Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Picks - December 25, 2025
The Detroit Lions (8-7) head into U.S. Bank Stadium on Christmas Day with their postseason lives on the line as they take on the Minnesota Vikings (7-8). For Detroit, the mission is simple but urgent: they must win their final two games and receive some help from the Green Bay Packers to sneak back into the wildcard conversation. The Vikings, on the other hand, have already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention and are playing the role of spoiler. With this game streaming live on Netflix, all eyes will be on whether Detroit can handle the pressure of a "must-win" environment or if the Vikings can send their divisional rivals packing for the winter.
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Detroit Lions Fighting for Playoff Survival
The Lions enter this Week 17 clash reeling from a two-game losing streak, most recently falling 29-24 to the Steelers. Despite the recent skid, Detroit’s offense remains one of the most potent in the NFL, ranking 2nd in points scored (30.1PPG). Jared Goff has eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark again this season, and Jahmyr Gibbs has been a touchdown machine with 13 rushing scores. The big question for the Lions is the health of star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. While he dealt with knee irritation early in the week, he is expected to suit up for this critical matchup.
Defensively, the Lions have been vulnerable, especially in the secondary, ranking 25th against the pass. However, they possess a game-changer in Aidan Hutchinson, whose 11.5 sacks will be a major factor against a patchwork Minnesota offensive line. If Detroit is going to cover the 7.5-point spread, they need to force the Vikings' young quarterback into mistakes and capitalize on their superior offensive firepower.
Minnesota Vikings Turning to Youth Under Center
It has been a season of "what-ifs" for Minnesota, and the injury bug has bitten hard at the worst possible time. The Vikings will be without starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who is sidelined with a hairline fracture in his hand. This thrusts undrafted rookie Max Brosmer into the spotlight for his second career start. Brosmer showed poise in relief last week against the Giants, but facing a desperate Detroit pass rush is a much taller task.
The injury woes don't stop at QB; the Vikings are also without starting center Ryan Kelly, tackle Laremy Tunsil, and star tight end T.J. Hockenson. The silver lining remains Justin Jefferson, who is just 83 yards shy of another 1,000-yard season. Defensively, Minnesota has been surprisingly stout, ranking 3rd in the league against the pass. They will need Blake Cashman (120 tackles) and Eric Wilson (6.5 sacks) to play the games of their lives to keep this one competitive on the scoreboard.
Expert Picks and Predictions
Lions vs Vikings ATS Pick
Detroit Lions -7.5
I am laying the points with the Lions in this spot. While a 7.5-point spread on the road in a divisional game is usually a red flag, the situational disparity here is massive. Detroit is playing for their season, while Minnesota is starting an undrafted rookie quarterback behind an offensive line missing its starting center and left tackle. Aidan Hutchinson should have a field day in the backfield. Jared Goff is 7-3 as a moneyline favorite this year, and I expect him to keep the pedal down against a Vikings team that is effectively playing out the string.
O/U Pick
Under 42.5
I'm going against the grain of the Lions' high-scoring season and taking the Under. Minnesota’s defense has been their calling card all year, ranking 11th in points allowed and 3rd against the pass. They know Jared Goff well and will likely use a heavy blitz package to keep him uncomfortable. Meanwhile, I don’t see the Vikings' offense doing much heavy lifting with Max Brosmer at the helm and no Hockenson to move the chains. This feels like a game where Detroit gets out to a two-score lead and then grinds the clock with Jahmyr Gibbs to secure the win.
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