Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Picks - November 23, 2025
Use Code SSWC National Football League action on Sunday afternoon, and we have an Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction locked and loaded for you. Indianapolis comes into this contest off a 31-25 home win over the Falcons to move to 8-2 on the year. Kansas City is a disappointing 5-5 on the season so far, and they are off a 22-19 loss at Denver. These teams met back in 2022, and Indy won that game at home by a score of 20-17. Read on to see our Colts vs Chiefs prediction.
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Colts Hold Off The Falcons In OT
The Colts enter this matchup riding high at 8-2 after a thrilling 31-25 overtime win against the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin, a game that showcased their offensive firepower and resilience. Jonathan Taylor was the star, rushing for 244 yards and three touchdowns, including an electrifying 83-yard score that shifted momentum late. Daniel Jones complemented the ground attack with 255 passing yards and a touchdown, while the defense held firm in overtime to secure the victory. It was the kind of performance that reinforced Indianapolis as one of the league’s most complete teams, capable of winning in multiple ways and thriving under pressure.
Offensively, Indianapolis has been nothing short of dominant, ranking first in the NFL in points per game (32.1) and total yards. Jones has been efficient and steady, completing nearly 70% of his passes for 2,659 yards and 15 touchdowns, while Taylor continues to look like the best back in football with 1,139 rushing yards and 15 scores. Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce provide reliable targets, combining for over 1,100 receiving yards, while tight end Tyler Warren has emerged as a steady option with 617 yards and three touchdowns. The balance between Jones’ accuracy and Taylor’s explosiveness makes this unit difficult to contain, especially behind an offensive line that consistently opens lanes and protects the quarterback.
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Defensively, the Colts have been strong against the run, ranking fifth in rushing yards allowed (92.3 per game), but the secondary has been more vulnerable, giving up 235 passing yards per contest. Linebacker Zaire Franklin continues to anchor the unit, while the pass rush has generated timely pressure to disrupt opposing quarterbacks. The Colts have forced 10 takeaways, and their ability to stiffen in the red zone has kept opponents from matching their offensive pace. Against Kansas City, the challenge will be slowing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but Indy’s defensive front has shown it can disrupt even elite quarterbacks, giving them confidence heading into this showdown.
Chiefs Are Having An Average Year
Kansas City fell to 5-5 after a 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos, a game decided by Wil Lutz’s last-second field goal. Patrick Mahomes threw for 276 yards and a touchdown to Travis Kelce, but the Chiefs once again faltered in a close contest, dropping to 0-5 in one-score games this season. Kareem Hunt added a rushing touchdown, but Denver’s defense forced Mahomes into an interception and sacked him twice, continuing a frustrating stretch for Andy Reid’s team. The loss highlighted Kansas City’s inability to finish games, a troubling trend for a team that has otherwise shown flashes of dominance.
On offense, Mahomes has still produced at a high level, throwing for 2,625 yards and 18 touchdowns, but turnovers and inconsistency have plagued the unit. Kelce remains the focal point with 631 yards and four scores, while Hollywood Brown and Tyquan Thornton have added big-play ability, combining for over 800 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. The ground game has been serviceable, with Hunt scoring six times and Isaiah Pacheco (questionable) contributing 329 yards, but Kansas City ranks just 16th in rushing offense. The Chiefs’ attack is dangerous, yet it has lacked the finishing touch in tight games, something they’ll need to correct against a Colts team that rarely lets opponents off the hook.
Defensively, Kansas City has been one of the league’s best, ranking fourth in points allowed (18.1 per game) and seventh in total yards. George Karlaftis and Chris Jones continue to anchor a pass rush that has kept opponents in check, while Nick Bolton leads the team with 81 tackles. The secondary has held opponents under 200 passing yards per game, but the run defense has been more vulnerable, allowing 100 yards per contest. Facing Taylor and the Colts’ top-ranked offense will be a major test, and the Chiefs will need their defense to carry the load if they want to avoid a third straight loss.
Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick
Colts vs Chiefs Spread Pick
- Kansas City -3.5 (2 Units)
Kansas City -3.5 lines up well both statistically and situationally. The Chiefs may be sitting at 5-5, but Patrick Mahomes has still thrown for over 2,600 yards with 18 touchdowns, and Travis Kelce remains a reliable anchor in the passing game. Their defense has been one of the league’s best, ranking fourth in points allowed, and that unit gives them a strong foundation against an Indianapolis offense that leads the NFL in scoring. The Chiefs’ balance between Mahomes’ playmaking and a defense that consistently keeps opponents under 20 points per game makes them a tough matchup, especially at home where they’ve historically thrived.
The betting angle adds even more weight to the play. Since 1990, 5-5 NFL teams facing an .800 or better opponent as a favorite are 12-0-2 ATS, a remarkable trend that underscores how these spots tend to favor the team with urgency and pedigree. Kansas City also benefits from the fact that Indianapolis is coming off a high‑energy win overseas, while the Chiefs are in a prime bounce‑back position after a close divisional loss. With Mahomes capable of elevating the offense and the defense playing at a top‑five level, laying the 3.5 points fits both the numbers and the historical trends.
Colts vs Chiefs Over/Under Pick
- Under 50.5 (3 Units)
The Under 50.5 sets up well given both the matchup history and the situational angles. Kansas City has gone 0-7 to the Under at home against opponents with a .750 or better record, a trend that reflects how their defense rises to the occasion in marquee games. On top of that, the last five meetings between the Colts and Chiefs have all stayed Under the total, with an average of just 35.2 points per game being scored. With Indy’s defense ranking top‑10 in points allowed and Kansas City’s unit sitting fourth in the league, this game profiles more as a grind than a shootout, making the Under 50.5 the sharper side.
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