Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Picks - September 21, 2025
The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Houston Texans at EverBank Stadium, and we have you ready to go with the Texans vs Jaguars prediction! Kickoff is slated for 1:00 PM Eastern as the Texans look to get their first win of the season. Read on for the Texans vs Jaguars prediction and more free NFL picks.
Houston Loses Late In Home Opener
Houston scored with just over three minutes to go, taking the lead in the process. They ultimately were ousted by a Tampa Bay score with just a few ticks remaining on the clock. C.J. Stroud led the offense, going 13/24 for 207 yards and a score. Nick Chubb led the ground game, which included a 25-yard scamper for a score, which gave Houston the lead. Houston finished 2-9 on 3rd downs and allowed Tampa Bay to put up over 350 yards of total offense.
Houston enters the season having averaged 14.0 points per game, placing them dead last in the league so far. Their offense has struggled to move the ball efficiently, ranking 28th in total yards per game with an imbalanced reliance on both the rush and the pass. Houston’s third-down conversion rate has been abysmal—just 22% on 19 attempts across their first two games. They’ve also yet to find the end zone inside the red zone, recording a 0% red-zone touchdown rate this season. Stroud has hovered around the bottom 10 in completion rate, which can be attributed to his high sack rate, which sits bottom three in the league.
Key Team Stats:
- Yards Per Game: 265.5
- Points Per Game: 14
- Stroud TD/INT: 1/1
Defensively, Houston has shown flashes of competitiveness, allowing 17.0 points per game, which ranks them in the top 10. Their run defense has been middling as they allow around 4.5 yards per carry and over 120 ground yards per game. Through the air, opposing quarterbacks are completing throws at a near 69% clip. On the plus side, the Texans are sitting 8th in sack rate. The defense has struggled to get off the field on 3rd downs, with foes converting at over 48% and their red zone defense sits near the bottom 10 in football.
WR Christian Kirk (hamstring), S Jalen Pitre, CB Kamari Lassiter (knee) and CB Jaylin Smith are questionable.
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Jags Look To Go 2-0 At Home
Jacksonville was unable to stop the Bengals as a late touchdown saw them go down on the road. The Jaguars were led by Trevor Lawrence, who finished 24/42 for 271 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Travis Etienne Jr. averaged over five yards per carry as he rushed for 71 yards on 14 carries. Jacksonville finished 6-13 on 3rd down and allowed just one sack. The defense forced three turnovers and got to the backfield three times.
Jacksonville enters this contest averaging 26.5 points per game, which lands them at 7th in the league. Through two games, the Jaguars are averaging 5.8 yards per play, good for 8th in football. The run game—led by Travis Etienne Jr.—has shown flashes, as Etienne has produced 214 rushing yards across his 30 touches, but a lack of chunk plays and consistency has limited momentum. Jacksonville has climbed into the top half of the league in 3rd down conversion rate, but they have struggled when inside the 20s, as they sit 24th in red zone success. Lawrence has struggled to find completions as he sits 28th in completion rate, but he has been able to get the ball out and is being sacked at the lowest rate in the league.
Key Team Stats:
- Yards Per Game: 389
- Points Per Game: 26.5
- Lawrence TD/INT: 4/3
On defense, Jacksonville has allowed 20.50 points per game. They’ve given up around 300 yards per game, which is good for 10th in the NFL. That said, they have struggled to get off the field on 3rd downs as opponents are moving the chains on nearly 50% of their 3rd down tries. Jacksonville has been pretty middle of the road in terms of red zone defense. The run defense has been able to stuff the run, allowing fewer than four yards per carry, and the pass defense has climbed into the top five in opposing QB completion percentage. The pass rush has struggled to get to the backfield; however, the secondary continues to do well in limiting the chunk plays downfield.
On the injury front, OL Ezra Cleveland (ankle) and WR Brian Thomas (wrist) are questionable.
Texans vs. Jaguars Pick
Side Prediction for Texans vs Jaguars
- Texans +1.5 (4 Units)
It is never easy taking the road team in a divisional matchup, but the Texans certainly have their back against the wall here. Jacksonville has struggled getting opponents off the field on 3rd downs this season, and its inability to disrupt the backfield should allow Stroud to get settled in somewhat early here. Don't be surprised if a late score goes in the Texans' favor here.
Houston +1.5
Total Prediction Texans vs Jaguars
- Under 44.5 (4 Units)
Jacksonville leads the league in yards per carry, and they are running at a near top-10 rate. Additionally, they have struggled to come away with scores inside the red zone. Houston has not been effective on 3rd down this season, and with Jacksonville having a knack for coming away with interceptions, look for a couple of turnovers here.
Under 44.5
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