Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Picks for Sunday, September 28th, 2025
Use Code SSWC All roads lead to a marquee Sunday Night Football clash between the Green Bay Packers (2-1) and the Dallas Cowboys (1-2). These teams are famously linked due to the blockbuster Micah Parsons-Kenny Clark trade last month. We’ve got you covered with our Packers vs. Cowboys prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NFL Betting Picks!
Packers Blow a Chance for a 3-0 Start
Coach Matt LaFleur and his Green Bay Packers are looking to take the next step and cement themselves as a true contender in the NFC. They got the season started 2-0, taking down the Lions (27-13) and the Commanders (27-18). The Packers then went into Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites against the Browns and blew a 10-0 lead with less than four minutes left in the game. They ultimately lost 13-10 and now sit at 2-1. Green Bay is still a -110 favorite to win the NFC North, while sitting at +750 to win the Super Bowl.
In terms of personnel, it’s Jordan Love handling the quarterbacking responsibilities once again this season. Love has thrown for 663 yards on a 67.9% completion rate, adding five touchdowns and one interception. TE Tucker Kraft has emerged as his favorite target, hauling in 11 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. RB Josh Jacobs has spearheaded the rushing attack, gaining 180 yards and two touchdowns on 58 carries (3.1 YPC).
- Green Bay’s offense has been decent this season, ranking 18th in scoring (21.3 PPG), while putting up 300.0 yards per game (21st).
- On the defensive side, the Packers are first overall this season, allowing 14.7 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re third, conceding 232.3 yards per contest.
- Injury Report: Green Bay had three DNPs on Thursday: G Aaron Banks (groin), T Anthony Belton (ankle), and OL Zach Tom (oblique). Notable players who were limited include: RB Josh Jacobs (ankle), TE Tucker Kraft (knee/elbow), and DL Micah Parsons (back).
Cowboys Slide To 1-2
Meanwhile, the vibes are not great in Arlington for Coach Brian Schottenheimer and his Dallas Cowboys. The masses essentially discarded the Cowboys entering the season after they traded superstar DL Micah Parsons to the Packers. They also just endured an injury to star WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle). The Cowboys are 1-2 entering the weekend, and their lone win over the Giants (40-37) is bookended by losses to the Eagles (24-20) and the Bears (31-14), more recently. Dallas is 1-2 ATS and they’ve seen two of their three games stay under the total.
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Veteran quarterback Dak Prescott is back in the saddle for the Cowboys this season, and despite all of the outside noise surrounding the franchise, he has looked solid in 2025. Prescott has 800 passing yards on a 71.4% completion rate. He has logged three touchdowns and three interceptions. Aside from the aforementioned Lamb (222 yards), TE Jake Ferguson has been the lead receiver this season. He has 183 yards on 27 receptions. RB Javonte Williams has handled a bulk of the rushing work, registering 227 yards and two touchdowns on 43 totes (5.3 YPC).
- Offensively, the Cowboys are scoring 24.7 points per game (10th), while averaging 393.7 yards per week (fourth).
- Defensively, they are 27th in the NFL this year, conceding 30.7 points per game. They’re allowing 397.7 yards per contest, which is 30th.
- Injury Report: Neither WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle) nor G Tyler Booker (ankle) practiced on Thursday.
Packers vs. Cowboys Pick
Spread Pick for Packers vs. Cowboys
- Dallas Cowboys +7.0 (-115) (5 units)
As of this writing (Friday afternoon), this line is hovering in the GB -6.5 to -7.0 range. So, whether you take my betting advice or not, make sure you shop your lines and lock in your bet on the right side of this key number of 7.0 points. With that being said, considering I can get the full touchdown with the Cowboys, I’m going to take the points with them at home.
Mostly, I’m just not overly confident that the Packers have the offensive firepower to win this game by more than a touchdown. They’re just not built as an explosive offense, which is exemplified by the fact that they’re just 16th in yards per play (5.3) this season. Green Bay is also just 18th in scoring this season (21.3 PPG). Their inability to stretch out leads has translated to the sports betting world, where the Packers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games. Ultimately, I believe Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will avoid getting blown out at home – give me the points with Dallas.
Over/Under Pick for Packers vs. Cowboys
- Over 47.5 (-110) (5 units)
When these two teams meet in the Lone Star State, the over has been a VERY profitable venture. In their last seven games in Dallas, the over is 7-0. This game has all of the pieces necessary for another over to cash, so I’ll ride with the over on Sunday Night Football.
Sure, CeeDee Lamb (ankle) is going to be missed, but Dallas still has plenty of weapons for Dak Prescott to distribute the ball to. This offense has been rolling this year, averaging 24.7 points per game (10th) and 393.7 yards per contest (fourth). They’ll be on their speedy turf in front of their home crowd and I anticipate the Cowboys clearing 21 points in this game. Their high-powered offense should also force Green Bay into a pass-first, high-scoring mentality as well. With a game featuring two competent quarterbacks and two offensive-minded head coaches, I’m not going to overthink it – give me the over.
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