Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Picks for Sunday, October 12th, 2025
Use Code SSWC It’s another wall-to-wall day of football on Sunday, and all roads lead to a heavyweight cross-conference showdown on Sunday Night Football between the Detroit Lions (4-1) and the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3). We’ve got you covered with our Lions vs. Chiefs prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NFL Betting Picks!
Lions Win Fourth Straight Game
There were a lot of question marks surrounding the Detroit Lions entering the 2025 season, mainly due to the organization losing its 2024 coordinators (O: Ben Johnson, D: Aaron Glenn) to head coaching positions elsewhere in the league. That issue showed up in Week 1 when the Lions got hammered 27-13 on the road against the Packers. However, they’ve quieted any doubters since then, rattling off four straight wins against the Bears (52-21), Ravens (38-30), Browns (34-10), and Bengals (37-24). The 4-1 Lions sit atop the NFC North, and they’re priced at +100 to win the division and +700 to win the Super Bowl.
The personnel certainly isn’t a question in Detroit, as they remain one of the most talented teams in the NFL. QB Jared Goff is back, and he’s thrown for 1,187 yards on a 75.2% completion rate, adding 12 touchdowns and two picks. It’s none other than WR Amon-Ra St. Brown leading things out wide, logging 407 yards and six touchdowns on 35 receptions. The two-headed running back monster of Jahym Gibbs (325 yards, 4 TD) and David Montgomery (310 yards, 4 TD) are in mid-season form as well.
- Detroit’s offense has been elite this season, ranking first in scoring (34.8 PPG), while putting up 365.0 yards per game (sixth).
- On the defensive side, the Lions are 17th this season, allowing 22.4 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re eighth, conceding 298.8 yards per contest.
- Injury Report: Detroit had several DNPs on Thursday, including CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder), LB Zach Cunningham (hamstring), T Taylor Decker (shoulder), S Kerby Joseph (knee), and RB Sione Vaki (groin). DB Brian Branch (ankle) and WR Kalif Raymond (neck) are the notable players who practiced in a limited role.
Chiefs Slumping in 2025
The Kansas City Chiefs have become an absolute force in the NFL over the last several seasons, but things haven’t gone too well for Coach Andy Reid and his squad in 2025. The Chiefs are off to a modest 2-3 start in 2025. They recently rattled off consecutive victories over the Giants (22-9) and the Ravens (37-20), but then lost on Monday night in Jacksonville to the Jaguars (31-28). Kansas City is in third place in the division, but is sitting only 1.0 game out of the top spot. The Chiefs are priced at +190 to win the AFC West, while coming in at +1000 to win the Super Bowl.
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Future Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes is back in the saddle this year, and he has looked pretty solid under center. Mahomes has 1,257 passing yards on a 63.4% completion rate, adding eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s also the leading rusher (190 yards, 3 TD), while RBs Kareem Hunt (164 yards, 3 TD) and Isiah Pacheco (163 yards) fall in line behind. Out of all the weapons in the passing game, it has been deep-ball threat WR Tyquan Thornton atop the stat sheet in Kansas City, hauling in 13 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns.
- Offensively, the Chiefs are scoring 25.0 points per game (12th), while averaging 361.0 yards per week (eighth).
- Defensively, they are 13th in the country this year, conceding 21.4 points per game. They’re allowing 314.0 yards per contest, which is 13th.
- Injury Report: The only noteworthy Chief that was a DNP on Thursday was WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder/ankle).
Lions vs. Chiefs Pick
Spread Pick for Lions vs. Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-105) (5 units)
At first glance, this spread of Kansas City -2.5 could be a bit of a head scratcher, considering how the teams have looked recently. However, this is basically a must-win game for the Chiefs to stay in contention in the AFC West. They also have the home-field advantage, where Kansas City is 14-1 SU in its last 15 home games.
Now, Detroit will be without several of its top defensive backs, so Patrick Mahomes and this elite receiving group should absolutely feast. Check out the Lions depth chart here and just look at all of the “IR” and “Q” designations – it’s an infirmary up in Motown this week. Also, one trend that we always want to remember is how Jared Goff looks with his indoor/outdoor splits. In domed settings throughout his career, Goff has a 68.6% completion rate and a 102.9 QB rating, and those numbers dip to 63.5% and 91.8 when playing outside. It’s going to be loud on Sunday at Arrowhead, and I won’t be surprised at all if the Chiefs can force a couple of turnovers. Let’s ride with Kansas City.
Over/Under Pick for Lions vs. Chiefs
- Over 52.5 (-110) (5 units)
This is one of those games where you don’t want to overthink it when it comes to the total – just take the over! As I mentioned above, Detroit is scraping the bottom of the barrel with its DBs in this game. They’ll take on a Chiefs offense that has been firing on all cylinders this season, scoring 25.0 points per game (12th) and ranking inside the top 10 in yards per contest. With burners like WRs Tyquan Thornton and Hollywood Brown on the outside, the Chiefs have finally been able to stretch the field vertically.
On the flip side, the Lions are humming this season offensively. Personally, I thought they may take a step back with Ben Johnson not calling the plays, but I’ve never been more wrong. Detroit is ranked first in scoring (34.8 PPG) and sixth in yards per game (365.0). Meanwhile, this Kansas City defense hasn’t been sharp this year. Pro Football Focus has them currently graded a pedestrian 12th overall and just 26th against the run. Good luck stopping the Gibbs-Montgomery duo out of the backfield. I’m taking the over.
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