Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans Prediction, Picks, Odds, and Line Movement for December 21 2025
Kansas City vs Tennessee picks take center stage in this AFC matchup, and this breakdown dives into the betting angles, trends, and line movement to help shape a wager. I will also reference the latest NFL picks and market data to frame how this game is being priced heading into kickoff.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Titans +3
- Total Pick: Over 37
- Projected Final Score: Titans 24, Chiefs 20
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Odds and Line Movement
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | -3 | 37 |
| Tennessee | +3 | 37 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Kansas City | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 04:43:43PM | -3 (-110) | +3 (-110) |
| 12/17 | 12:59:07PM | -3 (-110) | +3 (-110) |
| 12/16 | 11:23:31AM | -3.5 (-105) | +3.5 (-115) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 12:59:39PM | 37 (-102) | 37 (-120) |
| 12/15 | 07:01:39AM | 37 (-110) | 37 (-110) |
| 12/14 | 06:45:43PM | 37 (-110) | 37 (-110) |
Kansas City vs Tennessee Game Preview and Analysis
Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to how Kansas City will respond the rest of the way. The Chiefs have already been eliminated from postseason contention and will play the remainder of the season without Patrick Mahomes. This marks the first time Kansas City has missed the playoffs since 2014, and it creates a difficult handicap when trying to project motivation and execution.
Kansas City is 1-5 straight-up and 0-6 against the spread over its last six games, and veteran backup Gardner Minshew is expected to handle quarterback duties the rest of the season. That shift lowers the ceiling of this offense and increases the likelihood of mistakes, which plays directly into how Tennessee games have been unfolding.
I have been riding the over train in Titans games and I am not getting off now. Six of Tennessee’s last eight contests have gone over the total, and nearly every one of those games has featured something unusual on defense or special teams. In last week’s loss to San Francisco, a sack and fumble deep in 49ers territory led directly to a Titans touchdown. The week before, Tennessee scored 20 points directly off turnovers and special teams plays in a win over Cleveland.
Cam Ward and the Titans offense clearly have limitations, but Tennessee continues to manufacture points in creative ways. Against a Chiefs team now led by Minshew, I would not be surprised to see another defensive or special teams score tip the balance in this matchup.
Betting Trends for KC and TEN
- Kansas City is 0-6 against the spread in its last six games.
- Kansas City is 1-5 straight-up and 0-6 against the spread over its last six games.
- Tennessee has seen six of its last eight games go over the total.
- The Titans have generated multiple defensive or special teams touchdowns during their recent stretch of overs.
Key Injuries and Notes for KC and TEN
- Kansas City will be without Patrick Mahomes for the remainder of the season.
- Gardner Minshew is expected to start at quarterback for the Chiefs.
Final Score Prediction
Tennessee 24, Kansas City 20
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: Tennessee +3
- Over Under: Over 37
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