Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Picks - December 7, 2025
Sunday afternoon National Football League action, and we have an Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction locked and loaded for you. The Colts are off a 20-17 home loss to Houston to fall to 8-4 on the year. The Jags are also at 8-4, but they are off a 25-3 road win over Tennessee. This is the first meeting between these teams this year. Read on to see our Colts vs Jaguars prediction.
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Colts Fall To Texans At Home
The Colts’ most recent game was a 20–16 loss to the Houston Texans on November 30, where Daniel Jones threw for 201 yards and two touchdowns but couldn’t complete a late comeback drive after a critical drop stalled the offense. It was the second straight defeat for Indianapolis, and the first time this season their high‑powered offense was held under 20 points.
Despite the setback, the Colts remain one of the league’s most dangerous offensive teams, averaging 375.4 total yards per game (4th) and nearly 30 points per game (2nd). Jonathan Taylor continues to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards and 15 touchdowns, giving Indy balance alongside Jones’ 3,041 passing yards and 19 TDs. Alec Pierce and tight end Tyler Warren have emerged as reliable targets, while Michael Pittman Jr. provides steady production. The Colts have committed only 12 turnovers (10th fewest), a key reason they’ve stayed in contention despite recent struggles.
Defensively, Indianapolis has been inconsistent, ranking 21st in total defense (344.5 yards allowed) and struggling against the pass (246.3 yards allowed, 27th). They’ve been stronger against the run (98.3 yards allowed, 7th) and have held opponents to 20.8 points per game (10th). Injuries are a concern: CB Sauce Gardner (calf, out), and WR Josh Downs (hip/knee, questionable) headline the list. With Jones playing through a fibula issue and DE Tyquan Lewis limited by an ankle injury, the Colts enter Jacksonville shorthanded in key spots.
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Jags Crush Titans At Home
Jacksonville’s most recent game was a 25–3 win over the Tennessee Titans on November 30, where Trevor Lawrence threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns while Jakobi Meyers hauled in six catches for 90 yards and a score. The Jaguars dominated defensively, holding Tennessee to just 141 passing yards and 67 rushing yards, marking their third straight victory.
Offensively, Jacksonville has been steady, averaging 326.0 total yards per game (19th) and 24.3 points per game (11th). Lawrence has thrown for 2,636 yards with 16 touchdowns, though turnovers (11 INTs) remain an issue. Travis Etienne provides balance with 843 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while Meyers has quickly become Lawrence’s top target with 448 receiving yards. The Jaguars’ ability to sustain drives has improved, and they’ve committed 14 turnovers (14th), keeping them in games even when the offense isn’t explosive.
Defensively, Jacksonville has been one of the league’s most physical units, ranking 11th in total defense (312.5 yards allowed) and first against the run (82.4 yards allowed per game). They allow just 21.1 points per game (12th) and have generated 13 takeaways (3rd). Injuries, however, could impact their front: OT Walker Little (concussion, out), S Andrew Wingard (concussion, out), and DE Travon Walker (knee, questionable) are notable absences. DT Arik Armstead (hand, questionable) and WR Parker Washington (hip, questionable) also remain uncertain. Even with those concerns, Josh Hines‑Allen has been a force off the edge, and LB Foye Oluokun continues to pile up tackles, giving Jacksonville confidence heading into this divisional showdown.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick
Colts vs Jaguars Spread Pick
- Jaguars +1.5 (5 Units)
Backing Jacksonville +1.5 has merit because the Jaguars have been playing their best football of the season, coming off a 25–3 win over Tennessee where Trevor Lawrence threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns while the defense completely shut down the Titans’ offense. That victory marked their third straight, and during that run they’ve leaned on a defense that ranks first in the NFL against the run (82.4 yards allowed per game) and sits 12th in points allowed (21.1 per game). Travis Etienne continues to provide balance with over 800 rushing yards, and Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a reliable target, giving Lawrence enough weapons to keep drives alive. Against an Indianapolis team that has struggled to defend the pass (246.3 yards allowed, 27th), Jacksonville has the matchup edge to stay competitive.
The other angle is how well Jacksonville’s defense matches up against the Colts’ strengths. Indianapolis averages nearly 30 points per game (2nd) and ranks top‑10 in both passing and rushing offense, but they’ve shown vulnerability when facing physical fronts, as seen in their 20–16 loss to Houston last week. The Jaguars’ ability to generate takeaways (13, 3rd in the league) combined with their run‑stopping unit makes them uniquely suited to slow Jonathan Taylor and force Daniel Jones into tougher throws. With the Colts missing key defensive pieces like DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner, Jacksonville has a clearer path to exploit mismatches. Getting points with a team riding momentum and boasting the league’s best run defense makes the Jaguars +1.5 a strong play.
Colts vs Jaguars Over/Under Pick
- Under 46.5 (4 Units)
The Under 46.5 feels like the right lean because both defenses have strengths that can slow this game down, even with Indianapolis ranking second in the league at nearly 30 points per game. The Colts were held to just 16 points in their loss to Houston, showing they can be contained when facing a physical front, and Jacksonville’s defense has been one of the best against the run, allowing only 82.4 yards per game, while giving up just 21.1 points per game overall. On the other side, the Jaguars’ offense has been steady but not explosive, averaging 24.3 points per game, and they’ve leaned on Travis Etienne and short passing to sustain drives rather than hitting big plays. With Indy’s defense strong against the run (98.3 yards allowed, 7th) and Jacksonville’s unit built to grind opponents down, this matchup has the makings of a slower, possession‑driven contest that stays below the 46.5 total.
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