Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders, Picks, Prediction and Odds, Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025
Sunday night football features an interconference matchup and a Broncos vs. Commanders prediction at 8:20pmET. The weather is expected to be cold and rainy in Landover, Maryland, with temps in the low 40s at kickoff. The Broncos (9-2) have won eight straight games and take on a struggling Washington (3-8) team with a backup quarterback running the show again. These teams last met on Sept. 17, 2023, with the Commanders winning 35-33 as a 3.5-point underdog at home. Both teams are coming off byes. This time, Denver will be a 5.5-point road favorite and the total is at 43.5. Check out more top plays in football on Sunday and NFL free picks on Stat Salt.
Denver coming off a bye after big win
The Broncos edged the hated AFC West rival Kansas City Chiefs in their last game before the bye, 22-19. Will Lutz hit a 35-yard field goal as time expired, which was his fifth field goal of the day. Bo Nix threw for 295 yards but no scores and had a QBR of 38.3. Denver couldn't run the football (59 yards), but they were able to hold the Chiefs to 62 yards rushing. CB Ja'Quan McMillian led the way with six tackles and two sacks.
Nix is progressing lately, with 2,421 passing yards, 18 TDs and eight picks (86.1 RTG) with a 61.2% completion rate. JK Dobbis, who is out for the year, leads with 772 rushing yards. Denver is going with RJ Harvey as the starting back (244 yds). Nix also can run the football, producing 213 yards and three TDs.
The Broncos are in first place in the AFC West due to their defense. They allow just 17.5 points per game, 185.8 passing yards and just 88.5 rushing yards (3.6ypc). LB Alex Singelton leads in tackles with 89, while LB Nick Bonitto has 33 tackles and 9.5 sacks.
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Key Injuries for Broncos:
- RB JK Dobbins (foot) is on the IR and is out for the season. Top RB
Washington will be without Daniels again
Washington will be without second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is dealing with a left elbow injury (dislocation). There was hope that he'd come back after their bye, but that wasn't the case. Daniels has had an injury-plagued season, tossing for 1,184 yards with eight TDs and two picks in six games. That means that Marcus Mariota is back under center but he will have more weapons than the last time Washington played on Nov. 16. WR Terry McLaurin, who has just 13 catches for 203 yards in four games, is back. He's missed most of the season due to a quad injury and hasn't played since Oct. 27.
The Commanders are coming off a 16-13 overtime loss to Miami in Madrid on Nov. 16. They've lost six straight games and are all but out of the playoff picture in the NFC after going to the NFC Championship game. Mariota has been serviceable with 1,065 yards passing, seven TDs and five INTs. He's also an excellent runner, who has 193 yards rushing and a TD. But the running game has never really gotten off the ground this season, with the leader being Jacory Croskey-Meritt (498yds, 4 TDs).
Washington's defense has not been going this season. They're allowing 137.5 rushing yards (4.7ypc) and 249.5 passing yards per game (8.8ypa). Offensively, due to quarterbacks who can run, they are averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 138.5 yards per game on the ground. The passing game has not been good and that's due to McLaurin, Deebo Samuel and Noah Brown playing just two games together at receiver. They average just 191.6 yards per game in the air.
Key Injuries for Washington:
- WR Noah Brown (groin/knee) is out.
- QB Jayden Daniels (left elbow) is out
- DE Drake Jackson (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice and will miss the game. Has 3 sacks.
Betting Trends for Denver vs. Washington
Denver:
- 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. Washington
Washington:
- 0-6 ATS last 6 games.
- 6-3 Over last 9 in series.
- 8-2 Over last 10 at home.
Spread Pick for Denver vs. Washington
Denver vs. Washington Pick and Prediction
- Denver 24-Washington 20
- Washington +5.5 (4 units)
Washington gets McLaurin back, which will help the passing game. Every Denver road game this season has been close. The Colts (29-28 loss), Chargers (23-20 loss), Eagles (21-17 win), and Texans (18-15 win) were all close games. Yes, Washington is not as good as those teams, but they are coming off a bye and Denver has played just one road game in their last six. Seven of Denver's nine wins are by three or fewer. Take the points at home.
- Under 43.5 (4 units)
Denver has gone under in three straight games. They've scored just 50 points in their last three game and have won all three. The weather is going to force both teams to run even more than they normally do and you're going to get a rock fight. Washington can run some with Mariotta, but that Denver run defense will be very tough.
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