Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 5, 2025
The NFL season is upon us, and the league has wall-to-wall action this weekend spanning four days (Th, F, Su, M). Friday’s standalone game in Brazil features a divisional clash between the Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) and the Los Angeles Chargers (0-0). We’ve got you covered with our Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 ET from Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Chiefs Looking to Dominate Again in 2025
The Kansas City Chiefs have been a juggernaut in the NFL landscape in recent years, and Coach Andy Reid and his crew are looking to make it to their fourth consecutive Super Bowl. The organization has been to seven consecutive AFC Championships, and they’ve won the Super Bowl three times during the span. From a sports betting perspective, Kansas City is priced at +850 to win the Super Bowl, while coming in at -110 to win the AFC West.
In terms of personnel, it’ll be the great Patrick Mahomes under center again in 2025. The superstar quarterback wasn’t overpowering last season, but threw for a respectable 3,928 yards while adding 26 touchdowns and 11 picks. RB Isiah Pacheco is healthy and leads the running back group. He logged only 310 rushing yards and one touchdown across seven games last season. Out wide, the Chiefs will be without WR Rashee Rice (suspension), but they will have WRs Hollywood Brown (91 yards), JuJu Smith-Schuster (231 yards, 2 TD), and Xavier Worthy (638 yards, 6 TD). TE Travis Kelce (823 yards, 3 TD) also returns.
- The Chiefs were a mid-tier group offensively last season, ranking 12th in scoring (23.1 PPG) and 19th in yards per game (322.0).
- On the defensive side, Kansas City ranked sixth in points given up per game (20.5), while limiting their opposition to 328.2 yards per contest (10th).
- Injury Report: DT Omarr Norman-Lott (ankle) is listed as questionable, while the following players are confirmed out: WR Jalen Royals (knee), S Nazeeh Johnson (shoulder), LB Brandon George (undisclosed), OT Ethan Driskell (appendix), TE Jake Briningstool (hamstring), DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah (hamstring), S Deon Bush (Achilles), DE Janarius Robinson (foot), CB Eric Scott Jr. (undisclosed), and RB Keaontay Ingram (undiscloseD).
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Chargers Make Playoffs Under Harbaugh
Meanwhile, the vibes are high entering the new season for the Los Angeles Chargers. The organization punched a ticket to the playoffs last season under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh, but the Bolts got hammered in the wild card round by the Texans (32-12) and had an early departure. Los Angeles returns both coordinators, as Greg Roman and Jesse Minter will lead the offense and defense, respectively. The Chargers are priced as high as +370 to win the AFC West, and if you’re looking for a longshot ticket, you can find them at +3000 to win the Super Bowl.
Justin Herbert will handle the quarterbacking responsibilities this year, and he’s coming off of a campaign where he logged 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. His top target, Ladd McConkey (1,149 yards, 7 TD), will head up a questionable receiving group, while Quentin Johnston (711 yards, 8 TD) and Keenan Allen (744 yards, 7 TD) slot in behind on the depth chart. RB J.K. Dobbins departed in the offseason, which means Omarion Hampton, a first-round pick out of North Carolina, will spearhead the rushing attack. Los Angeles boasts the 10th-best offensive line, per PFF.
- Los Angeles ranked a modest 13th in scoring (23.0 PPG) last season, while coming in at 20th in yards per game (320.7).
- Defensively, the Chargers were lights out last year, ranking second in defensive scoring (18.5 PAPG) and 11th in yards allowed per contest (330.2).
- Injury Report: CB Elijay Molden (undisclosed) is listed as questionable, while each of the following players are confirmed out: CB Eric Rogers (undisclosed), CB Deane Leonard (leg), LS Josh Harris (undisclosed), LB Junior Colson (shoulder), CB Jordan Oladokun (undisclosed), OT Rashawn Slater (knee), and DT Josh Fuga (undisclosed).
Kansas City -3.0 (-115) (5 units)
When it comes to betting football, it’s all about being on the right side of key numbers. This is a spot where I think it’s imperative to lock in a -3.0 with the Chiefs, as we are starting to see a few -3.5s populate at several sportsbooks. These are two physical, familiar division foes, so we should be in for a tight game. With all of that being said, we’ll want to lock in Kansas City at -3.0 so that we have “push potential” in case the game lands 20-17, 17-14, 24-21, etc.
My biggest gripe with the Chargers is their receiving room. If they find themselves trailing by 7+ points in this game, I simply don’t believe that they have the offensive firepower to keep pace. Additionally, we know Coach Harbaugh wants to run the ball and play physically. There’s no denying that the Bolts have a top-tier tackle in Joe Alt, but they do have some question marks on the interior offensive line and also just lost OT Rashawn Slater (knee) for the season. That may not work out well for them against DT Chris Jones and this Kansas City defense that was sixth against the run (4.1 YPC) last year. These are two elite defenses, but the big separator in this one is difference in offensive skilled positions. I’m taking the Chiefs -3.0.
Under 47.0 (-115) (5 units)
These were two of the best defenses in the NFL last season. Los Angeles was second in points allowed per game (18.5), while Kansas City was sixth (20.5). When the two teams met, the Chiefs went 2-0 SU winning on the road in week four (17-10) and at home in week 15 (19-17). Honestly, I think this total is a couple points too high. I’d play the under as low as 45.5, as this feels like a game where the ceiling is 24-21.
Just to throw in another supplemental stat, the Chargers were 10th in rushing play percentage (44.91%) last season. While the Chiefs were only 23rd (41.34%), their average pass play depth was just 6.9 yards (19th). This isn’t the Kansas City offense that nails you for big play after big play anymore. They’re more of a short-yardage passing team that keeps things underneath. All things considered, I like the under in what should be a tough, divisional opener in Brazil.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
