Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Picks and Prediction for Sunday October 11, 2026
The Houston Texans will head to Nashville, Tennessee, Sunday afternoon for an AFC South matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Kickoff is set for 1 PM with coverage on CBS. Houston enters the weekend with an 0-4 record following a 34-30 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week. The Texans have struggled to close out games and will look to pick up their first victory of the season against a division opponent. Tennessee has also gotten off to a disappointing start, coming into the game with an 0-4 record after falling 24-18 to the Baltimore Ravens. The Titans will return home looking to end their losing streak and get their season moving in the right direction. Houston is listed as a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 37.5 points. The Texans are -394 on the money line, while Tennessee comes in at +310. Stay in the news with our NFL Picks.
Houston looks for first win
CJ Stroud is leading the Houston offense this season with 1141 yards and five scores on 93 completions, along with 66 yards on 9 carries. David Montgomery leads the team on the ground with 127 yards and two touchdowns on 47 carries, and Woody Marks has added 87 yards for two touchdowns on 28 carries. Dalton Schultz is leading the Houston offense this season with 214 yards on 21 receptions. Nico Collins has 14 catches for 193 yards and three scores this season.
The Houston offense did move the ball well last week, scoring 30 points on 397 total yards but converting just three third downs in the game. Defensively, Houston was outmatched, giving up 34 points on nearly 400 total yards. CJ Stroud led the way for the Houston offense last week, completing 21 passes for 347 yards and two scores. David Montgomery added 24 yards on 10 carries to lead the team. Nico Collins was the top receiver on the roster for Houston with 118 yards and two touchdowns on 7 receptions.
Key Injury Report for Houston:
- Braden Smith (IR-R) – Foot
- Kayden McDonald (IR-R) – Ankle
- Tank Dell (IR-R) – Knee
- Aireontae Erserty (Questionable) – Illness
- Ed Ingram (Questionable) -Illness
Tennessee looks for the home victory
Cam Ward is leading the Tennessee offense this season with 726 yards and three touchdowns on 75 completions. Tony Pollard is the top running back on the team with 221 yards and one touchdown on 54 carries. Carnell Tate leads the Tennessee offense this season with 268 yards on 22 receptions. Wan’Dale Robinson has added 16 catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns.
The Tennessee offense was bad last week, scoring just 18 points on 297 total yards after converting only two third downs and turning the ball over twice. Defensively, Tennessee was outmatched, giving up 24 points on 384 yards. Cam Ward led the show for the Tennessee offense last week, completing 20 passes for 222 yards and one score. Tony Pollard was the top running back with 48 yards and one touchdown on 16 carries. Carnell Tate led the team with 145 yards on 9 receptions. Wan’Dale Robinson chipped in 19 yards and one touchdown on three catches.
Key Injury Report for Tennessee:
- David Martin-Robinson (Questionable) – Hamstring
- Gunnar Helm (Questionable) – Knee
- Joshua Williams (IR-R) – Pec
- Amani Hooker (Questionable ) - concussion
- Jeffery Simmons (Questionable) – Back
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Picks and Prediction
Pick: Houston Texans -7.5 (-105)
Houston has a chance to finally break into the win column Sunday when the Texans take on Tennessee in an AFC South matchup. Both teams have struggled through the first four weeks, but Houston has shown more offensive potential and should be able to take advantage of a Tennessee team that has had difficulty finding success. The Texans put up 30 points against Dallas last week and will look to carry that offensive production into this game. Tennessee will need to establish its offense and avoid falling behind early against a Houston team desperate for a victory. The Titans could make things interesting at home, but the Texans should be able to move the football and make enough defensive plays to secure their first win.
Pick: Over 37.5 (-115)
Houston and Tennessee have both struggled this season, but the low total creates an opportunity for the offenses to do enough to push the scoring over the number. The Texans showed improvement offensively last week with 30 points against Dallas and should be able to find success against the Titans. Tennessee has had difficulty producing consistent offense, but playing at home against a winless Houston team could help the Titans create scoring opportunities. Both defenses have shown weaknesses that opposing offenses can take advantage of, especially if turnovers lead to short fields. Houston should lead the way offensively, while Tennessee should be able to contribute enough points to help the combined score finish above the total.