Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos Prediction, Picks, Odds, and Line Movement for December 21 2025
Jacksonville vs Denver picks are front and center in this AFC showdown, and this breakdown looks at the odds, trends, and matchup angles to help shape a betting decision. I am also keeping an eye on the broader market context alongside the latest NFL picks as we head into kickoff.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Broncos -3
- Total Pick: Over 45
- Projected Final Score: Broncos 27, Jaguars 23
Stats to Know for Jacksonville vs Denver
- Denver has won 11 straight games and is the first AFC team to clinch a playoff berth.
- The Broncos have scored 26.8 points per game over their last four contests.
- Denver ranks top five in EPA per play and passing success rate over the last month.
Odds and Line Movement
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | +3 | 45 |
| Denver | -3 | 45 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Jacksonville | Denver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 10:09:25AM | +3 (-105) | -3 (-115) |
| 12/15 | 07:01:38AM | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| 12/14 | 07:35:58PM | +3 (-120) | -3 (-102) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 11:02:00AM | 46.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) |
| 12/15 | 07:01:39AM | 45 (-110) | 45 (-110) |
| 12/14 | 09:11:54PM | 44 (-108) | 44 (-112) |
Jacksonville vs Denver Game Preview and Analysis
Denver has won and covered each of the last two meetings, but this is the first matchup between these AFC foes since October 2022. Both teams come in red hot, which makes this one of the most intriguing games of the week. Jacksonville has won and covered five straight contests and can clinch a playoff berth with a win plus help from either Indianapolis or Houston.
Denver has already punched its postseason ticket and can lock up the AFC West with a win here and a Chargers loss. I have been skeptical of the Broncos offense during this 11-game winning streak, but Bo Nix has taken a noticeable step forward over the last month. After two ugly games against Houston and Las Vegas, Denver has averaged 26.8 points per game over the last four weeks.
During that stretch, the Broncos rank No. 5 in EPA per play, No. 2 in success rate, No. 4 in EPA per drop-back, and No. 4 in passing success rate. Those numbers include games against Kansas City and Green Bay, two of the better defenses in the league. If Nix and the offense can deliver again, I will happily take my serving of humble pie.
Jacksonville has looked very good behind Trevor Lawrence, but the recent competition matters. The Jaguars’ five-game run came against Arizona, Tennessee, Indianapolis with Riley Leonard, and the Jets. This is a step up in class on the road, and at this number, I am comfortable backing the better team at home.
Betting Trends for JAX and DEN
- Jacksonville is 5-0 straight-up and against the spread over its last five games.
- Denver has covered both of the last two meetings in this series.
- The Broncos have averaged nearly 27 points per game over the last four weeks.
Key Injuries and Notes for JAX and DEN
- Both teams enter this matchup in strong form with no major new injuries highlighted.
- Denver has already clinched a playoff spot and can secure the AFC West with a win.
Final Score Prediction
Denver 27, Jacksonville 23
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: Denver -3
- Over Under: Over 45