Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Picks, Odds and Line Movement for December 4 2025
The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys renew their annual series once again in Detroit, marking the fourth-straight season these teams have met and setting the stage for a fascinating betting matchup for NFL fans and those hunting for the best NFL picks.
Detroit routed the Cowboys 47-9 last year behind a massive yardage edge and five Dallas turnovers, but this season’s clash features banged-up offenses, improving defenses, and a total that has climbed into the mid-50s despite plenty of reasons to consider the under.
Cowboys vs Lions Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3
- Total Pick: Under 54.5
- Projected Final Score: Cowboys 24, Lions 20
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Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | +5.5 | 54 Over/Under |
| Detroit Lions | -5.5 | 54 Over/Under |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | +3 (-106) | 54.5 Over/Under |
| Detroit Lions | -3 (-114) | 54.5 Over/Under |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Detroit | Dallas | Public (% Tickets, % Money) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/25 | 01:47:45pm | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-115) | — |
| 11/28 | 11:05:00pm | -3.5 (-120) | +3.5 (-102) | — |
| 11/30 | 10:13:39pm | -3 (-102) | +3 (-120) | — |
| 12/01 | 08:00:15am | -3 (-106) | +3 (-114) | — |
| 12/02 | 08:51:34pm | -3 (-114) | +3 (-106) | DAL 71%, 62% |
| 12/02 | 11:44:45pm | -3 (-106) | +3 (-114) | DAL 72%, 63% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public (% Tickets, % Money) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/25 | 01:47:45pm | 54 Over (-110) | 54 Under (-110) | — |
| 11/28 | 08:42:20am | 54 Over (-104) | 54 Under (-118) | — |
| 11/30 | 06:55:54pm | 53.5 Over (-115) | 53.5 Under (-105) | — |
| 12/01 | 08:00:15am | 53.5 Over (-115) | 53.5 Under (-105) | — |
| 12/01 | 11:43:18am | 53.5 Over (-120) | 53.5 Under (-102) | — |
| 12/02 | 02:59:12am | 54.5 Over (-105) | 54.5 Under (-115) | — |
| 12/02 | 03:06:14pm | 54.5 Over (-110) | 54.5 Under (-110) | 68%, 61% on Over |
Lions and Cowboys Key Matchups and Handicap
Detroit and Dallas Defensive Matchups
This is the fourth-straight meeting between these franchises in Dallas, and recent history has been lopsided on the scoreboard. Detroit demolished Dallas 47-9 last year, out-gaining the Cowboys by 241 yards while forcing five turnovers, but this season’s matchup sets up very differently. Both teams are coming off their Thanksgiving games with a normal week of rest, and the early injury news has mostly favored the defenses.
Detroit’s stop unit will look to build on a stretch where the Lions have seen four of their last five games go over the total primarily because of explosive plays and late-game chaos rather than pure efficiency. Dallas, meanwhile, has won and covered three straight, leaning on a defense that is getting healthier at the right time and should be boosted further by the expected return of star cornerback Trevon Diggs.
Lions and Cowboys Red Zone Matchup To Decide Game?
The Lions offense has been under the microscope since head coach Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties. Detroit’s numbers in the three games since that switch are middling: No. 18 in EPA per play, No. 18 in overall success rate, No. 21 in passing success rate, and No. 15 in EPA per rush attempt. Those metrics point toward a group that has been functional but far from explosive, especially compared to the perception that Detroit remains one of the league’s premier attacks.
With Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St Brown doubtful after suffering an ankle injury against Green Bay and the offensive line still battling health issues, it becomes harder to trust Detroit to finish drives consistently. The failed attempt to bring retired center Frank Ragnow back underscores the concern up front. Dallas is not immune to offensive line worries either, with Tyler Smith and Tyler Guyton both dealing with problems, but the Cowboys have been able to navigate those issues during their current three-game win and cover streak by leaning on balance and field position.
DET vs DAL Betting Trends
- Dallas has won and covered the spread in each of its last three games.
- Detroit has alternated wins and losses across its last eight contests.
- The Lions have failed to cover in their last three home games, including two outright upset losses.
- Four of Detroit’s last five games have gone over the total.
- This will be the fourth consecutive season these teams have met in Dallas.
Detroit and Dallas Key Injuries and Notes
- Lions: Wide receiver Amon-Ra St Brown exited the loss to Green Bay with an ankle injury and is doubtful, taking away Detroit’s most reliable target at a time when the offense is already regressing under new playcalling. The offensive line continues to deal with health issues, highlighted by the failed comeback attempt from retired center Frank Ragnow.
- Cowboys: Cornerback Trevon Diggs is expected to return, a major boost to a secondary that will see fewer matchups against a fully healthy Lions receiving corps. Dallas also has offensive line questions, with Tyler Smith and Tyler Guyton both managing injuries that could impact protection and run blocking.
- Coaching Angle: Dan Campbell assuming play-calling has yet to produce a major uptick in efficiency, and this matchup presents one of his tougher defensive tests since taking over that role.
ATS and Total Picks for Lions and Cowboys
With the spread dropping from Cowboys -5.5 on the opener down to the key number of -3, the market has clearly shown respect for Detroit’s ability to keep games competitive. However, recent form and injury trajectories tilt this matchup toward the home side.
- Against the Spread: Dallas +3
- Total: Under 54.5
Dallas has been the more consistent team in recent weeks, cashing three straight tickets while Detroit has been on a win-loss seesaw and struggling to cover at home. With the Lions’ best receiver likely sidelined and the offensive line still patchwork, it is hard to trust Detroit’s attack to keep pace for four full quarters against a Dallas defense trending upward.
On the total, everything points to some level of offensive dampening on both sides. Key playmakers are banged up, both lines are dealing with health issues, and neither offense has been razor-sharp in the red zone. Betting an under in a Lions and Cowboys game is uncomfortable, but the matchup dynamics and line movement justify a contrarian stance.
Final Score Prediction for Cowboys vs Lions
Given the injuries on the Lions’ side of the ball, the improving health and depth of the Cowboys secondary, and the likelihood that both coaching staffs lean a bit more conservative in a game with playoff implications, a lower-scoring script makes sense.
- Projected Final Score: Cowboys 24, Lions 20
- Spread Result: Dallas covers +3
- Total Result: 44 combined points stay under 54.5
Stats to Know for Lions vs Cowboys
- Detroit’s offense with Dan Campbell calling plays over the last three games: No. 18 in EPA per play and overall success rate, No. 21 in passing success rate, and No. 15 in EPA per rush attempt.
- Dallas has won and covered in three straight contests heading into this matchup.
- The Lions have failed to cover three consecutive home games, including two outright losses as favorites.
- Four of Detroit’s last five games have gone over, but much of that scoring has been driven by volatility rather than sustained offensive dominance.
- Public betting has leaned consistently toward Dallas on the spread and toward the over on the total, even as injury news has largely favored the defenses.
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