Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 13 2026

The Green Bay Packers travel to U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 13, with kickoff scheduled for 4:25 PM ET. Green Bay finished 9-7-1 last season, while Minnesota finished 9-8 after closing the year on a five-game winning streak. Minnesota is currently around a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 45.5, although some books have already moved around that number. With the NFL season just kicking off it is a great time to find the best free NFL picks.

Green Bay Enters Week 1 Without Two Major Stars

Jordan Love remains the centerpiece of Green Bay's offense, but the Packers enter Week 1 dealing with significant personnel losses around him. Most notably, Green Bay is expected to open without running back Josh Jacobs and defensive star Micah Parsons. Losing one of the offense's most important skill players and arguably the defense's premier difference-maker materially changes this matchup.

Love still gives Green Bay stability at quarterback and extensive familiarity with the offensive system. That matters against a Minnesota defense that will be preparing for the Packers while simultaneously adjusting to major changes on its own roster.

The absence of Jacobs could put additional responsibility on Love and Green Bay's passing game. That's not necessarily fatal, but it makes the Packers easier to defend if Minnesota can generate pressure without devoting additional defenders to stopping the run.

Parsons' absence could be even more important against Kyler Murray. One of the best ways to contain a mobile quarterback is to create pressure while maintaining disciplined rush lanes. Removing Green Bay's premier pass-rushing weapon gives Murray more opportunities to extend plays and punish coverage after the original play breaks down.

Kyler Murray Makes His Minnesota Debut

The Vikings made one of the biggest quarterback changes of the offseason by bringing in Kyler Murray, and Minnesota has confirmed that Murray will make his Vikings debut as the starter against Green Bay. J.J. McCarthy remains on the roster after making 10 starts last season, with Carson Wentz providing additional veteran depth.

Murray inherits an impressive collection of weapons. Justin Jefferson remains one of the league's premier receivers, with Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings also on Minnesota's initial roster. T.J. Hockenson remains the primary tight end, while Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason give the Vikings options in the backfield.

There is some uncertainty because Murray has had limited preseason work with his new offense. That's an important reason not to overreact to Minnesota's personnel advantage. Timing with receivers, protection adjustments and communication within a new system can take regular-season snaps to fully develop.

Still, Murray's mobility becomes particularly attractive with Parsons unavailable. Minnesota doesn't need Murray to immediately produce a 300-yard passing performance. If he can create several explosive plays with his arm and legs while Jefferson forces Green Bay to devote additional attention outside, the Vikings should generate enough offense to win.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Prediction

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -1.5

This is one of my stronger Week 1 positions at the current number. Green Bay is a legitimate contender when healthy, but entering Minnesota without Jacobs and Parsons is a substantial handicap. Murray is playing his first regular-season game in Kevin O'Connell's offense, so there is certainly some risk, but he is surrounded by Jefferson, Addison, Jennings and Hockenson and gets the benefit of playing the opener at U.S. Bank Stadium. At only -1.5, we're essentially asking Minnesota to win the game. Take the Vikings.

Pick: Under 45.5

I also lean Under 45.5. Murray may eventually thrive in this offense, but his first regular-season game with a new team is not the ideal situation for projecting maximum efficiency. Green Bay missing Jacobs could reduce its offensive balance, while Minnesota has every reason to avoid putting unnecessary pressure on Murray early. This can still feature several explosive plays without turning into a shootout. Something around 24-20 puts us underneath the number.

Final Picks: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 and Under 45.5