Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Picks for Monday, October 6th, 2025
Use Code SSWC We’re closing out the NFL week in Florida, and we are making sure you are ready to roll with our Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions for Monday night. Kansas City (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) was a 2.5-point underdog at home last weekend against Baltimore but ran away with a 37-20 victory to silence its critics. Jacksonville (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) won at San Francisco last weekend, 26-21, as +3.5 underdogs. Kickoff from EverBank Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 EST and if you need more quality winners for this week and beyond, this is the ultimate site for NFL Picks.
Chiefs' demise greatly exaggerated
People were quick to bury the Chiefs after a 0-2 SU start to the season, but the defending AFC Champs proved they are far from done by rebounding with back-to-back victories, including a big win over the Ravens last weekend. The team scored in all four quarters as the offense went for 382 yards and 24 first downs. Defensively, Kansas City held Baltimore to 360 yards and 18 first downs in the win.
The Chiefs’ offense is scoring 24.3 points per game, ranking 14th in the NFL, and averaging 332.2 total yards per game, which is 16th in the league. Their passing attack has been good for 221.8 yards per game, and Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 939 yards, ninth in the league. Last week, the Chief’s QB enjoyed his best game of the season, connecting on 67.6% of his passes for 270 yards and four touchdowns. Mahomes has 7 TDs and 1 INT this season and has been sacked seven times. His top target is Hollywood Brown, who has caught 22 of the 32 passes sent his way for 209 yards and a TD. Travis Kelce has 15 catches for 182 yards and a TD. The rushing game is averaging 110.5 yards per game, with three players having over 100 yards on the ground. Mahomes has a team-high 130 rushing yards, followed by Isiah Pacheco with 127.
On the defensive end, they rank seventh in the NFL, allowing 19 points per game. They are also giving up 312.8 total yards per game and have the seventh-best passing defense, allowing just 185.8 yards per game. Opponents average 127 rushing yards per game against the Chiefs, who have recorded 10 sacks to go with three interceptions. Four players have over 20 tackles, with linebacker Nick Bolton leading the team with 34. George Karlaftis had a sack and four QB hits in last weekend’s victory. The defensive end has a team-high three sacks and six tackles for loss this season.
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Injury report (with Friday’s practice participation)
- CB Kristian Fulton (ankle) limited
- WR Marquise Brown (ankle) full
- DE Michael Danna (quad) full
- QB Patrick Mahomes (groin) full
- DE Charles Omenihu (ankle) full
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) full
- T Jawaan Taylor (knee) full
- LS James Winchester (hamstring) full
- WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder) full
First month good to Jaguars
Through four games last season, the Jaguars hadn’t even tasted victory, but this time around they’ve enjoyed their best opening month of play since 2018. Despite not scoring in the first and fourth quarters, they did enough in the middle to get by the Niners last week. Offensively, they got by on just 325 yards and 18 first downs while the defense allowed 389 yards and 22 first downs.
Jacksonville’s offense is putting up 24 points a game, tied for 16th in the league, and they average 348.5 total yards per game, 10th in the NFL. They have the fourth-best rushing game in the league, averaging 144 yards per game. Travis Etienne Jr. went for 124 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries last weekend. He is third in the NFL with 392 rushing yards. The Jags’ passing attack averages 204.5 yards per game. Trevor Lawrence had his first clean game of the season last week, going without an interception or sack as he threw for 174 yards and a TD. He has only been sacked three times this season and has had 5 TDs to 4 INTs to go with his 845 passing yards. Five different players have over 100 receiving yards and tight end Brenton Strange leads the team with 19 catches and 182 yards.
The Jags’ defense has surrendered an average of 18 points per game, the fifth-best scoring defense in the game. The 316.3 yards per game allowed ranks 15th overall but their running defense ranks fourth in the league, allowing only 82.8 yards per game. Against the pass, Jacksonville is allowing 233.5 yards per game, 24th in the league. They have recorded only seven sacks, but lead the league with nine interceptions. Six different players have picked off passes and Devin Lloyd leads the pack with three interceptions. Arik Armstead is the team’s sacks leader with 2.5.
Injury report (with Friday’s practice participation)
- LB Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) DNP
- DE Travon Walker (wrist) DNP
- WR Dyami Brown (shoulder) limited
- G Ezra Cleveland (concussion/knee) limited
- OT Chuma Edoga (knee) limited
- OT Anton Harrison (elbow) limited
- OT Patrick Mekari (knee) limited
- OT Wyatt Milum (knee) limited
- S Eric Murray (neck) limited
- RB Bhayshul Tuten (shoulder) limited
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Picks
Spread Pick for Chiefs vs. Jaguars
- Kansas City -3.5 (5 units)
These teams last met in 2023, a game the Chiefs won by eight points as -3 favorites in Jacksonville. It looks as if the Jags are finally starting to live up to some of the expectations put on them over the past few years. They haven’t been particularly overpowering on the offensive end, but defense has been strong. Unfortunately, it looks like they are going head-on against a Chiefs team that, after losing their first two games, is looking to prove everyone who counted them out wrong. Their blowout win over Baltimore was an impressive display and showed that no matter who he has around him, Mahomes is always a threat to pull out a victory. They keep opponents guessing. Last week, they handed the ball off to five different running backs, which is something that will be key in a game that is expected to be rainy. Kelce is also starting to get his hands back on him, which only amplifies what the rest of the K.C. receiving corps can do. Kansas City is 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last ten games between these two.
Take the Chiefs giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for Chiefs vs. Jaguars
- Under 45.5 (4 units)
These two teams tallied a combined 26 points when they last met two seasons ago. There are certainly plenty of offensive weapons capable of sparking an explosion of points in this matchup, but these two offenses are in the middle-of-the-pack in the league in terms of scoring this season. Kansas City is coming off their biggest offensive performance of the season, but it won’t need to do so much here. Given the rain in the forecast, I’m guessing they stick a little closer to their running game. I expect the same from Jacksonville, which has been relying on that side of their offense already. This will get the clock moving and the scoreboard quiet. The under is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these two.
Take the under.
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