Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Picks and Prediction, Sunday, November 9, 2025
AFC South action heats up in the Big D this Sunday with the Texans vs. Jaguars prediction. The Jaguars (5-3) beat the Texans (3-5) earlier this season at home and won their last game after losing two in a row, and Houston has dropped two of their last three games. Get the full score info, matchup, and injury info in this Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans prediction.
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The Jags are a slight 1-point favorite in this game, with the total sitting at 37.
Jaguars’ Offense Comes Alive
After losing two games totaling 19 points to teams that have solid defenses, the Jaguars played a struggling Las Vegas Raiders’ defense in their last game in a 30-29 road OT win. They outgained the Raiders 367 yards to 331 yards and rushed for 151 yards, holding Vegas to 57 rushing yards. Trevor Lawrence passed for 220 yards with no TDs and one pick, but had two rushing TDs. Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 84 yards, and Parker Washington had 90 receiving yards. The game was a pick with Jax a 1-point favorite, and they failed to cover in their previous two games.
The offense for the Jags has been pretty balanced and they rank 21st in the league in scoring (22 ppg) and tied for 17th in points against (23 ppg).
Lawrence (1,840 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT) only ranks 26th in the league in QBR, has only two games with multiple passing TDs, and was sacked 14 times in two games before only one in the last one. Etienne Jr. (598 yards, 2 TD) had not rushed for over 49 yards in three games before rushing for 84 yards in the last one. Jax has a banged-up WR corps, as lead receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (420 yards, 1 TD) is questionable and Travis Hunter (298 yards, 1 TD) in on IR. On the season, the Jags are 2-1 on the road.
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Key Injuries
WR Dyami Brown (219 yards, 1 TD) is also questionable as are four players on the defensive side of the ball, including Jourdan Lewis, who ranks fifth in tackles and has two interceptions.
Texans Wasting a Great Defense
The Texans are two games under .500 despite the fact that they lead the NFL in scoring defense, only giving up an average of 15.1 ppg. In their last game, they were at home in an 18-15 loss to the Denver Broncos, where they only had three fewer yards (268 to 271) and forced the only turnover, but only rushed for 77 yards and were a horrid 3-17 on third down conversions. C.J. Stroud passed for 79 yards before leaving with a concussion, and David Mills came in and passed for 137 yards with no TDs and no INTs. Nick Chubb and Woody Marks combined for 61 rushing yards, but neither averaged over 3.1 yards per carry, and Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins combined for 152 receiving yards. Houston failed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite and is 3-5 ATS on the season.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +867.00 |
| 2 |  Marc David | +691.00 |
| 3 |  Bruce Marshall | +656.00 |
| 4 |  Patty Reyes | +390.00 |
| 5 |  Arthur Reyes | +182.00 |
The Texans only rank tied for 24th in scoring (21 ppg) and 17th in passing yards per game and 21st in rushing yards per game. Stroud (1,702, yards 11 TD, 5 INT) is out and Mills (160 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT) will get the start in only his third appearance of the season. Chubb (355 yards, 2 TD) is listed as questionable but practiced Thursday, so he should play. Collins (414 yards, 3 TD) and Schultz (385 yards, 0 TD) are the top two targets and the only players with more than 222 receiving yards. On the season, Houston is 2-2 at home.
Key Injuries
Besides Stroud being out and Chubb questionable, the Texans have two starting offensive linemen questionable and two defensive starters questionable, including sack leader Will Anderson Jr. (6 sacks).
Jaguars vs. Texans Pick
Spread Pick for Jaguars vs. Texans
- Texans +1 (4 Units)
The Jags rank a solid third in the league defending the run, but Mills will be facing their pass defense that only ranks 27th. The Texans have had scoring issues this season and it does not help their QB is out. The Jags beat a weak Raiders’ team in their last game, and while Lawrence had two rushing TDs, he was not impressive, as has been the case most of the season. Mills had trouble moving the chains in the last game, but was facing a solid Denver secondary, which Jax does not have. Regarding the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans prediction, even with Stroud out, the defense will continue to play well, and the Texans will do just enough on offense to get the win.
Over/Under Pick for Jaguars vs. Texans
- Under 37 (+5 Units)
The total went well Under when these teams met earlier this season in Jacksonville, and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. The Texans have had scoring issues this season; they only scored 15 points in their last game, and their starting QB is out. While they are facing a weak Jags’ secondary, they have their backup playing, and their run game will face a run defense that ranks third in the league. Houston will not put up many points, but neither will the Jags, who will be facing the top-ranked scoring defense in the NFL. This game will be like the first matchup in a defensive battle, so the Under is the way to go in a low-scoring affair.
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