Kansas City Chiefs versus Denver Broncos, Picks and Predictions, Sunday, November 16, 2025
The Chiefs are traveling to Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado, for their week 11 matchup against the Broncos; keep reading for our Chiefs versus Broncos prediction. Temperatures are in the 60s in mid-November in Denver. Kansas City is third in the AFC West with a record of 5-4. Denver leads the AFC West with a record of 8-2. The Denver Broncos had a record of 1-1 against the Chiefs in 2024. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. EST. If you need quality winners, this is the ultimate site for NFL Picks.
Chiefs Returning From Bye Week
Kansas City is coming off a bye week last week, but the week prior, they had suffered a loss against the Bills with a final score of 28-21. This would break up their three-game win streak as they lose hold of the top of their division. The Chiefs will be looking for a much-needed win to stay in playoff contention over the Broncos on Sunday.
The Chiefs are dominating on defense, ranking third overall in points allowed and fourth overall in yards allowed. What has been impressive has been their pass defense which is fifth in the league in yards allowed. The Chiefs also lead the league in plays as they limit their opposition from converting on third down. Kansas City is third in first downs allowed this season and has made it difficult for most teams to generate much offense against them.
On offense, we are seeing the usual out of the Chiefs, which is quarterback Patrick Mahomes generating points and yards consistently throughout each week. Thanks to Mahomes, the Chiefs sit seventh in passing yards as he averages 261 yards per game and has 17 touchdowns across his nine games played. The run game, while not being utilized as much, has found success generating the 13th most rushing yards overall. Leading their run game is running back Isiah Pacheco, who has averaged 41.1 yards per game but has only one touchdown on the year. Kareem Hunt (294 yds) is expected to start, with Pacheco likely to miss this game. Mahome has more rushing yards than Lamar Jackson this season, with 285 (though Jackson has missed three games).
Injuries:
- Xavier Worthy WR Questionable (ankle)
- Isaiah Pacheco, RB (knee), is out
- George Karlaftis DE Questionable (thumb)
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Denver Dominating Despite Playing From Behind
The Broncos grabbed another win last Thursday night against the Raiders with a final score of 10-7 in one of the most ugly games imaginable that featured more punts than points for Las Vegas. Both teams finished with more penalties than first downs, which hasn't happened in 49 years. Yet this ugly division win would be the seventh win in a row for the Broncos as they continue their win streak. Denver is holding a tight grip on the top of their division and will not need many more wins to secure the top heading into the postseason.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marc David | +521.00 |
| 2 |  Rob Vincilleti | +502.00 |
| 3 |  Bruce Marshall | +471.00 |
| 4 |  Patty Reyes | +400.00 |
| 5 |  Mike Lundin | +288.00 |
Denver, while they are winning week after week, has this troublesome issue. While they are winning, the Broncos are falling behind in most of the games they play, forcing themselves to play from behind and have these comeback wins. A prime example of this was their week nine matchup against the Texans, which saw Denver allow 12 points in the first half while only scoring 7. Denver would bounce back in the fourth quarter and grab 11 points, securing the win over the Texans. This is concerning moving forward as it is not indicative of a team leading their division.
While most would think quarterback Bo Nix would be leading the offense, it has surprisingly been running back J.K. Dobbins who has been generating many yards for the Denver offense. Dobbins leads the team in rushing yards with 77.2 per game and has four touchdowns across his 10 games played. He's banged up this week with a foot injury and may not play so expect more from RJ Harvey, who has 214 yards rushing and two TDs. Bo Nix does have 18 touchdowns in his ten games played, but it has been Dobbins who has gotten Nix into the red zone game after game.
Injuries:
- John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable
- Marvin Mims Jr. WR Questionable
- J.K. Dobbins RB Questionable
- Alex Singleton LB Out
- Pat Surtain II CB Questionable
- Nate Adkins TE Questionable
- Garret Wallow LB Injured Reserve
Karene Reid LB Injured Reserve
Chiefs versus Broncos Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick for Chiefs versus Broncos
- Broncos +3.5 (-102) (5 units)
The Broncos have a record of 4-0 against the spread in their last four games versus the Chiefs at home. The Chiefs are 1-3 on the road this season. The Chiefs tend to struggle against teams that have a decent defense and reliable offense. Pacheco and Worth could be big losses for the Chiefs. The Broncos match the Chiefs in every stat, but just better, and while the Broncos are more focused on their run game, the Broncos’ pass defense is one of the better ones in the league, which should keep Patrick Mahomes in check. This is likely going to be a close game and I have to take the home underdog to cover their spread.
Over/Under Pick for Chiefs versus Broncos
- Under 44.5 (-105) (4 units)
The Broncos have an over/under record of 0-4 in their last four games versus the Chiefs. The Chiefs have an over/under record of 3-6 this season. Both teams have made a name for themselves this season thanks to their defense. While both offenses have generated points, it is largely due to the increased possessions that their defense has given them. In a game where both defenses are reliable, we should expect a lower-scoring game with neither team running away with this match.
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