pivotal moment came at the start of the fourth quarter: with the Broncos still leading by five and holding the ball on Indianapolis' 28-yard line, Bo Nix threw a third-down interception to waste a golden opportunity to put the contest out of reach.
Nix has made too many of those errors so far. The second-year QB has racked up 382 passing yards and four touchdowns in his two games, but also given up three picks and a fumble, with only Bryce Young of the Panthers allowing more turnovers so far in 2025. The Broncos have looked better on the ground, with Dobbins in particular standing out. The ex-Charger has picked up 139 rushing yards in his first two games for Denver (11th in NFL) while scoring two TDs.
The Broncos' injury concerns are centered around two free agent pickups over the offseason. Tight end Evan Engram (back) was held out of Thursday's practice, as was linebacker Drew Greenlaw (quad). Greenlaw is yet to play a single snap for Denver.
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Chargers aim high
Could this be the year that the LA Chargers (2-0) finally take KC's crown in the AFC West? The team has come flying out of the stalls in 2025, beating the Chiefs in Week 1 before taking down the Raiders in a straightforward 20-9 win on Monday night. They now gear up for their third straight division game to start the season and would build up a commanding lead already with victory over Denver, as they tackle the twin objectives of assuring postseason football for a second straight year after 2024's strong 11-6 campaign, and winning the AFC West for the first time since 2009.
The Chargers have been driven by an inspired start to the season from Justin Herbert. The QB has completed 44-61 of passing attempts so far for a total of 560 yards, five TDs (tied 3rd among NFL QBs after Week 2) and zero INTs. He ranks second in the league with an average of 9.2 yards per pass thrown, behind Daniel Jones of the Colts. Quentin Johnston has caught three of those TDs to rank first among receivers in the NFL, while picking up a total of 150 receiving yards in the first two games of the season. On the other side of the ball the Chargers have also excelled, limiting the Chiefs and Raiders combined to a single touchdown, fewer than any other defense in the NFL so far.
On the injury front, CB Elijah Molden (hamstring) did not participate in Thursday's practice after missing the Raiders game. TE Will Dissly (knee) was also absent.
Spread Pick for Broncos vs. Chargers
- Chargers -2.5 (five units)
The Chargers are a great bet at this price, and I am backing them to cover against their division rivals. Herbert and his teammates took two games off Denver last year, winning both by a margin of seven points. They have gone 2-0 ATS so far in 2025 and were 5-1 last season playing as home favorite. Denver has started the year 0-2 ATS and Bo Nix has struggled with turnovers in the early going. He'll be facing a very tough defense in this matchup. The Broncos have been held to 186 passing yards/game so far in 2025 and average 2.5 turnovers, which bodes ill against a tough defense like the Chargers'. Get on LA to cover in front of its own fans and go to 3-0.
Take the Chargers.
Over/Under Pick for Broncos vs. Chargers
- Under 46.5 (five units)
Games between division rivals are often tightly fought, and I think that will be the case Sunday. Both of these teams have started strong defensively, with the Broncos holding opponents to 20.5 points per game and 184.0 passing yards and the Chargers are allowing just 15.0 ppg to date (third in NFL). Opposing teams have a red zone conversion rate of just 16.67% against LA this year, the lowest in the league.
Take the under.
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